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Türkiye Ekonomisinde İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı, Bütünleşik Talep ve Gelir Dağılımı: Post-Keynesyen Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4, 1011 - 1028, 06.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1271760

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığının bütünleşik talep ve gelirin fonksiyonel dağılımı arasındaki ilişkiye olan etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla Stockhammer, Hein ve Grafl (2011) tarafından önerilen model kullanılmış ve 1988-2019 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisine uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye’de örneklem dönemi boyunca talep rejiminin ücret-çekişli olduğunu ve ihracatın ithalat içeriğinin analize dahil edilmesinin talep rejimini biraz daha ücret-çekişli hale getirdiğini göstermektedir. Alt dönem analizleri, toplam gelirdeki daha yüksek bir emek payının net ihracat üzerindeki olumsuz etkisinin 1995-98 alt döneminden 2008-18 alt dönemine kadar mutlak değer olarak iki katına çıkmasına rağmen özel tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki olumlu etkisinin onu dengelemekle kalmayıp aştığını, bununla birlikte özel yatırımlar üzerindeki olumsuz etkisinin alt dönemler boyunca nispeten küçük ve sabit kaldığını gösteriyor. Bulgularımız aynı zamanda ihracatın ithalat içeriğinin analize dahil edilmesinin bütün alt dönemleri bir miktar daha ücret-çekişli hale getirdiğini gösteriyor.

