Araştırma Makalesi
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Yıl 2025, Cilt: 40 Sayı: 4, 1067 - 1089, 01.10.2025
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1599503

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Adıgüzel, U. (2012). Para politikasının Türkiye Ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerinin VAR yöntemleri ile ölçülmesi. (Doktora Tezi, Erciyes Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü). Kayseri
  • Akdağ, S. (2020). Ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin güven endeksleri üzerindeki etkisi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 113, 139-152.
  • Alexopoulos, M. ve Cohen, J. (2015). The Power of print: uncertainty shocks, markets and the economy. International Review of Economics and Finance, 40, 8-28.
  • Arbatli C. E., Davis, J. S., Ito, A. ve Miake, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty Japan. National Bureau of Economic Research, WP No: 23411, 1-44.
  • Athari, A. S., Kırıkkaleli, D., Yousaf, I. ve Ali, S. (2021). Time and frequency co-movement between economic policy uncertainty and ınflation: Evidence from Japan. Journal of Public Affairs, 22, 1-10.
  • Baker, R.S., Bloom, N. ve Davis, J.S. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
  • Ball, L. (1992). Why does high ınflation raise ınflation uncertainty?. Monetary Economics Journal, 29(3), 371-388.
  • Belke A. ve Osowski T. (2018). International effects of Euro area versus U.S. policy uncertainty: A FAVAR Approach. Economic Inpuiry, 57(1), 453-481.
  • Bernanke, B. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty and cyclical ınvestment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 502, 85-106.
  • Bloom, N. (2009). The ımpact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685.
  • Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153-175.
  • Brainard, C.W. (1967) .Uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy. The American Economic Review. 57, 2.
  • Čižmešija, M., Lolić, I. ve Sorić, P. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty ındex and economic activity: What causes what. Croatian Operational Research Review, 8, 563-575.
  • Damane, M. (2018). The macroeconomic ımpact of shocks in the US federal funds rate on the Republic of South Africa: an SVAR Analysis. Modern Economy, 9(4), 796-829.
  • Davis, S.J. (2016). An ındex of global economic policy uncertainty. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w22740.
  • Dixit K.A. ve Pindyck S. R. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty [Elektronik sürüm]. Princeton University Press.
  • Enders, W., Chung, P., Shao, L. ve Yuan, J. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series (2nd Edition). Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, ABD.
  • Ferrara, L. ve Guérin, P. (2016) What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks. Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper, WP No: 2016-25, 1-40.
  • Fontaine, I., Didier, L. ve Razafindravaosolonirina, J. (2018). Foreign policy uncertainty shocks and US macroeconomic activity: Evidence from China. Economics letters, 155, 121-125.
  • Friedman M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472.
  • Fry, R. ve Pagan, A. (2011). Sign restrictions in structural vector autoregressions: A critical review. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(4), 938-960.
  • Güler, E. (2005). Müzayede Teorisi, Türkiye’de Uygulaması: Telekom Örneği. (Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Uludağ Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü). Bursa
  • Gordon, J.R. (1971). Steady anticipated ınflation: Mirage or oasis?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 499-510.
  • Hartman, R. (1972). The effects of price and cost uncertainty on ınvestment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5(2), 258-266.
  • Hayali, Sarıalioğlu, A. (2021). Doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve belirsizlik arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye belirsizlik endeksi örneği. Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(123), 29-41.
