Türkiye'de Çevre ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Bağlantının Çözülmesi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 39 Sayı: 1, 275 - 293, 02.03.2024

Fatty Masanneh Büşra Ağan

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1356044

Öz

Bu çalışma, 1971'den 2021'e kadar yıllık verileri kullanarak Türkiye'de karbondioksit (CO2) emisyonları, ekonomik büyüme, enerji kullanımı ve sanayileşme arasındaki kısa ve uzun vadeli ve nedensel bağlantıları incelemektedir. Makalede eş bütünleşme otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) modeli kullanılmaktadır. Değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir bağlantının varlığını gösteren ve ekonomik büyüme, enerji kullanımı ve sanayileşmenin tahmin edilen uzun vadeli katsayısı, CO2 emisyonlarında sırasıyla -0,726, 0,563 ve 0,548 değişim duyarlılığı sergiler. Hata düzeltme terimi -0,563'tür ve eş bütünleşme-ARDL modeli altında %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde anlamlıdır; bu da değişkenler arasındaki uzun vadeli dengeden sapmaların düzeltme yoluyla yıllık neredeyse %56,3 oranında giderilebileceğini göstermektedir. Başka bir deyişle uyum katsayılarının hızı, dengesizlik oluştuğunda ayarlamaların dengeye dönmesinin neredeyse 2 yıl sürdüğünü göstermektedir. Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testi sanayileşmeden karbon emisyonlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgu, sanayileşmenin Türkiye'de çevre kalitesine zarar verdiğini; bu nedenle Türkiye'nin sürdürülebilir endüstriyel kalkınmaya öncelik vermesi ve yeşil teknolojileri benimsemesi büyük önem taşımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji Kullanımı, Sanayileşme, ARDL Eşbütünleşme Modeli, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik, Türkiye

Unraveling the Link Between Environment and Economic Growth in Türkiye

Öz

This study examines the short and long-run and causative interconnections between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic growth, energy use, and industrialization in Türkiye using yearly data from 1971 to 2021. The paper employs the cointegration autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which indicates the presence of a long-run nexus between the variables and the estimated long-run coefficient of economic growth, energy use, and industrialization exhibit a sensitivity of -0.726, 0.563, and 0.548 changes in CO2 emissions respectively. The error-correction term is -0.563 and significant at a 1% significance level under the cointegration-ARDL model, suggesting that the deviations from the long-run equilibrium between the variables will be addressed through correction by almost 56.3% yearly. In other words, the speed of adjustment coefficients indicates that when disequilibrium occurs, adjustments returning to equilibrium take almost two years. The Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality test indicates a unidirectional causal link from industrialization to CO2 emissions. This finding implies that industrialization harms environmental quality in Türkiye; therefore, Türkiye must prioritize sustainable industrial development and embrace green technologies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy Use, Industrialization, ARDL Cointegration Model, Toda-Yamamoto Causality, Türkiye