Kaynakça

  • Akçay, Ü., & Türel, O. (2022). Import-Substituting Industrialization Strategy and Planning Experience in Turkey, 1960–1980. E. Özçelik & Y. Özdemir (Ed.), in Political Economy of Development in Turkey: 1838–Present (p. 163-195). Singapore: Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7318-4_6
  • Akkemik, K. A. (2012). Dependence on imported inputs and implications for technology transfer in Turkey. M. A. Yülek & T.K. Taylor (Ed.), in Designing public procurement policy in developing countries: How to foster technology transfer and industrialization in the global economy (p. 173-188). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-1442-1_9
  • Bhaduri, A., & Marglin, S. (1990). Unemployment and the real wage: the economic basis for contesting political ideologies. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14(4), 375-393. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035141
  • Blecker, R. A., Cauvel, M., & Kim, Y. K. (2022). Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 46(2), 391-420. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beab052
  • Bowles, S., & Boyer, R. (1995). Wages, aggregate demand, and employment in an open economy: an empirical investigation. G.A. Epstein & H.M. Gintis (Ed.), in Macroeconomic policy after the conservative era (p. 143-71). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bölükoğlu, A. (2019). Türkiye’nin talep rejimi: Post-keynesyen ekonometrik bir analiz. Sosyoekonomi, 27(42), 163-180. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.04.09
  • Erduman, Y., Eren, O., & Gül, S. (2020). Import content of Turkish production and exports: A sectoral analysis. Central Bank Review, 20(4), 155-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.07.001
  • Hartwig, J. (2014). Testing the Bhaduri–Marglin model with OECD panel data. International Review of Applied Economics, 28(4), 419-435. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2014.896881
  • Hein, E., Lavoie, M., & van Treeck, T. (2011). Some instability puzzles in Kaleckian models of growth and distribution: a critical survey. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 35(3), 587-612. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beq026
  • Hein, E., & Tarassow, A. (2010). Distribution, aggregate demand, and productivity growth: theory and empirical results for six OECD countries based on a post-Kaleckian model. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34(4), 727-754. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep066
  • Kurt, O. E. (2020). Functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation, and productivity growth in Turkey: A post‐Kaleckian analysis. Metroeconomica, 71(4), 734-766. https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12300
  • Kurt, O. E. (2021). Instability of the US economy: A post-Kaleckian econometric analysis of functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation, and productivity growth. Metu Studies in Development, 48(December), 251-288. Retrieved from https://open.metu.edu.tr/bitstream/handle/11511/96783/1163-7321-2-PB.pdf
  • Kurt, O. E. (2022). Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Türkiye. İstanbul Journal of Economics, 72(2), 507-541. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155
  • Kurt, O. E. (2023). A Survey and an Assessment of Empirical Post-Keynesian Studies on Demand Regıme of Türkiye. Ş. Karabulut (Ed.), in Economics and Finance: Theory and Application (p. 13-26). Bursa: Ekin Yayınevi.
  • Mutlugün, B. (2022). Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression. Metroeconomica, 73(2), 583-637. https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12376
  • Naastepad, C. W. M. (2006). Technology, demand, and distribution: a cumulative growth model with an application to the Dutch productivity growth slowdown. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(3), 403-434. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bei063
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
  • Onaran, Ö., & Galanis, G. (2014). Income distribution and growth: a global model. Environment and Planning A, 46(10), 2489-2513. https://doi.org/10.1068/a46265
  • Onaran, Ö., & Obst, T. (2016). Wage-led growth in the EU15 member-states: the effects of income distribution on growth, investment, trade balance, and inflation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 40(6), 1517-1551. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bew009
  • Onaran, Ö., & Stockhammer, E. (2005). Two different export-oriented growth strategies: accumulation and distribution in Turkey and South Korea. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(1), 65-89. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2005.11052596
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2021). Input-Output Tables (IOTs) 2021 ed. Retrieved from https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IOTS_2021#
  • Palley, T. I. (2009). Imports and the income-expenditure model: implications for fiscal policy and recession fighting. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 32(2), 311-322. https://doi.org/10.2753/PKE0160-3477320211
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Saygılı, Ş., Cihan, C., Yalçın, C., & Hamsici, T. (2010). The Structure of Imports of the Turkish Manufacturing Industry. CBRT Working Papers 2010/02. Ankara: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Available at https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2010/10-02
  • Şenesen, Ü., & Günlük-Şenesen, G. (2003). Import dependency of production in Turkey: structural change from the 1970s to 1990s. Paper presented at Tenth Annual Conference of the Economic Research Forum, Cairo, Egypt, 16-18 December 2003. Available at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gulay-Gunluk-Senesen/publication/268417147_IMPORT_DEPENDENCY_OF_PRODUCTION_IN_TURKEY_STRUCTURAL_CHANGE_FROM_1970%27s_TO_1990%27s/links/54730a870cf216f8cfae96e4/IMPORT-DEPENDENCY-OF-PRODUCTION-IN-TURKEY-STRUCTURAL-CHANGE-FROM-1970s-TO-1990s.pdf
  • Stockhammer, E., Hein, E. & Grafl, L. (2011). Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany. International Review of Applied Economics, 25(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692170903426096
  • Stockhammer, E., & Onaran, Ö. (2004). Accumulation, distribution, and employment: a structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 15(4), 421-447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2003.07.002
  • Stockhammer, E., Onaran, Ö., & Ederer, S. (2009). Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area. Cambridge journal of Economics, 33(1), 139-159. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/ben026
  • Stockhammer, E., & Wildauer, R. (2016). Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 40(6), 1609-1634. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bev070
  • Yılmaz, E. (2015). Wage or profit-led growth? The case of Turkey. Journal of Economic Issues, 49(3), 814-834. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2015.1072429
  • Yükseler, Z. (2019). 1985-2012 Döneminde Türkiye Ekonomisinde Yapısal Değişim ve İthalat Bağımlılığı [Structural Change in the Turkish Economy over the 1985-2012 period and Import Dependence]. Available at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Zafer-Yuekseler/publication/332704224_1985-2012_DONEMINDE_TURKIYE_EKONOMISINDE_YAPISAL_DEGISIM_VE_ITHALAT_BAGIMLILIGI/links/5cc46a3ea6fdcc1d49b46427/1985-2012-DOeNEMINDE-TUeRKIYE-EKONOMISINDE-YAPISAL-DEGISIM-VE-ITHALAT-BAGIMLILIGI.pdf

Import Dependence of Exports, Aggregate Demand and Income Distribution in the Turkish Economy: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4, 1011 - 1028, 06.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1271760

