SAVAŞ, DÜNYA EKONOMİSİ VE FİNANSAL PİYASALAR İÇİN DE FELAKET Mİ?

Öz

Savaş, insan grupları veya ülkeler arasında ortaya çıkan anlaşmazlıkların çözülmesi adına yapılan saldırganlık davranışıdır. Savaşın insanlığı sosyal, ekonomik ve psikolojik bir felakete sürüklediği tartışılmazdır. Bunun yanı sıra savaşın ekonomik bir maliyeti de söz konusudur. Bu maliyet, küreselleşen dünyada savaşın taraflarıyla birlikte taraf olmayanlara da yüklenmektedir. Çalışmada, Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yı işgal etmesiyle başlayan savaşa karşı, dünya ekonomisi ve finansal piyasaların verdiği tepkiler ele alınmıştır. Savaşın küresel ekonomi ve finansal piyasalara olumsuz etkileri birtakım veriler eşliğinde ortaya konulmuştur. Savaşın başlamasıyla birlikte öncelikli olarak, Rusya ve Ukrayna ile ekonomik bağlantıları daha fazla ve bu ülkelere enerji bağımlılığı olan Avrupa ülkelerinin ekonomi ve piyasalarını olumsuz etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Rusya-Ukrayna savaşının küresel ekonomi ve finansal piyasalar üzerinde olumsuz etkilerinin olacağı, ancak küresel ölçekte tek başına büyük bir etkiye sahip olmayacağı düşünülmektedir. Sonuç olarak, savaşın küresel ekonomi ve finansal piyasalara vereceği zararın ne olacağı konusunda iki faktör önemli olacaktır. Birincisi savaşın süresi ki savaş ne kadar kısa sürerse etkisi o kadar az hissedilecektir. İkinci faktör ise savaşın uzaması durumunda Rusya’ya uygulanacak yaptırımlar ve Rusya’nın bu yaptırımlara vereceği reflekslerdir. Bu iki faktör neticesinde savaşın ekonomi ve finansal piyasalar açısından küresel etkisinin ortaya çıkacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savaş,
• Küresel Ekonomi,
• Finansal Piyasalar

IS WAR A DISASTER FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS?

Öz

War is an aggressive behavior committed in the name of decisioning disputes that arise between groups of people or countries. It is indisputable that the war plunged humanity into a social, economic and psychological catastrophe. In addition, there is an economic cost of the war. This cost is borne by the parties to the war in the globalized world, as well as by those who are not parties to it. In the study, the reactions of the world economy and financial markets against the war that began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine are discussed. The negative effects of the war on the global economy and financial markets have been revealed by a number of data. As a result of the outbreak of the war, it was determined that the economies and markets of European countries with more economic links to Russia and Ukraine and energy dependence on these countries were negatively affected primarily by the outbreak of the war. It is believed that the Russia-Ukraine war will have negative effects on the global economy and financial markets, but will not have a major impact on a global scale alone. As a result, two factors will be important in terms of the damage that the war will cause to the global economy and financial markets. The first is the duration of the war, and the shorter the war, the less its effect will be felt. The second factor is the sanctions to be applied to Russia in case of prolongation of the war and Russia's reflexes to these sanctions. As a result of these two factors, it is thought that the global impact of the war in terms of economy and financial markets will emerge.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• War
• Global Economy
• Financial Markets

Kaynakça

1. BBC. (2022a). Stock markets rebound on Russia sanctions. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60518578 (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)
2. BBC. (2022b). Ukraine conflict: Russia doubles interest rate after rouble slump. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60550992 (Erişim Tarihi: 17.03.2022)
3. Bermant, B. (2003). LİDERLERİN SAVAŞI. PIVOLKA-ÖZEL, 22. https://elyadal.org/pivolka/ek/PiVOLKA_War.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 06.03.2022)
4. Bloomberg. (2022). Ukrayna krizinin ekonomik etkileri hakkında bilmeniz gerekenler. https://www.bloomberght.com/ukrayna-krizinin-ekonomik-etkileri-hakkinda-bilmeniz-gerekenler-2299463 (Erişim Tarihi: 07.03.2022)
5. Brune, A., Hens, T., Rieger, M. O., & Wang, M. (2015). The war puzzle: Contradictory effects of international conflicts on stock markets. International Review of Economics, 62(1), 1-21.
6. Businesstoday. (2022). How cryptocurrencies have fared amid Russia-Ukraine war. https://www.businesstoday.in/crypto/story/how-cryptocurrencies-have-fared-amid-russia-ukraine-war-324892-2022-03-06 (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)
7. Capital. 2022. What a Russia-Ukraine conflict could mean for the forex market. https://capital.com/what-a-russia-ukraine-conflict-could-mean-for-the-forex-market (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)
8. CBSNEWS. (2022). Stocks swing and oil prices soar after Russia attacks Ukraine. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-stocks-plunge-2022-02-24/ (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)

9. CNBC, (2022a). The Russia-Ukraine war has hit many currencies hard. Here's what analysts are expecting now. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/russia-ukraine-war-has-hit-currencies-hard-heres-what-analysts-expect-next.html (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)
10. CNBC. (2022b). The Russia-Ukraine conflict has thrust crypto into the spotlight and raised 3 big questions. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/russia-ukraine-war-cryptocurrencies-and-sanctions-in-the-spotlight-.html (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)
11. Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197-232.
12. Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kumar, S. (2018). How do firms form their expectations? new survey evidence. American Economic Review, 108(9), 2671-2713. D'Acunto, F & M Weber (2022), "Rising Inflation is worrisome. But not for the reasons you think", VoxEU.org, 4. January.
13. Demarais, A. (2022). Global economic implications of the Russia-Ukraine war. https://www.eiu.com/n/global-economic-implications-of-the-russia-ukraine-war/ (Erişim Tarihi: 16.03.2022)
14. Economist. (2022). The rouble's collapse compounds Russia's isolation. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/02/28/the-roubles-collapse-compounds-russias-isolation (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)
15. Euromoney. (2022). Ukraine Crisis Hits Global FX Butreaction Not Always As Expected. https://www.euromoney.com/article/29sbllc0x3vsnwts64vsw/foreign-exchange/ukraine-crisis-hits-global-fx-but-reaction-not-always-as-expected (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)
16. JPMORGAN. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Crisis: What Does It Mean For Markets? https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/russia-ukraine-crisis-market-impact (Erişim Tarihi: 18.03.2022)
17. Kammer, A., Azour, J., Selassie, A.A., Goldfajn, I., and Rhee, C. (2022). How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions. https://blogs.imf.org/2022/03/15/how-war-in-ukraine-is-reverberating-across-worlds-regions/ (Erişim Tarihi: 17.03.2022)
18. Pettinger, T. (2022). Economic impact of war. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2180/economics/economic-impact-of-war/ (Erişim Tarihi: 14.03.2022)
19. Reuters. (2022). Europe at war: Six charts to know in financial markets. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europe-war-six-charts-know-financial-markets-2022-02-26/ (Erişim Tarihi: 08.03.2022)
20. Von Clausewitz, C. (2011). Savaş üzerine. (Çev. S. Koçak). İstanbul: Doruk.