TERÖRİZM VE MAKROEKONOMİ: AVRASYA ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Öz

Çalışmada 1994-2015 dönemi için Avrasya ülkeleri olan Ukrayna, Moldova, Gürcistan, Kırgızistan, Kazakistan, Tacikistan, Azerbaycan, Ermenistan ve Beyaz Rusya için terörist olaylar ile enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı, kişi başı GSYİH, ihracat oranı ve ithalat oranı arasındaki ilişki ortaya konulmak istenmiştir. Bu amaçla Westerlund eşbütünleşme analizi ve Holtz-Eakin, Newey ve Rosen'in nedensellik testini kullanmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, ihracat oranı ile terör olayları arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğu ve ihracat oranının terör olaylarının nedeni olduğu gözlenmiştir. Aynı zamanda, çalışmada ele alınan diğer değişkenler ile terörist olaylar arasında uzun vadeli bir etkileşim ve nedensel bağlantı bulunmadığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• terrörizm,panel veri analizi,holtz-eakin nedensellik testi,westerlund eşbütünleşme testi

TERRORISM AND MACROECONOMY: A REVIEW OF THE EURASIAN COUNTRIES

Öz

The relationship between terrorist incidents, inflation rate, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, export rate and import rate for Eurasian countries Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus for the period 1994-2015. For this purpose, the Westerlund cointegration analysis and have been using the causality test introduced by Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen. As a result of the analyzes, it is observed that there is a long-term relationship between the export rate and the terrorist incidents and the export rate is the reason for the terrorist incidents. At the same time, it has been found that there is no long-term interaction and causal link between all other variables and terrorist incidents considered in the study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Terrorism,Westerlund cointegration test,Holtz-Eakin,Newey and Rosen Causality Test,Macroeconomics variables

Kaynakça

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