Öz

This study aims to investigate the impact of import dependence on exports on the relation between aggregate demand and functional distribution of income in the Turkish economy. To achieve this, the model proposed by Stockhammer, Hein, and Grafl (2011) was employed and applied to the Turkish economy throughout 1988-2019. The findings indicate that the demand regime was wage-led in Türkiye throughout the sample period, and the integration of import content of exports into the analysis renders the demand regime even slightly more wage-led. Subperiod analyses show that even though the negative effect of a higher labor share in total income on net exports has doubled in absolute value from the 1995-98 subperiod to the 2008-18 subperiod, the positive effect of a higher labor share on private consumption expenditures did not only counterbalance but exceeded it, while its negative effect on private investment remained relatively small and constant over the subperiods. Our findings also show that the integration of import content of exports into the analysis also rendered all the subperiods moderately more wage-led.

Teşekkür

I would like to thank A. A. Elbakyan for her invaluable contributions.

Kaynakça

  • Akçay, Ü., & Türel, O. (2022). Import-Substituting Industrialization Strategy and Planning Experience in Turkey, 1960–1980. E. Özçelik & Y. Özdemir (Ed.), in Political Economy of Development in Turkey: 1838–Present (p. 163-195). Singapore: Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7318-4_6
  • Akkemik, K. A. (2012). Dependence on imported inputs and implications for technology transfer in Turkey. M. A. Yülek & T.K. Taylor (Ed.), in Designing public procurement policy in developing countries: How to foster technology transfer and industrialization in the global economy (p. 173-188). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-1442-1_9
  • Bhaduri, A., & Marglin, S. (1990). Unemployment and the real wage: the economic basis for contesting political ideologies. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14(4), 375-393. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035141
  • Blecker, R. A., Cauvel, M., & Kim, Y. K. (2022). Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 46(2), 391-420. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beab052
  • Bowles, S., & Boyer, R. (1995). Wages, aggregate demand, and employment in an open economy: an empirical investigation. G.A. Epstein & H.M. Gintis (Ed.), in Macroeconomic policy after the conservative era (p. 143-71). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bölükoğlu, A. (2019). Türkiye’nin talep rejimi: Post-keynesyen ekonometrik bir analiz. Sosyoekonomi, 27(42), 163-180. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.04.09
  • Erduman, Y., Eren, O., & Gül, S. (2020). Import content of Turkish production and exports: A sectoral analysis. Central Bank Review, 20(4), 155-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.07.001
  • Hartwig, J. (2014). Testing the Bhaduri–Marglin model with OECD panel data. International Review of Applied Economics, 28(4), 419-435. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2014.896881
  • Hein, E., Lavoie, M., & van Treeck, T. (2011). Some instability puzzles in Kaleckian models of growth and distribution: a critical survey. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 35(3), 587-612. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beq026
  • Hein, E., & Tarassow, A. (2010). Distribution, aggregate demand, and productivity growth: theory and empirical results for six OECD countries based on a post-Kaleckian model. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34(4), 727-754. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep066
  • Kurt, O. E. (2020). Functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation, and productivity growth in Turkey: A post‐Kaleckian analysis. Metroeconomica, 71(4), 734-766. https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12300
  • Kurt, O. E. (2021). Instability of the US economy: A post-Kaleckian econometric analysis of functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation, and productivity growth. Metu Studies in Development, 48(December), 251-288. Retrieved from https://open.metu.edu.tr/bitstream/handle/11511/96783/1163-7321-2-PB.pdf
  • Kurt, O. E. (2022). Debt, Wealth, Income Distribution and Demand: A post-Keynesian Empirical Study on Türkiye. İstanbul Journal of Economics, 72(2), 507-541. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1176155
  • Kurt, O. E. (2023). A Survey and an Assessment of Empirical Post-Keynesian Studies on Demand Regıme of Türkiye. Ş. Karabulut (Ed.), in Economics and Finance: Theory and Application (p. 13-26). Bursa: Ekin Yayınevi.
