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TERÖRİZM VE MAKROEKONOMİ: AVRASYA ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 75 - 85, 15.07.2018

Öz

Çalışmada 1994-2015 dönemi için Avrasya ülkeleri
olan Ukrayna, Moldova, Gürcistan, Kırgızistan, Kazakistan, Tacikistan,
Azerbaycan, Ermenistan ve Beyaz Rusya için terörist olaylar ile enflasyon
oranı, işsizlik oranı, kişi başı GSYİH, ihracat oranı ve ithalat oranı
arasındaki ilişki ortaya konulmak istenmiştir. Bu amaçla Westerlund
eşbütünleşme analizi ve Holtz-Eakin, Newey ve Rosen'in nedensellik testini
kullanmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, ihracat oranı ile terör olayları
arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğu ve ihracat oranının terör olaylarının
nedeni olduğu gözlenmiştir. Aynı zamanda, çalışmada ele alınan diğer
değişkenler ile terörist olaylar arasında uzun vadeli bir etkileşim ve nedensel
bağlantı bulunmadığı tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Ak, Mehmet Zeki; Mustafa Dindar ve Nurullah Altıntaş, “Türkiye’de Terörizm İle İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisinin Nedensellik Analizi”, Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2017, No:34, s.20-31.Akıncı, Merter; Gönül Y. Akıncı ve Ömer Yılmaz, “Terörizmin Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Panel İki Aşamalı En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi”, Uluslararası Güvenlik ve Terörizm Dergisi, 2014, No:5(1), s.1-24.Akıncı, Merter; Gönül Y. Akıncı ve Ömer Yılmaz, ”Terörizmin Doğrudan ve Dolaylı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Dış Yardımlar Ne Kadar Telafi Edici?”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF dergisi, 2015, No:70(1), s.1-33.Algan, Neşe; Balcılar, Mehmet; Bal, Harun.; Manga, Müge (2017), “Terörizmin Türkiye Finansal Piyasaları Üzerine Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Ege Akademik Bakış, Cilt:17, Sayı:1, ss. 147-160.Altay, Hüseyin; Aykut Ekinci and M. Akif Peçe, “Ortadoğu’da Terörün Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır ve Suudi Arabistan Üzerine Bir İnceleme ”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2013, No:37, s. 267-288.Baltagi, Badi H. . Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley Sons., 2005.Bravo, Ana Bela S. and Carlos Manuel M.Dias, “An Empirical Analysis of Terrorism: Deprivation, Islamism veGeopoliticial Factors”, Defence vePeace Economics, 2006, No:17(4), s.329-341.Bloomberg, S.B. Hess, G.D and Orphanides, A., “The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, No: 251, s.1007-1032.Breusch, T. S. and A.R. Pagan (1980). "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), s.239-253.Caruso, Raul and Friedrich Schneider, “The Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism and Political Violance in Western Europe”, European Journal of Political Economy, 2011, 27 (1), s. 27-49Choi,Seung-Whan, “Economic Growth and Terrorism: Domestic, International and Suicide”, Oxford Economic papers, 2015, s.157-181.Eckstein, Zvi and Daniel Tsiddon, “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terror: Theory and The Case of Israel”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, No: 51, s.971-1002.Estrada, Mario A. Ruiz; Donghyun Park, Jung Suk Kim and Alam Khan, “The Economic Impact of Terrorism: A New Model And Its Application to Pakistan”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2015, No: 