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Savunma Harcamasındaki Değişimlerin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye için Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Modeli ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 37 Sayı: 1, 92 - 109, 14.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.835979

Öz

Savunma harcamasının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu ya da olumsuz etkileri olduğuna dair teorik açıklamalar ve bu açıklamaları destekleyen uygulamalı çalışmalar bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1960-2019 dönemi için Türkiye’de savunma harcamasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış model (NARDL) tahmin edilerek ve asimetrik nedensellik testi (Hatemi-J testi) yapılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu yöntemler yoluyla savunma harcamasındaki artma veya azalma yönündeki değişimlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri ayrıştırılmış olmaktadır. Hem NARDL model bulguları hem de asimetrik nedensellik test sonuçları savunma harcamasının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde asimetrik etkilerinin olduğunu, savunma harcamasındaki artışın büyüme üzerinde etkisi yok iken, savunma harcamasındaki azalmanın anlamlı bir etkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Bunun yanında, Türkiye’de bu örneklem dönemi için, elde edilen uzun dönem esneklik katsayıları savunma harcamasındaki azalmanın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur

Kaynakça

  • Akal, M., Dogruyol, A. ve Bilisli, K. (2011). Sanghay İşbirliği Örgütü Ve Türkiye-Iran Savunma Harcamaları Nedenselliği Testi. Akademik Bakış Dergisi, Sayı 23, 1-15
  • Ali, M.A. ve Ather, M. (2015). Impact of defence expenditure on economic growth: time series evidence from Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 14(9), 27-31.
  • Alptekin, V. (2012). Benoit Hipotezi: Seçilmiş Oecd Ülkeleri Ölçeğinde Panel Veriler Yardımıyla Analizi. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), 204-215.
  • Ball, N. (1983). Defence and development: a critique of the Benoit study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31(3), 507-524.
  • Basar, S. ve Kunu, S.S. (2012). Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Büyümeye Etkisi. Kafkas Üniveristesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitusu Dergisi, 1(10), 1-30.
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in LDCs. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26, 271-280.
  • Bilgin, T., ve Korkmaz, Ö. (2017). Askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin karşılaştırmalı analizi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (IJEAS), 18, 289-316.
  • Biswas, B. (1993). Defense Spending and Economic Growth in LCDs: In Defense Spending and Economic Growth. Ed. James E. Payne and Anandi P. Sahu. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
  • Candar, Ö. (2003). Military expenditures and economic growth in Turkey. doctoral dissertation, Department of Management, Institute of Economics and Social Sciences, Bilkent University.
  • Cappelen, A., Gleditsch, N.P. ve Bjerkholt, O. (1987). Military Spending and Economic Growth in OECD Countries. Journal of Peace Research 21, 361-73.
  • Chan, S. (1987). Military Expenditures and Economic Performance. World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, Washington, DC: U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.
  • Deger, S. ve Smith, R. (1983). Military Expenditure and Growth in LDCs. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27, 335-353.
  • Deger, S. ve Sen, S. (1995). Military Expenditures and Third World Countries. Handbook of Defense Economics. Ed. K.Hartley and T. Sandler, BV Amsterdam: Elseiver Science.
  • DeGrasse, Robert, W. Jr. (1983). Military Expansion Economic Decline: The Impact of Military Spending on U.S. Economic Performance. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe.
  • Demir, A. (2011). Türkiye’de İl Bazında Sivil ve Askeri Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Mekânsal Ekonometri Yaklaşımı. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1).
  • Dunne, J.P. ve Nikolaidou, E. (2012). Defence spending and economic growth in the EU15. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
  • Dunne, Paul, J., Nikolaiodu E., ve Voguas, D. (2001). A Defense Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12, 5-26.
  • Elveren, A.Y. (2016). Military expenditures and profit rates: evidence from OECD countries. Metroeconomica, 67(3), 551-577.
  • Görkem, Hilal ve Işık, S. (2008). Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki. Marmara Üniversitesi I.I.B.F Dergisi, 25(2), 405-424
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012), Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application, Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Jalil, A., Abbasi, H.K.N. ve Bibi, N. (2016). Military expenditures and economic growth: allowing structural breaks in time series analysis in the case of India and Pakistan. Quality & Quantity, 50(4), 1487-1505.
  • Kalyoncu, H. ve Yucel, F. (2006). An analytical approach on defence expenditure and economic growth: the case of Turkey and Greece. Journal of Economic Studies, 33(5), 336-343.
  • Khalid, M.A. ve Noor, Z.M. (2015). Military expenditure and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from system GMM estimates. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), 31-39.
  • Kennedy, Gavin (1983). Defense Economics. New York: St. Matins Press.
  • Larrosa, J. (2016). Arms build-up and arms race in optimal economic growth. International Journal of Economic Theory, 12(2), 167-182.
  • Lee, J., Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics,85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lipow, J. ve Antinori, C.M. (1995). External security threats, defence expenditures, and the economic growth of less-developed countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 17(6), 579-595.
  • Looney, R.E. (1989). Recent research on defence spending and growth and implications for third world disarmament. Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, 11(1), 1-11.
  • Malizard, J. (2010). Causality between economic growth and military expenditure: the case of France. Defence & Security Analysis, 26(4), 401-413.
  • Özmucur, S. (1996). The Peace Dividend in Turkey. The Peace Dividend. Ed. Nils P.Gleditsch et al., Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Özsoy, Onur (2000). The Defense-Growth Relation: Evidence from Turkey. The Economics of Regional Security: NATO, the Mediterranean, and Southern Africa. Ed. Jurgen Brauer and Keith Hartley. Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers.
  • Pan, C.I., Chang, T. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015). Military spending and economic growth in the Middle East countries: bootstrap panel causality test. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443-456.
  • Ram, Raiti (1993). Conceptual Linkages between Defense Spending and Economic Growth and Development: A Selective View in Defense Spending and Economic Growth. Ed. James E. Payne and Anandi P. Sahib. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
  • Sezgin, S. (1997). Country Survey X: Defense Spending in Turkey. Defense and Peace Economics 8, 381-409
  • Sezgin, S. ve Yıldırım, J. (2002). A System Estimation of Defence- Growth Relation in Turkey. Working Paper, 2002.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B. ve Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework in Sickles, R.C. and Horrance. W.C. (Eds), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, NY, 281-314.
  • Sweezy, P.M. (2004). Monopoly capitalism. Monthly Review, 56(5), 78-86.
  • Tekeoglu, E. (2008). Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth: Empirical Study on Case of Turkey. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.
  • Topal, M. H. (2018). Türkiye’de askeri harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin bir analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi, 174, 175-202.
  • Töngür, Ü. ve Elveren, A.Y. (2017). The nexus of economic growth, military expenditures, and income inequality. Quality & Quantity, 1-22
  • Weede, Eric (1983). Military Participation Ratios, Human Capital Formation, and Economic Growth: A Cross National Analysis. Journal of Political and Military Sociology 11, 11-19.
  • Yilanci, V. ve Özcan, B. (2010). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye için Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi. ÇÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 11.(1).
  • Yurttancikmaz, Z., Caglar, A. A. ve Emsen, Ö.S. (2012). Askeri Harcamalar ve Ambargonun Ekonomik Buyumeye Etkileri: Iran Uzerine Bir Uygulama. Ataturk University Journal Of Economics and Administrative Sciences 26.(2).
  • Zivot, E., ve Andrews, D. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Grash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis, Journal Of Business And Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.