  • Junttila, J. ve Vataja, J. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity. Economic Systems, 42(4), 569-583.
  • Kang, W. ve Ratti A. R. (2013). Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty. Economic Modelling, 35, 314-319.
  • Klein B. (1975). Our new monetary standard: The measurement and effects of price uncertainty, 1880-1973. Economic Inpuiry, 13(4), 461-484.
  • Lawson, T. (1988). Probability and uncertainty in economic analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 11(1), 38-65.
  • Lovato, C. (2013). On the ımpact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic expectations in the United States. Anno Accademico, 2012/13
  • Liu, Y., Zheng, Y. ve Drakeford, B. (2019). Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 3(3), 550-561.
  • Luk, P., Cheng, M. Ng, P. ve Wong, K. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in small open economies: The Case of Hong Kong. Pacific Economic Review, 25(1), 21-46.
  • Manteu, C. ve Serra, S. (2017). Impact of uncertainty measures on The Portuguese Economy. Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, 29-51.
  • Masayuki, M. (2017). Impact of policy uncertainty on consumption and saving behavior: Evidence from a survey on consumers. The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 17-E-075.
  • Netšunajev, A. ve Glass, K. (2016). Uncertainty and employment dynamics in The Euro Area and The US. Journal of Macroeconomics, 51, 48-62.
  • Okun M.A. (1971). The mirage of steady ınflation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 485-498.
  • Onafowora, O. ve Owoye, O. (2019). Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: A SVAR Analysis. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52, 157-179.
  • Rice, A., Vehbi, T. ve Wong, B. (2018). Measuring uncertainty and ıts ımpact on The New Zealand. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note Series, No: AN2018/01.
  • Romer, D.C. (1990). The great crash and the onset of the great depression. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105(3), 597-624.
  • Sevüktekin, M. ve Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi EViews Uygulamalı. Bursa: Dora Yayıncılık.
  • Stockhammar, P. ve Österholm, P. (2017). The ımpact of US uncertainty shocks on small open Economies. Open Economies Review, 28, 347-368.
  • Şahinöz S. ve Coşar E.E. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 25(21), 1517-1520.
  • Şit, M. (2022). Belirsizlik ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi: Yeni bir endeks ile panel veri analizi. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(3), 1200-1215.
  • Tümtürk, O. (2022). Global uncertainty and exchange rate volatility. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (37), 69-84.
  • Uche, E. ve Effiom, L. (2021). Fighting capital flight in Nigeria: have we considered global uncertainties and exchange rate volatilities?Fresh Insights Via Quantile ARDL Model. SN Business&Economics, 1(6), 1-22.
  • Usta, C. ve Şimşek, T. (2022). A panel cointegration test with a fourier function on economic policy uncertainty ındex and unemployment rates In G-7 Countries. Journal of International Management, Educational and Economics Perspectives, 10(2), 130-138.
  • Usta, C. ve Mete, E. (2022). Ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin makro ekonomik göstergeler üzerine etkisi: Avrupa birliği ülkeleri örneği. Karadeniz Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(27), 644-659.
  • Varlık, C. (2023). Macroeconomic effects of global uncertainty in The Turkish Economy. Press Academia Procedia, 17, 129-134.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2019). Küresel ekonomik, politik ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin makroekonomik etkileri: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine SVAR Analizi (1992:Q1-2018:Q2). Journal of Yasar University, 14(53), 56-73.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. ve Çelik, K. A. (2021). The ımpact of global uncertainties on economic growth: Evidence from the US economy (1996:Q1-2018:Q4). Romanya Ekonomik Tahmin Dergisi, 24(2), 35-54.
  • Wachtel, P. (1977). Inflation, Uncertainty and Saving Behavior. Explorations in Economic Research, 4(4), 559-578.