Kaynakça

• Acaravci, A. and Ozturk, I. (2010). On the Relationship between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Europe. Energy, 35, 5412-5420.
• Aftab, S., Ahmed, A., Chandio, A. A., Korankye, B. A., Ali, A., & Fang, W. (2021). Modelling the nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic progress in Pakistan: Evidence from cointegration and causality analysis. Energy Reports, 7, 4642–4658. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.07.020
• Agan, B. and Balcilar, M. (2023). Unraveling the Green Growth Matrix: Exploring the Impact of Green Technology, Climate Change Adaptation, and Macroeconomic Factors on Sustainable Development. Sustainability, 15, 8530.
• Ahsan Akbar, Alam Rehman, Irfan Ullah, Muhammad Zeeshan & Fakhr E Alam Afridi (2020) Unraveling the Dynamic Nexus Between Trade Liberalization, Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Health Expenditure in Southeast Asian Countries, Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, 13:, 1915-1927.
• Akarca, A. T., & Long, T. V. (1979). Energy and employment: a time-series analysis of the causal relationship. Resources and Energy, 2(2–3), 151–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-0572(79)90027-6.
• Altinay, G. and Karagol, E. (2004). Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey. Energy Economics, 26(6), 985–994. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2004.07.001
• Amri F (2017) Carbon dioxide emissions output and energy consumption categories in Algeria. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24:14567–14578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-8984-7
• Armeanu D, Vintilă G, Andrei JV, Gherghina ŞC, Drăgoi MC, Teodor C. (2018). Exploring the link between environmental pollution and economic growth in EU-28 countries: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve? PLoS ONE 13(5).
• Apergis, N. and Payne, J. E. (2010). Renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Energy Policy, 38(1), 656–660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.002
• Awan, A. G. (2013). Relatıonshıp Between Environment and Sustaınable Economıc Development: A Theoretical Approach to Environmental Problems. In International Journal of Asian Social Science, 3 (3).
• Begum, R. A., Raihan, A., & Said, M. N. M. (2020). Dynamic Impacts of Economic Growth and Forested Area on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Malaysia. Sustainability, 12(22), 9375. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229375
• Bekar, S. (2018). The Relationship Between Co2 Emission And Economic Growth In Turkey: 1977-2014. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 193 - 205.
• Bozkurt, C. and Akan, Y. (2014). Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions and Energy Consumption: The Turkish Case. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(3), 484-494
• Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., and Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
• Burck, J., Hagen, U., Bals, C., Höhne, N., and Nascimento, L. (2020). Climate Mitigation Efforts of 57 Countries plus the EU. Covering 90% of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
• Chen, J., Baz, K., Xu, D., Ali, H., Ali, I., Khan, I., Khan, M.M., 2020. Asymmetric impact of energy consumption and economic growth on ecological footprint: Using asymmetric and nonlinear approach. Science of The Total Environment 718, 137364. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137364.
• Cherni, A., & Essaber Jouini, S. (2017). An ARDL approach to the CO2 emissions, renewable energy and economic growth nexus: Tunisian evidence. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 42(48), 29056–29066.
• Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
• Erol, U., & H Yu, E. S. (1987). On The Causal Relatıonshıp Between Energy And Income For Industrıalızed Countrıes. In Source: The Journal of Energy and Development. 13 (1).
• Gökmenoğlu, K., & Taspinar, N. (2016). The relationship between Co2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth and FDI: the case of Turkey. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 25(5), 706–723. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2015.1119876
• Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic Growth and the Environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443
• Grossman, G., & Krueger, A. (1991). Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3914
• Halicioglu, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37(3), 1156–1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.012
• Hossain S (2012) An econometric analysis for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, foreign trade and urbanization of Japan. Low Carbon Economy 3:92–105
• IPCC_WGI-AR6. (n.d.). IPCC_WGI-AR6-Press-Release_en. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
• Jalil, A., & Feridun, M. (2011). The impact of growth, energy and financial development on the environment in China: A cointegration analysis. Energy Economics, 33(2), 284–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.10.003
• Johansen, S. J. K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money. Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 52(2)(MAY), 160–210.
• Kaika, D., & Zervas, E. (2013). The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory—Part A: Concept, causes and the CO2 emissions case. Energy Policy, 62, 1392–1402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.131
• Khan, I. Fujun Hou, Muhammad Irfan, Abdulrasheed Zakari, Hoang Phong Le. (2021). Does energy trilemma a driver of economic growth? The roles of energy use, population growth, and financial development, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 146.
• Koçak, E. (2014). Validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Turkey: ARDL Boundary Test approach. Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 2(3), 62-73.
• Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the Relationship Between Energy On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP. In Source: The Journal of Energy and Development (Vol. 3, Issue 2).
• Lean, H. H., & Smyth, R. (2010). CO2 emissions, electricity consumption and output in ASEAN. Applied Energy, 87(6), 1858–1864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.02.003
• Lise, W. (2006). Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980-2003 in Turkey. Energy Policy, 34(14), 1841–1852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.12.021