Effects of Defense Spending Changes on Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Cointegration Model and Asymmetric Causality Test for Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 37 Sayı: 1, 92 - 109, 14.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.835979

Öz

There have been various arguments claiming that defense spending has positive or negative effects on economic growth and there have been plenty of researches supporting these cross arguments. In this paper, the effect the defense spending on the economic growth within the period of 1960-2019 is being analyzed for Turkey. For this aim, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) has been estimated and Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test has been imposed. The effects of the increases or decreases in defense spending on economic growth are decomposed by using these methods. The results derived from the NARDL estimations and asymmetric causality test supported that there are asymmetric effects of the changes in defense spending on economic growth. Both methods indicated that increase in defense spending does not have any effect on growth and decrease in defense spending has significant effect on growth. Besides, the resulting long run elasticities suggested that decrease in defense spending has the positive effect on the economic growth for the sample period.

Kaynakça

  • Akal, M., Dogruyol, A. ve Bilisli, K. (2011). Sanghay İşbirliği Örgütü Ve Türkiye-Iran Savunma Harcamaları Nedenselliği Testi. Akademik Bakış Dergisi, Sayı 23, 1-15
  • Ali, M.A. ve Ather, M. (2015). Impact of defence expenditure on economic growth: time series evidence from Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 14(9), 27-31.
  • Alptekin, V. (2012). Benoit Hipotezi: Seçilmiş Oecd Ülkeleri Ölçeğinde Panel Veriler Yardımıyla Analizi. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), 204-215.
  • Ball, N. (1983). Defence and development: a critique of the Benoit study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31(3), 507-524.
  • Basar, S. ve Kunu, S.S. (2012). Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Büyümeye Etkisi. Kafkas Üniveristesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitusu Dergisi, 1(10), 1-30.
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in LDCs. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26, 271-280.
  • Bilgin, T., ve Korkmaz, Ö. (2017). Askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin karşılaştırmalı analizi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (IJEAS), 18, 289-316.
  • Biswas, B. (1993). Defense Spending and Economic Growth in LCDs: In Defense Spending and Economic Growth. Ed. James E. Payne and Anandi P. Sahu. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
  • Candar, Ö. (2003). Military expenditures and economic growth in Turkey. doctoral dissertation, Department of Management, Institute of Economics and Social Sciences, Bilkent University.
  • Cappelen, A., Gleditsch, N.P. ve Bjerkholt, O. (1987). Military Spending and Economic Growth in OECD Countries. Journal of Peace Research 21, 361-73.
  • Chan, S. (1987). Military Expenditures and Economic Performance. World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, Washington, DC: U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.
  • Deger, S. ve Smith, R. (1983). Military Expenditure and Growth in LDCs. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27, 335-353.
  • Deger, S. ve Sen, S. (1995). Military Expenditures and Third World Countries. Handbook of Defense Economics. Ed. K.Hartley and T. Sandler, BV Amsterdam: Elseiver Science.
  • DeGrasse, Robert, W. Jr. (1983). Military Expansion Economic Decline: The Impact of Military Spending on U.S. Economic Performance. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe.
  • Demir, A. (2011). Türkiye’de İl Bazında Sivil ve Askeri Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Mekânsal Ekonometri Yaklaşımı. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13(1).
  • Dunne, J.P. ve Nikolaidou, E. (2012). Defence spending and economic growth in the EU15. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 537-548.
  • Dunne, Paul, J., Nikolaiodu E., ve Voguas, D. (2001). A Defense Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12, 5-26.
  • Elveren, A.Y. (2016). Military expenditures and profit rates: evidence from OECD countries. Metroeconomica, 67(3), 551-577.
  • Görkem, Hilal ve Işık, S. (2008). Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki. Marmara Üniversitesi I.I.B.F Dergisi, 25(2), 405-424
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012), Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application, Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Jalil, A., Abbasi, H.K.N. ve Bibi, N. (2016). Military expenditures and economic growth: allowing structural breaks in time series analysis in the case of India and Pakistan. Quality & Quantity, 50(4), 1487-1505.