Ekonomik ve Politik Belirsizliklerin Makroekonomik Değişkenlere Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 40 Sayı: 4, 1067 - 1089, 01.10.2025
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1599503

Öz

Bu çalışmada genelde belirsizliklerin özelde ise ekonomik ve politik (EP) belirsizliklerin, Türkiye ekonomisinin büyüme, enflasyon ve işsizlik şeklindeki temel makroekonomik değişkenleri üzerindeki etkilerinin ampirik olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, yurtdışı EP belirsizliklerin Türkiye’nin büyüme, enflasyon, işsizlik değişkenleri üzerindeki etkileri, SVAR-1 ve SVAR-2 şeklinde tanımlanan iki farklı modelle 1998:Q1-2023:Q4 dönemi için ekonometrik olarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, EP belirsizliklerin Türkiye’nin büyüme ve işsizlik değişkenleri üzerinde olumsuz etkiler meydana getirdiği, enflasyon üzerinde ise pozitif veya negatif herhangi bir etki yaratmadığı diğer bir deyişle, EP’nin büyümeyi azalttığı, işsizliği artırdığı, enflasyonda ise istatisitiki açıdan anlamsız etkinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar EP belirsizliklerin Türkiye’nin temel makroekonomik değişkenleri için dışsal bir şok unsuru olduğunu göstermekte ve para-maliye politikası tasarımlarında bu şokların etkilerine daha fazla önem verilmesinin gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Adıgüzel, U. (2012). Para politikasının Türkiye Ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerinin VAR yöntemleri ile ölçülmesi. (Doktora Tezi, Erciyes Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü). Kayseri
  • Akdağ, S. (2020). Ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin güven endeksleri üzerindeki etkisi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 113, 139-152.
  • Alexopoulos, M. ve Cohen, J. (2015). The Power of print: uncertainty shocks, markets and the economy. International Review of Economics and Finance, 40, 8-28.
  • Arbatli C. E., Davis, J. S., Ito, A. ve Miake, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty Japan. National Bureau of Economic Research, WP No: 23411, 1-44.
  • Athari, A. S., Kırıkkaleli, D., Yousaf, I. ve Ali, S. (2021). Time and frequency co-movement between economic policy uncertainty and ınflation: Evidence from Japan. Journal of Public Affairs, 22, 1-10.
  • Baker, R.S., Bloom, N. ve Davis, J.S. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
  • Ball, L. (1992). Why does high ınflation raise ınflation uncertainty?. Monetary Economics Journal, 29(3), 371-388.
  • Belke A. ve Osowski T. (2018). International effects of Euro area versus U.S. policy uncertainty: A FAVAR Approach. Economic Inpuiry, 57(1), 453-481.
  • Bernanke, B. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty and cyclical ınvestment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 502, 85-106.
  • Bloom, N. (2009). The ımpact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685.
  • Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153-175.
  • Brainard, C.W. (1967) .Uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy. The American Economic Review. 57, 2.
  • Čižmešija, M., Lolić, I. ve Sorić, P. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty ındex and economic activity: What causes what. Croatian Operational Research Review, 8, 563-575.
  • Damane, M. (2018). The macroeconomic ımpact of shocks in the US federal funds rate on the Republic of South Africa: an SVAR Analysis. Modern Economy, 9(4), 796-829.
  • Davis, S.J. (2016). An ındex of global economic policy uncertainty. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w22740.
  • Dixit K.A. ve Pindyck S. R. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty [Elektronik sürüm]. Princeton University Press.
  • Enders, W., Chung, P., Shao, L. ve Yuan, J. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series (2nd Edition). Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, ABD.
  • Ferrara, L. ve Guérin, P. (2016) What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks. Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper, WP No: 2016-25, 1-40.
  • Fontaine, I., Didier, L. ve Razafindravaosolonirina, J. (2018). Foreign policy uncertainty shocks and US macroeconomic activity: Evidence from China. Economics letters, 155, 121-125.
  • Friedman M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472.
  • Fry, R. ve Pagan, A. (2011). Sign restrictions in structural vector autoregressions: A critical review. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(4), 938-960.
  • Güler, E. (2005). Müzayede Teorisi, Türkiye’de Uygulaması: Telekom Örneği. (Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Uludağ Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü). Bursa