37(6), s.1065-1085.Freytag, Andreas; Jens Krüger; Daniel Meierrieks, and Daniel, Schneider, Friedrich, “The Origins of Terrorism: Cross-Country Estimates of Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism”, European Journal of Political Economy, 2011, No:27, s.5-16.Gries, Thomas; Tim Krieger and Daniele Meierrieks, “Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth”, Center for International Economics Working Paper Series, 2009, No:2009-02, s.1-22.Hausman, J. A. (1978), “Specification Test in Econometrics”, Econometrica, 46(6), s.1251-1271.Holtz-Eakin, D., Whitney N. and Harvey, R. S., 1988. “Estimating Vector Autoregressions With Panel Data”. Econometrica, 56, p. 1371-1395.Ismail, Aisha and Shehla Amjad, “Determinants of Terrorism in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation”, Economic Modelling, 2014, No: 37, s.320-331.Kis-Katos, Krisztina; Helge Liebert and Günther Schulze, “On The Origin of Domestic veInternational Terrorism”, European Journal of Political Economy, 2011, No: 27, s.516-536.Korkmaz, Özge; Deniz Erer; Elif Erer, “Terör Olaylarının Finansal Piyasalar Üzerine Etkisi”, Sosyoekonomi, 2017, 25(31), s.11-30.Kurt, Serdar and Erdal T. Karagöl, “The Effects of Terrorism and Defence Expenditures On Economic Growth”, 2015, No: 6(2), s.07-17, www.ijeronline.com/Vol6issue2.php Erişim: 01/12/2015.Malik, Zahra and Khalid Zaman, “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism in Pakistan”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2013, No:35, s.1103-1123.Meierrieks, Daniel and Thomas Gries, “Economic Performance and Terrorist Activity in Latin America”, 2012, Defence and Peace Economics, 2012, No:23(5),s.447-470.Meierrieks, Daniel and Thomas Gries, “Causality Between Terrorism and Economic Growth”, Journal of Peace Research, 2013, Journal of Peace Research, No:50(1), s.91-104.Llussa, Fermanda and Jose Tavares, “Which Terror at Which Cost? On Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks?”, Economic Letters, 2011, No:110, s.52-55.Persitz, Dotan, “The Economic Effects of Terrorism: Counterfactual Analysis of The Case of Israel”, www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2007/0106_1015_1802.pdf, 2007, s.1-55, Erişim: 15/12/2015.Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. P. 1999. “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel”, Jornal of the American Statistical Assosiciation, 94, p.621-634.Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. 2008. “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, Econometrics Journal, 11 (1), p.105-127.Procasky, W.J. and N.U. Ujah, “Terrorism and Its Impact on the Cost of Debt”, Journal of Intrenational Money and Finance, 60, p.250-266.Shahbaz, Muhammad and Shahbaz Muhammad Shabbir, “Is Hike in Inflation Responsible for Rise in Terrorism in Pakistan?”, MPRA Working Paper, 2011, No:31236.Shahbaz, Muhammad,”Linkages Betwwen Inflation, Economic Growth And Terrorism in Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 2013, No: 32, s.496-506Testas, Abdelaziz, “Determinants of Terrorism in the Muslim World: An Empirical Cros-Sectional Analysis”, Terorism and Political Violance, No:16(2), 2004, s.253-273Tatoğlu, Ferda Y. 2012. İleri Panel Veri Analizi. Beta Basım, İstanbul.Westerlund, J. 2007. “Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69 (6), p.709-747.

