Türkiye’de Ekonomik Karmaşıklık, İnsani Gelişme ve Çevresel Bozulma Arasındaki Bağlantı: QARDL Yaklaşımından Yeni Kanıtlar

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 40 Sayı: 1, 132 - 150

Kumru Türköz

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1491716

Öz

İklim değişikliği sorunlarına yenilikçi çözüm arayışlarının bir sonucu olarak çevresel bozulmanın dinamikleri farklı boyutlarıyla sıklıkla tartışılmaktadır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, 1998Q1-2020Q4 döneminde Türkiye’de ekonomik karmaşıklık, insani gelişme, enerji yoğunluğu ve çevresel bozulma arasındaki dinamik bağlantı araştırılmaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki, asimetrileri ve farklı kantillerdeki kısa ve uzun vadeli dinamikleri dikkate alan kantil otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (QARDL) yaklaşımıyla analiz edilmektedir. Ampirik bulgular; Türkiye’de ekonomik karmaşıklık, insani gelişme ve enerji yoğunluğunun (daha düşük kantillerde) uzun dönemde çevresel bozulmayı önemli ölçüde arttırdığına işaret etmektedir. Kısa dönemde ise, ekonomik karmaşıklık çevresel bozulmayı arttırmakta ancak uzun döneme kıyasla etkisi azalmakta, insani gelişme uzun dönemin aksine kısa dönemde çevresel bozulmayı azaltmakta, enerji yoğunluğu ise çevresel bozulma üzerinde anlamlı bir etki yaratmamaktadır. Bu bulgular, karmaşık bir üretim yapısının ülkenin enerji talebini artırarak fosil yakıtların daha fazla tüketilmesine ve sonuçta emisyonların artırmasına neden olabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca insani gelişmenin kalkınmanın ilk aşamalarında çevresel iyileşmeden ziyade eğitim, sağlık ve refah düzeyinin arttırılması gibi hedeflere odaklandığı söylenebilir. Bu kapsamda ülkede sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine ulaşabilmek ve küresel çevresel iyileşme çabalarına daha fazla destek verebilmek için enerji bileşiminde bir dönüşüm, enerji verimliliğinin sağlanması ve kalkınmanın ekonomik ve sosyal hedeflerinin iyileştirilmesi gerektiği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Karmaşıklık, İnsani Gelişme, Çevresel Bozulma, QARDL.

The Nexus between Economic Complexity, Human Development and Environmental Degradation in Türkiye: New Evidence from the QARDL Approach

Öz

As a result of the search for innovative solutions to climate change problems, the dynamics of environmental degradation are frequently discussed in their different dimensions. In this context, the study investigates the dynamic nexus between economic complexity, human development, energy intensity, and environmental degradation in Türkiye in the period 1998Q1-2020Q4. The relationship between variables is analyzed with the quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) approach, which takes into account asymmetries and short and long run dynamics at different quantiles. Empirical findings indicate that economic complexity, human development, and energy intensity (at lower quantiles) significantly increase environmental degradation in the long run in Türkiye. In the short run, economic complexity increases environmental degradation, but its effect decreases compared to the long run; human development reduces environmental degradation in the short run, unlike in the long run; and energy intensity does not have a significant effect on environmental degradation. These findings indicate that a complex production structure may increase the country's energy demand, causing more consumption of fossil fuels and ultimately increasing emissions. In addition, it can be said that human development focuses on goals such as increasing the level of education, health, and welfare rather than environmental improvement in the early stages of development. In this context, it is thought that a transformation in the energy mix, ensuring energy efficiency, and improving the economic and social goals of development are necessary in order to achieve sustainable development goals and to provide more support to global environmental improvement efforts in the country.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Complexity, Human Development, Environmental Degradation, QARDL.

Kaynakça

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