• Magazzino C, Mele M, Drago C, Kuşkaya S, Pozzi C, Monarca U. The trilemma among CO2 emissions, energy use, and economic growth in Russia. Sci Rep. 2023 Jun 23;13(1):10225. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-37251-5.
• Mehrara, M. (2007). Energy consumption and economic growth: The case of oil exporting countries. Energy Policy, 35(5), 2939–2945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.10.018
• Mikayilov, J. I., Galeotti, M., & Hasanov, F. J. (2018). The impact of economic growth on CO2 emissions in Azerbaijan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 197, 1558–1572. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.06.269
• Murshed, M., Rahman, M.A., Alam, M.S. et al. (2021). The nexus between environmental regulations, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: linking environmental patents to ecological footprint reduction in South Asia. Environ Sci Pollut Res, 28, 49967–49988
• Moftah,N. A., Dilek, S. (2021). Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Panel Of Middle Eastern Countries. Journal of Empirical Economics and Social Science, 3(1): 56-78, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.46959/jeess.651976
• Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
• National Inventory Reports. (2023). Türkiye. 2023 National Inventory Report (NIR). Retrieved May 17, 2023, from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/reporting-and-review-under-the-convention/greenhouse-gas-inventories-annex-i-parties/national-inventory-submissions-2023
• Our World in Data. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2023, from https://ourworldindata.org/
• Öztürk, I. and Acaravci, A. (2010). CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 3220-3225
• Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2010). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 3220–3225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.07.005
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
• Pesaran H. M. and Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0 : interactive econometric analysis. Oxford University Press.
• Rahman, M. M., & Kashem, M. A. (2017). Carbon emissions, energy consumption and industrial growth in Bangladesh: Empirical evidence from ARDL cointegration and Granger causality analysis. Energy Policy, 110, 600–608. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.09.006
• Raihan, A., Tuspekova, A. Dynamic impacts of economic growth, renewable energy use, urbanization, industrialization, tourism, agriculture, and forests on carbon emissions in Turkey. carbon res 1, 20 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44246-022-00019-z
• Roca, J., Padilla, E., Farré, M., & Galletto, V. (2001). Economic growth and atmospheric pollution in Spain: discussing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Ecological Economics, 39(1), 85–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(01)00195-1
• Say, N. P., & Yücel, M. (2006). Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Empirical analysis and future projection based on economic growth. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3870–3876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.08.024
• Selden, T. M., & Song, D. (1994). Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27(2), 147–162. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeem.1994.1031
• Shafik, N. (1994). ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS. In Oxford Economic Papers (Vol. 46).
• Shahbaz, M., & Lean, H. H. (2012). The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan. Energy, 39(1), 146–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.01.048
• Sikder, M., Wang, C., Yao, X., Huai, X., Wu, L., KwameYeboah, F., Wood, J., Zhao, Y., & Dou, X. (2022). The integrated impact of GDP growth, industrialization, energy use, and urbanization on CO2 emissions in developing countries: Evidence from the panel ARDL approach. Science of the Total Environment, 837. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155795
• Soytaş, U., Sari, R. (2009). Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions: Challenges Faced by an EU Candidate Member. Ecological Economics, 68, 1667-1675.
• Soytas, U., Sari, R. (2003). Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets. Energy Economics, 25(1), 33–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00009-9
• Stern, D. I. (1993). Energy and economic growth in the USA. Energy Economics, 15(2), 137–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(93)90033-N
• Stern, D. I. (2011). The role of energy in economic growth. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1219(1), 26–51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05921.x
• Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
• Tugcu, C. T., Ozturk, I., & Aslan, A. (2012). Renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption and economic growth relationship revisited: Evidence from G7 countries. Energy Economics, 34(6), 1942–1950. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.021
• TUIK. (n.d.). TÜİK Kurumsal. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-Statistics-1990-2021-49672
• UN Climate Report. (n.d.). UN climate report: It’s ‘now or never’ to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees | UN News. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115452
• UNDP. (n.d.). Türkiye | Climate Promise. Retrieved May 18, 2023, from https://climatepromise.undp.org/what-we-do/where-we-work/turkiye
• United Nations Treaty Collection. (n.d.). United Nations, Treaty Series, vol. 3156. Retrieved May 17, 2023, from https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en
• Wagner, M. (2008). The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics? Resource and Energy Economics, 30(3), 388–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2007.11.001
• Wang, Q., Zhang, F., Li, R., & Li, L. (2022). The impact of renewable energy on decoupling economic growth from ecological footprint – An empirical analysis of 166 countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 354, 131706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131706
• World Development Indicators | DataBank. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2023, from https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=World-Development-Indicators
• Zhu, L., Hao, Y., Lu, Z.-N., Wu, H., & Ran, Q. (2019). Do economic activities cause air pollution? Evidence from China’s major cities. Sustainable Cities and Society, 49, 101593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101593