  • Kalyoncu, H. ve Yucel, F. (2006). An analytical approach on defence expenditure and economic growth: the case of Turkey and Greece. Journal of Economic Studies, 33(5), 336-343.
  • Khalid, M.A. ve Noor, Z.M. (2015). Military expenditure and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from system GMM estimates. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), 31-39.
  • Kennedy, Gavin (1983). Defense Economics. New York: St. Matins Press.
  • Larrosa, J. (2016). Arms build-up and arms race in optimal economic growth. International Journal of Economic Theory, 12(2), 167-182.
  • Lee, J., Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics,85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lipow, J. ve Antinori, C.M. (1995). External security threats, defence expenditures, and the economic growth of less-developed countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 17(6), 579-595.
  • Looney, R.E. (1989). Recent research on defence spending and growth and implications for third world disarmament. Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, 11(1), 1-11.
  • Malizard, J. (2010). Causality between economic growth and military expenditure: the case of France. Defence & Security Analysis, 26(4), 401-413.
  • Özmucur, S. (1996). The Peace Dividend in Turkey. The Peace Dividend. Ed. Nils P.Gleditsch et al., Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Özsoy, Onur (2000). The Defense-Growth Relation: Evidence from Turkey. The Economics of Regional Security: NATO, the Mediterranean, and Southern Africa. Ed. Jurgen Brauer and Keith Hartley. Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers.
  • Pan, C.I., Chang, T. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015). Military spending and economic growth in the Middle East countries: bootstrap panel causality test. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443-456.
  • Ram, Raiti (1993). Conceptual Linkages between Defense Spending and Economic Growth and Development: A Selective View in Defense Spending and Economic Growth. Ed. James E. Payne and Anandi P. Sahib. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
  • Sezgin, S. (1997). Country Survey X: Defense Spending in Turkey. Defense and Peace Economics 8, 381-409
  • Sezgin, S. ve Yıldırım, J. (2002). A System Estimation of Defence- Growth Relation in Turkey. Working Paper, 2002.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B. ve Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework in Sickles, R.C. and Horrance. W.C. (Eds), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, NY, 281-314.
  • Sweezy, P.M. (2004). Monopoly capitalism. Monthly Review, 56(5), 78-86.
  • Tekeoglu, E. (2008). Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth: Empirical Study on Case of Turkey. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.
  • Topal, M. H. (2018). Türkiye’de askeri harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin bir analizi (1960-2016). Maliye Dergisi, 174, 175-202.
  • Töngür, Ü. ve Elveren, A.Y. (2017). The nexus of economic growth, military expenditures, and income inequality. Quality & Quantity, 1-22
  • Weede, Eric (1983). Military Participation Ratios, Human Capital Formation, and Economic Growth: A Cross National Analysis. Journal of Political and Military Sociology 11, 11-19.
  • Yilanci, V. ve Özcan, B. (2010). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye için Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi. ÇÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 11.(1).
  • Yurttancikmaz, Z., Caglar, A. A. ve Emsen, Ö.S. (2012). Askeri Harcamalar ve Ambargonun Ekonomik Buyumeye Etkileri: Iran Uzerine Bir Uygulama. Ataturk University Journal Of Economics and Administrative Sciences 26.(2).
  • Zivot, E., ve Andrews, D. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Grash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis, Journal Of Business And Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
Toplam 44 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Cevat Bilgin 0000-0002-5687-0932

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 2 Mart 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 14 Mart 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Aralık 2020
Kabul Tarihi 16 Eylül 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 37 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Bilgin, C. (2022). Savunma Harcamasındaki Değişimlerin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye için Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Modeli ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37(1), 92-109. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.835979

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İZMİR İKTİSAT DERGİSİ 2022 yılı 37. cilt 1. sayı ile birlikte sadece elektronik olarak yayınlanmaya başlamıştır.