  • Gordon, J.R. (1971). Steady anticipated ınflation: Mirage or oasis?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 499-510.
  • Hartman, R. (1972). The effects of price and cost uncertainty on ınvestment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5(2), 258-266.
  • Hayali, Sarıalioğlu, A. (2021). Doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve belirsizlik arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye belirsizlik endeksi örneği. Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(123), 29-41.
  • Junttila, J. ve Vataja, J. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity. Economic Systems, 42(4), 569-583.
  • Kang, W. ve Ratti A. R. (2013). Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty. Economic Modelling, 35, 314-319.
  • Klein B. (1975). Our new monetary standard: The measurement and effects of price uncertainty, 1880-1973. Economic Inpuiry, 13(4), 461-484.
  • Lawson, T. (1988). Probability and uncertainty in economic analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 11(1), 38-65.
  • Lovato, C. (2013). On the ımpact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic expectations in the United States. Anno Accademico, 2012/13
  • Liu, Y., Zheng, Y. ve Drakeford, B. (2019). Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 3(3), 550-561.
  • Luk, P., Cheng, M. Ng, P. ve Wong, K. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in small open economies: The Case of Hong Kong. Pacific Economic Review, 25(1), 21-46.
  • Manteu, C. ve Serra, S. (2017). Impact of uncertainty measures on The Portuguese Economy. Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, 29-51.
  • Masayuki, M. (2017). Impact of policy uncertainty on consumption and saving behavior: Evidence from a survey on consumers. The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 17-E-075.
  • Netšunajev, A. ve Glass, K. (2016). Uncertainty and employment dynamics in The Euro Area and The US. Journal of Macroeconomics, 51, 48-62.
  • Okun M.A. (1971). The mirage of steady ınflation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 485-498.
  • Onafowora, O. ve Owoye, O. (2019). Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: A SVAR Analysis. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52, 157-179.
  • Rice, A., Vehbi, T. ve Wong, B. (2018). Measuring uncertainty and ıts ımpact on The New Zealand. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note Series, No: AN2018/01.
  • Romer, D.C. (1990). The great crash and the onset of the great depression. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105(3), 597-624.
  • Sevüktekin, M. ve Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi EViews Uygulamalı. Bursa: Dora Yayıncılık.
  • Stockhammar, P. ve Österholm, P. (2017). The ımpact of US uncertainty shocks on small open Economies. Open Economies Review, 28, 347-368.
  • Şahinöz S. ve Coşar E.E. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 25(21), 1517-1520.
  • Şit, M. (2022). Belirsizlik ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi: Yeni bir endeks ile panel veri analizi. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(3), 1200-1215.
  • Tümtürk, O. (2022). Global uncertainty and exchange rate volatility. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (37), 69-84.
  • Uche, E. ve Effiom, L. (2021). Fighting capital flight in Nigeria: have we considered global uncertainties and exchange rate volatilities?Fresh Insights Via Quantile ARDL Model. SN Business&Economics, 1(6), 1-22.
  • Usta, C. ve Şimşek, T. (2022). A panel cointegration test with a fourier function on economic policy uncertainty ındex and unemployment rates In G-7 Countries. Journal of International Management, Educational and Economics Perspectives, 10(2), 130-138.
  • Usta, C. ve Mete, E. (2022). Ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin makro ekonomik göstergeler üzerine etkisi: Avrupa birliği ülkeleri örneği. Karadeniz Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(27), 644-659.
  • Varlık, C. (2023). Macroeconomic effects of global uncertainty in The Turkish Economy. Press Academia Procedia, 17, 129-134.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2019). Küresel ekonomik, politik ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin makroekonomik etkileri: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine SVAR Analizi (1992:Q1-2018:Q2). Journal of Yasar University, 14(53), 56-73.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. ve Çelik, K. A. (2021). The ımpact of global uncertainties on economic growth: Evidence from the US economy (1996:Q1-2018:Q4). Romanya Ekonomik Tahmin Dergisi, 24(2), 35-54.
  • Wachtel, P. (1977). Inflation, Uncertainty and Saving Behavior. Explorations in Economic Research, 4(4), 559-578.

