Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Portfolio Investments in Turkish Economy

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 39 Sayı: 1, 219 - 236, 02.03.2024

Oğuzhan Ece , Bülent Diclehan Çadırcı

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1326586

Öz

This study aims to analyze the impact of geopolitical risks faced by the Turkish economy on international portfolio investments. Since it is thought that these risks may have asymmetric effects, the study utilizes the NARDL methodology. Based on this situation, the BDS linearity test was employed to assess the variables, revealing the presence of a non-linear structure in the time series. As a result of the NARDL analysis, it is observed that the long-run and short-run effects of geopolitical risks differ, and the asymmetric relationship, which is moderate in the short-run, turns into a symmetric structure in the long-run. In this framework, it is concluded that international portfolio investors increase their investments to take advantage of return opportunities in the short run in the face of increased geopolitical risk, but prefer safe economies in the long run. The Turkish economy, in order to reassure investors, is of great importance to increase transparency in the fields of economy, justice, and governance, to ensure and strengthen the independence of institutions, and especially to put economic policies on a rational basis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Capital flows, Portfolio Investments, Geopolitical risks, NARDL

Türkiye Ekonomisinde Jeopolitik Risklerin Portföy Yatırımları Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkilerinin İncelenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye ekonomisinin karşı karşıya kaldığı jeopolitik risklerin uluslararası portföy yatırımları üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Söz konusu risklerin asimetrik etkilerinin var olabileceği düşünüldüğünden çalışmada NARDL metodolojisine başvurulmuştur. Bu duruma istinaden değişkenlere BDS doğrusallık testi uygulanmış ve zaman serilerinin doğrusal olmayan bir yapı sergilediği görülmüştür. NARDL analizi sonucunda jeopolitik risklerin uzun ve kısa dönem etkilerinin farklılaştığı, kısa dönemde orta çıkan asimetrik ilişkinin uzun dönemde simetrik bir yapıya büründüğü görülmüştür. Bu çerçevede uluslararası portföy yatırımcılarının jeopolitik risk artışı karşısında kısa vadede getiri fırsatlarından yararlanmak için yatırımlarını artırdığı ancak uzun vadede güvenli ülke ekonomilerini tercih ettiği soncuna ulaşılmıştır. Türkiye ekonomisinin yatırımcılara güven verilebilmesi adına ekonomi, adalet ve yönetim alanlarında şeffaflığın artırılması, kurumların bağımsızlığının sağlanıp güçlendirilmesi ve özellikle iktisadi politikaların rasyonel zemine oturtulması büyük önem arz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sermaye akımları, Portföy Yatırımları, Jeopolitik risk, NARDL

Kaynakça

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