  • Mutlugün, B. (2022). Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression. Metroeconomica, 73(2), 583-637. https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12376
  • Naastepad, C. W. M. (2006). Technology, demand, and distribution: a cumulative growth model with an application to the Dutch productivity growth slowdown. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(3), 403-434. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bei063
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
  • Onaran, Ö., & Galanis, G. (2014). Income distribution and growth: a global model. Environment and Planning A, 46(10), 2489-2513. https://doi.org/10.1068/a46265
  • Onaran, Ö., & Obst, T. (2016). Wage-led growth in the EU15 member-states: the effects of income distribution on growth, investment, trade balance, and inflation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 40(6), 1517-1551. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bew009
  • Onaran, Ö., & Stockhammer, E. (2005). Two different export-oriented growth strategies: accumulation and distribution in Turkey and South Korea. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(1), 65-89. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2005.11052596
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2021). Input-Output Tables (IOTs) 2021 ed. Retrieved from https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IOTS_2021#
  • Palley, T. I. (2009). Imports and the income-expenditure model: implications for fiscal policy and recession fighting. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 32(2), 311-322. https://doi.org/10.2753/PKE0160-3477320211
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Saygılı, Ş., Cihan, C., Yalçın, C., & Hamsici, T. (2010). The Structure of Imports of the Turkish Manufacturing Industry. CBRT Working Papers 2010/02. Ankara: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Available at https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2010/10-02
  • Şenesen, Ü., & Günlük-Şenesen, G. (2003). Import dependency of production in Turkey: structural change from the 1970s to 1990s. Paper presented at Tenth Annual Conference of the Economic Research Forum, Cairo, Egypt, 16-18 December 2003. Available at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gulay-Gunluk-Senesen/publication/268417147_IMPORT_DEPENDENCY_OF_PRODUCTION_IN_TURKEY_STRUCTURAL_CHANGE_FROM_1970%27s_TO_1990%27s/links/54730a870cf216f8cfae96e4/IMPORT-DEPENDENCY-OF-PRODUCTION-IN-TURKEY-STRUCTURAL-CHANGE-FROM-1970s-TO-1990s.pdf
  • Stockhammer, E., Hein, E. & Grafl, L. (2011). Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany. International Review of Applied Economics, 25(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692170903426096
  • Stockhammer, E., & Onaran, Ö. (2004). Accumulation, distribution, and employment: a structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 15(4), 421-447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2003.07.002
  • Stockhammer, E., Onaran, Ö., & Ederer, S. (2009). Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area. Cambridge journal of Economics, 33(1), 139-159. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/ben026
  • Stockhammer, E., & Wildauer, R. (2016). Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 40(6), 1609-1634. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bev070
  • Yılmaz, E. (2015). Wage or profit-led growth? The case of Turkey. Journal of Economic Issues, 49(3), 814-834. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2015.1072429
  • Yükseler, Z. (2019). 1985-2012 Döneminde Türkiye Ekonomisinde Yapısal Değişim ve İthalat Bağımlılığı [Structural Change in the Turkish Economy over the 1985-2012 period and Import Dependence]. Available at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Zafer-Yuekseler/publication/332704224_1985-2012_DONEMINDE_TURKIYE_EKONOMISINDE_YAPISAL_DEGISIM_VE_ITHALAT_BAGIMLILIGI/links/5cc46a3ea6fdcc1d49b46427/1985-2012-DOeNEMINDE-TUeRKIYE-EKONOMISINDE-YAPISAL-DEGISIM-VE-ITHALAT-BAGIMLILIGI.pdf
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ozan Ekin Kurt 0000-0003-4943-5681

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 16 Ekim 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 6 Aralık 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 27 Mart 2023
Kabul Tarihi 19 Temmuz 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Kurt, O. E. (2023). Import Dependence of Exports, Aggregate Demand and Income Distribution in the Turkish Economy: A Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 38(4), 1011-1028. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1271760

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