The Impact of Economic and Political Uncertainties on Macroeconomic Variables: The Example of Türkiye

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 40 Sayı: 4, 1067 - 1089, 01.10.2025
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1599503

Öz

This study aims to empirically examine the effects of uncertainties in general and economic and political (EP) uncertainties in particular on the basic macroeconomic variables of the Turkish economy, namely growth, inflation, and unemployment. For this purpose, the effects of foreign EP uncertainties on Türkiye's growth, inflation, and unemployment variables were examined econometrically for the period 1998:Q1-2023:Q4 with two different models defined as SVAR-1 and SVAR-2. As a result of the study, it was determined that EP uncertainties had negative effects on Türkiye's growth and unemployment variables, but did not have any positive or negative effects on inflation; in other words, EP reduced growth, increased unemployment, and had a statistically insignificant effect on inflation. These results show that EP uncertainties are an exogenous shock element for Türkiye's main macroeconomic variables and point out the need to give more importance to the effects of these shocks in monetary and fiscal policy designs.

Kaynakça

  • Adıgüzel, U. (2012). Para politikasının Türkiye Ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerinin VAR yöntemleri ile ölçülmesi. (Doktora Tezi, Erciyes Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü). Kayseri
  • Akdağ, S. (2020). Ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin güven endeksleri üzerindeki etkisi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 113, 139-152.
  • Alexopoulos, M. ve Cohen, J. (2015). The Power of print: uncertainty shocks, markets and the economy. International Review of Economics and Finance, 40, 8-28.
  • Arbatli C. E., Davis, J. S., Ito, A. ve Miake, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty Japan. National Bureau of Economic Research, WP No: 23411, 1-44.
  • Athari, A. S., Kırıkkaleli, D., Yousaf, I. ve Ali, S. (2021). Time and frequency co-movement between economic policy uncertainty and ınflation: Evidence from Japan. Journal of Public Affairs, 22, 1-10.
  • Baker, R.S., Bloom, N. ve Davis, J.S. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
  • Ball, L. (1992). Why does high ınflation raise ınflation uncertainty?. Monetary Economics Journal, 29(3), 371-388.
  • Belke A. ve Osowski T. (2018). International effects of Euro area versus U.S. policy uncertainty: A FAVAR Approach. Economic Inpuiry, 57(1), 453-481.
  • Bernanke, B. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty and cyclical ınvestment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 502, 85-106.
  • Bloom, N. (2009). The ımpact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685.
  • Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153-175.
  • Brainard, C.W. (1967) .Uncertainty and the effectiveness of policy. The American Economic Review. 57, 2.
  • Čižmešija, M., Lolić, I. ve Sorić, P. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty ındex and economic activity: What causes what. Croatian Operational Research Review, 8, 563-575.
  • Damane, M. (2018). The macroeconomic ımpact of shocks in the US federal funds rate on the Republic of South Africa: an SVAR Analysis. Modern Economy, 9(4), 796-829.
  • Davis, S.J. (2016). An ındex of global economic policy uncertainty. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w22740.
  • Dixit K.A. ve Pindyck S. R. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty [Elektronik sürüm]. Princeton University Press.
  • Enders, W., Chung, P., Shao, L. ve Yuan, J. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series (2nd Edition). Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, ABD.
  • Ferrara, L. ve Guérin, P. (2016) What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks. Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper, WP No: 2016-25, 1-40.
  • Fontaine, I., Didier, L. ve Razafindravaosolonirina, J. (2018). Foreign policy uncertainty shocks and US macroeconomic activity: Evidence from China. Economics letters, 155, 121-125.
  • Friedman M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472.
  • Fry, R. ve Pagan, A. (2011). Sign restrictions in structural vector autoregressions: A critical review. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(4), 938-960.
  • Güler, E. (2005). Müzayede Teorisi, Türkiye’de Uygulaması: Telekom Örneği. (Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Uludağ Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü). Bursa
  • Gordon, J.R. (1971). Steady anticipated ınflation: Mirage or oasis?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 499-510.
  • Hartman, R. (1972). The effects of price and cost uncertainty on ınvestment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5(2), 258-266.
  • Hayali, Sarıalioğlu, A. (2021). Doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve belirsizlik arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye belirsizlik endeksi örneği. Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(123), 29-41.
  • Junttila, J. ve Vataja, J. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity. Economic Systems, 42(4), 569-583.
  • Kang, W. ve Ratti A. R. (2013). Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty. Economic Modelling, 35, 314-319.
