THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AND CHILD HEALTH: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Öz

The aim of this study is to reveal the relationship between macroeconomic factors and child health and also whether the changes in macroeconomic factors affect child health in Turkey. In this study, real GDP, unemployment, inflation, under-one-mortality and under-five mortality rates between 1974 and 2015 in Turkey were examined using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) bounds testing approach. As a result of the study, it is concluded that economic growth in terms of real GDP has an adverse effect on child health. Also, it is concluded that economic crises have positive effects on children's health as well as negative effects. This study investigated the relationship between macro economy and child health. The results of the study provide evidence that economic growth may adversely affect child health. This study also provides some clues for policymakers to protect child health from negative effects of economic crises. It is suggested that maternity leaves and financial benefits should be increased to protect child health from the negative effects of economic fluctuation. It is also important to increase the food support to poor families in times of economic crisis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Macroeconomic factors,child health,economic crisis,ARDL bounds testing

Kaynakça

1. Borowy, I. (2011). Similar but different: Health and economic crisis in 1990s Cuba and Russia. Social Science & Medicine, 72, 1489-1498. DOI 10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.03.008.
2. Bulutay, T. (1995). Employment, unemployment and wages in Turkey. Ankara: ILO, State Institute of Statistics.
3. Cader, A.A. and Perera, L. (2011). Understanding the impact of the economic crisis on child and maternal health among the poor: Opportunities for South Asia. ADBI Working Paper 293. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.
4. Christian, P. (2009). Impact of the economic crisis and increase in food prices on child mortality: Exploring nutritional pathways. The Journal of Nutrition, 140, 177-181. DOI 10.3945/jn.109.111708.
5. Ciftci, F. and Yildiz, R. (2015). The economic determinants of foreign direct investment: a time series analysis of the Turkish economy. Business and Economics Research Journal, 6(4), 71-95.
6. Cutler, D.M., Knaul, F., Lozano, R., Méndez, O. and Zurita, B. (2002). Financial crisis, health outcomes and aging: Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s. Journal of Public Economics, 84, 279-303. DOI 10.1016/S0047-2727(01)00127-X
7. Fernandez, A. and Lopez-Calva, L.F. (2009). The impact of the crisis on vulnerable populations: What do we know? Poverty, Human Development and MDGs Cluster, Regional Bureau for Latin America and The Caribbean, United Nations Development Programme, Crisis Update No. 5.
8. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. and Ruhm, C.J. (2006). Deaths rises in good economic times: Evidence from the OECD. Economics and Human Biology, 4, 298–316. DOI 10.1016/j.ehb.2006.04.001

9. Granados, J.A.T. (2005). Recessions and mortality in Spain, 1980–1997. European Journal of Population, 21, 393–422. DOI 10.1007/s10680-005-4767-9.
10. Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies. (1994). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 1993. Ankara: Hacettepe Printing Office.
11. Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies. (1999). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 1998. Ankara: Hacettepe Printing Office.
12. Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies. (2003). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2003. Ankara: Hacettepe Printing Office.
13. Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies. (2009). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2008. Ankara: Hacettepe Printing Office.
14. HPC (Healthy Public Policy). (2011). Social environments and health. Concept paper. Edmonton: Alberta Health Services. Lopes, R.P. (1934). The economic depression and public health. International Labour Review, 29, 784-811.
15. Mattei, G., Ferrari, S., Pingani, L. and Rigatelli, M. (2014). Short-term effects of the 2008 great recession on the health of the Italian population: An ecological study. Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology, 49, 851–858. DOI 10.1007/s00127-014-0818-z.
16. McClure, C.B., Valdimarsdóttir, U.A., Hauksdóttir, A. and Kawachi, I. (2012). Economic crisis and smoking behaviour: Prospective cohort study in Iceland. BMJ Open, 2:e001386. DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001386.
17. Menabde, N. (2009). Health policy in times of crisis: Challenge and opportunity. HPM Spotlight. Retrived 21 February 2014, http://www.hpm.org/Downloads/HPM_SPOTLIGHTS/HPM_Spotlight_hp_in_times_of_crisis_Dec_09.pdf
18. Neumayer, E. (2004). Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: Evidence from Germany. Social Science & Medicine, 58, 1037-1047. DOI 10.1016/s0277-9536(03)00276-4.
19. Paxson, C. and Schady, N. (2004). Child health and the 1988-1992 economic crisis in Peru. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3260.
20. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. DOI 10.1002/jae.616.
21. Riva, M., Bambra, C., Easton, S. and Curtis, S. (2011). Hard times or good times? Inequalities in the health effects of economic change. International Journal of Public Health, 56, 3–5. DOI 10.1007/s00038-010-0220-x.
22. Ruhm, C.J. (2003). Good times make you sick. Journal of Health Economics, 22, 637–658. DOI 10.1016/S0167-6296(03)00041-9.
23. Schady, N. and Smitz, M. (2010). Aggregate economic shocks and infant mortality: New evidence for middle-income countries. Economic Letters, 108, 145-148. DOI 10.1016/j.econlet.2010.03.017.
24. Stuckler, D., Basu, S., Suhrcke, M., Coutts, A. and McKee, M. (2011). Effects of the 2008 recession on health: A first look at European data. Lancet, 378, 124–125. DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61079-9.
25. Tangcharoensathien, V., Harnvoravongchai, P., Pitayarangsarit, S. and Kasemsup, V. (2000). Health impacts of rapid economic changes in Thailand. Social Science & Medicine, 51(6), 789-907. DOI 10.1016/s0277-9536(00)00061-7.
26. Thomas, S., Keegan, C., Barry, S., Layte, R., Jowett, M. and Normand, C. (2013). A framework for assessing health system resilience in an economic crisis: Ireland as a test case. BMC Health Services Research, 13:450. DOI 10.1186/1472-6963-13-450.
27. TurkStat. (2016). Labor statistics. Retrived 12 May 2016, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007
28. UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Found). (1991). The impact of economic crisis and adjustment on health care in Mexico. Unicef İnternational Child Development Centre, Innocenti Ocasional Papers, No: 13.
29. World Bank. (2016). Country: turkey. Retrived 12 May 2016, http://data.worldbank.org/country/turkey?view=chart