TERRORISM AND MACROECONOMY: A REVIEW OF THE EURASIAN COUNTRIES

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 75 - 85, 15.07.2018

Öz

The relationship between terrorist incidents, inflation rate, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, export rate and import rate for Eurasian countries Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus for the period 1994-2015. For this purpose, the Westerlund cointegration analysis and have been using the causality test introduced by Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen. As a result of the analyzes, it is observed that there is a long-term relationship between the export rate and the terrorist incidents and the export rate is the reason for the terrorist incidents. At the same time, it has been found that there is no long-term interaction and causal link between all other variables and terrorist incidents considered in the study.

Kaynakça

  • Ak, Mehmet Zeki; Mustafa Dindar ve Nurullah Altıntaş, “Türkiye’de Terörizm İle İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisinin Nedensellik Analizi”, Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2017, No:34, s.20-31.Akıncı, Merter; Gönül Y. Akıncı ve Ömer Yılmaz, “Terörizmin Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Panel İki Aşamalı En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi”, Uluslararası Güvenlik ve Terörizm Dergisi, 2014, No:5(1), s.1-24.Akıncı, Merter; Gönül Y. Akıncı ve Ömer Yılmaz, ”Terörizmin Doğrudan ve Dolaylı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Dış Yardımlar Ne Kadar Telafi Edici?”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF dergisi, 2015, No:70(1), s.1-33.Algan, Neşe; Balcılar, Mehmet; Bal, Harun.; Manga, Müge (2017), “Terörizmin Türkiye Finansal Piyasaları Üzerine Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Ege Akademik Bakış, Cilt:17, Sayı:1, ss. 147-160.Altay, Hüseyin; Aykut Ekinci and M. Akif Peçe, “Ortadoğu’da Terörün Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Mısır ve Suudi Arabistan Üzerine Bir İnceleme ”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2013, No:37, s. 267-288.Baltagi, Badi H. . Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley Sons., 2005.Bravo, Ana Bela S. and Carlos Manuel M.Dias, “An Empirical Analysis of Terrorism: Deprivation, Islamism veGeopoliticial Factors”, Defence vePeace Economics, 2006, No:17(4), s.329-341.Bloomberg, S.B. Hess, G.D and Orphanides, A., “The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, No: 251, s.1007-1032.Breusch, T. S. and A.R. Pagan (1980). "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), s.239-253.Caruso, Raul and Friedrich Schneider, “The Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism and Political Violance in Western Europe”, European Journal of Political Economy, 2011, 27 (1), s. 27-49Choi,Seung-Whan, “Economic Growth and Terrorism: Domestic, International and Suicide”, Oxford Economic papers, 2015, s.157-181.Eckstein, Zvi and Daniel Tsiddon, “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terror: Theory and The Case of Israel”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, No: 51, s.971-1002.Estrada, Mario A. Ruiz; Donghyun Park, Jung Suk Kim and Alam Khan, “The Economic Impact of Terrorism: A New Model And Its Application to Pakistan”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2015, No: 37(6), s.1065-1085.Freytag, Andreas; Jens Krüger; Daniel Meierrieks, and Daniel, Schneider, Friedrich, “The Origins of Terrorism: Cross-Country Estimates of Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism”, European Journal of Political Economy, 2011, No:27, s.5-16.Gries, Thomas; Tim Krieger and Daniele Meierrieks, “Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth”, Center for International Economics Working Paper Series, 2009, No:2009-02, s.1-22.Hausman, J. A. (1978), “Specification Test in Econometrics”, Econometrica, 46(6), s.1251-1271.Holtz-Eakin, D., Whitney N. and Harvey, R. S., 1988. “Estimating Vector Autoregressions With Panel Data”. Econometrica, 56, p. 1371-1395.Ismail, Aisha and Shehla Amjad, “Determinants of Terrorism in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation”, Economic Modelling, 2014, No: 37, s.320-331.Kis-Katos, Krisztina; Helge Liebert and Günther Schulze, “On The Origin of Domestic veInternational Terrorism”, European Journal of Political Economy, 2011, No: 27, s.516-536.Korkmaz, Özge; Deniz Erer; Elif Erer, “Terör Olaylarının Finansal Piyasalar Üzerine Etkisi”, Sosyoekonomi, 2017, 25(31), s.11-30.Kurt, Serdar and Erdal T. Karagöl, “The Effects of Terrorism and Defence Expenditures On Economic Growth”, 2015, No: 6(2), s.07-17, www.ijeronline.com/Vol6issue2.php Erişim: 01/12/2015.Malik, Zahra and Khalid Zaman, “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism in Pakistan”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2013, No:35, s.1103-1123.Meierrieks, Daniel and Thomas Gries, “Economic Performance and Terrorist Activity in Latin America”, 2012, Defence and Peace Economics, 2012, No:23(5),s.447-470.Meierrieks, Daniel and Thomas Gries, “Causality Between Terrorism and Economic Growth”, Journal of Peace Research, 2013, Journal of Peace Research, No:50(1), s.91-104.Llussa, Fermanda and Jose Tavares, “Which Terror at Which Cost? On Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks?”, Economic Letters, 2011, No:110, s.52-55.Persitz, Dotan, “The Economic Effects of Terrorism: Counterfactual Analysis of The Case of Israel”, www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2007/0106_1015_1802.pdf, 2007, s.1-55, Erişim: 15/12/2015.Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. P. 1999. “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel”, Jornal of the American Statistical Assosiciation, 94, p.621-634.Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. 2008. “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, Econometrics Journal, 11 (1), p.105-127.Procasky, W.J. and N.U. Ujah, “Terrorism and Its Impact on the Cost of Debt”, Journal of Intrenational Money and Finance, 60, p.250-266.Shahbaz, Muhammad and Shahbaz Muhammad Shabbir, “Is Hike in Inflation Responsible for Rise in Terrorism in Pakistan?”, MPRA Working Paper, 2011, No:31236.Shahbaz, Muhammad,”Linkages Betwwen Inflation, Economic Growth And Terrorism in Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 2013, No: 32, s.496-506Testas, Abdelaziz, “Determinants of Terrorism in the Muslim World: An Empirical Cros-Sectional Analysis”, Terorism and Political Violance, No:16(2), 2004, s.253-273Tatoğlu, Ferda Y. 2012. İleri Panel Veri Analizi. Beta Basım, İstanbul.Westerlund, J. 2007. “Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69 (6), p.709-747.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Özge Korkmaz 0000-0001-9275-1271

Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Temmuz 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Korkmaz, Ö. (2018). TERÖRİZM VE MAKROEKONOMİ: AVRASYA ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME. Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi, 1(2), 75-85.

International Journal of Economics, Politics, Humanities & Social Sciences – IJEPHSS Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.