  • Klein B. (1975). Our new monetary standard: The measurement and effects of price uncertainty, 1880-1973. Economic Inpuiry, 13(4), 461-484.
  • Lawson, T. (1988). Probability and uncertainty in economic analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 11(1), 38-65.
  • Lovato, C. (2013). On the ımpact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic expectations in the United States. Anno Accademico, 2012/13
  • Liu, Y., Zheng, Y. ve Drakeford, B. (2019). Reconstruction and dynamic dependence analysis of global economic policy uncertainty. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 3(3), 550-561.
  • Luk, P., Cheng, M. Ng, P. ve Wong, K. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in small open economies: The Case of Hong Kong. Pacific Economic Review, 25(1), 21-46.
  • Manteu, C. ve Serra, S. (2017). Impact of uncertainty measures on The Portuguese Economy. Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, 29-51.
  • Masayuki, M. (2017). Impact of policy uncertainty on consumption and saving behavior: Evidence from a survey on consumers. The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 17-E-075.
  • Netšunajev, A. ve Glass, K. (2016). Uncertainty and employment dynamics in The Euro Area and The US. Journal of Macroeconomics, 51, 48-62.
  • Okun M.A. (1971). The mirage of steady ınflation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 485-498.
  • Onafowora, O. ve Owoye, O. (2019). Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: A SVAR Analysis. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52, 157-179.
  • Rice, A., Vehbi, T. ve Wong, B. (2018). Measuring uncertainty and ıts ımpact on The New Zealand. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note Series, No: AN2018/01.
  • Romer, D.C. (1990). The great crash and the onset of the great depression. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105(3), 597-624.
  • Sevüktekin, M. ve Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi EViews Uygulamalı. Bursa: Dora Yayıncılık.
  • Stockhammar, P. ve Österholm, P. (2017). The ımpact of US uncertainty shocks on small open Economies. Open Economies Review, 28, 347-368.
  • Şahinöz S. ve Coşar E.E. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 25(21), 1517-1520.
  • Şit, M. (2022). Belirsizlik ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi: Yeni bir endeks ile panel veri analizi. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(3), 1200-1215.
  • Tümtürk, O. (2022). Global uncertainty and exchange rate volatility. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (37), 69-84.
  • Uche, E. ve Effiom, L. (2021). Fighting capital flight in Nigeria: have we considered global uncertainties and exchange rate volatilities?Fresh Insights Via Quantile ARDL Model. SN Business&Economics, 1(6), 1-22.
  • Usta, C. ve Şimşek, T. (2022). A panel cointegration test with a fourier function on economic policy uncertainty ındex and unemployment rates In G-7 Countries. Journal of International Management, Educational and Economics Perspectives, 10(2), 130-138.
  • Usta, C. ve Mete, E. (2022). Ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin makro ekonomik göstergeler üzerine etkisi: Avrupa birliği ülkeleri örneği. Karadeniz Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(27), 644-659.
  • Varlık, C. (2023). Macroeconomic effects of global uncertainty in The Turkish Economy. Press Academia Procedia, 17, 129-134.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2019). Küresel ekonomik, politik ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin makroekonomik etkileri: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine SVAR Analizi (1992:Q1-2018:Q2). Journal of Yasar University, 14(53), 56-73.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. ve Çelik, K. A. (2021). The ımpact of global uncertainties on economic growth: Evidence from the US economy (1996:Q1-2018:Q4). Romanya Ekonomik Tahmin Dergisi, 24(2), 35-54.
  • Wachtel, P. (1977). Inflation, Uncertainty and Saving Behavior. Explorations in Economic Research, 4(4), 559-578.
Toplam 51 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Büyüme, Enflasyon, İstihdam
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yeşim Sarı 0009-0000-1318-1144

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 1 Ekim 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ekim 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 10 Aralık 2024
Kabul Tarihi 8 Nisan 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 40 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Sarı, Y. (2025). Ekonomik ve Politik Belirsizliklerin Makroekonomik Değişkenlere Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 40(4), 1067-1089. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1599503

İzmir İktisat Dergisi
TR-DİZİN, DOAJ, EBSCO, ERIH PLUS, Index Copernicus, Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory, EconLit, Harvard Hollis, Google Scholar, OAJI, SOBIAD, CiteFactor, OJOP, Araştırmax, WordCat, OpenAIRE, Base, IAD, Academindex
tarafından taranmaktadır.

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Yayınevi Web Sitesi
https://kutuphane.deu.edu.tr/yayinevi/

Dergi İletişim Bilgileri Sayfası
https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ije/contacts


İZMİR İKTİSAT DERGİSİ 2022 yılı 37. cilt 1. sayı ile birlikte sadece elektronik olarak yayınlanmaya başlamıştır.