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Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 5 - 13, 11.12.2017

Öz

The European Union (EU) aims
to reduce overall CO2 emissions at least 80% by 2050. For road
transport, this involves at least a 95% reduction target for 2050, compared to
1990 levels. Most commentators argue that achieving this target requires a
transition from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to battery electric
vehicles (BEVs). Nevertheless, this entails substantial changes in the
automotive value chain, which will not be motivated by single factors. To
support the automotive sector responding the aforementioned target, the factors
limiting the new technology in the sector was analyzed and challenged by
applying the socio-technical transition theory to the automotive system and
examining the existing requirements of critical actors. It was found that a
technical change might be possible with an industrial structure favoring the
production and consumption of BEVs. However, to achieve that, BEV technologies
that are developed in niches by established companies and new entrants need to
be further developed and prescriptive policy instruments need to be implemented
in a timely manner. Some helpful strategies were also identified and discussed
for satisfying the needs of governments, carmakers and small and medium sized
enterprises. 

Kaynakça

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Yıl 2017, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2, 5 - 13, 11.12.2017

Öz

Kaynakça

  • [1] Chapman, L., Transport and climate change: a review. Journal of Transport Geography, 2007. 15(5): p. 354-367.
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  • [8] Commission, E. White Paper on Transport: Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area—Towards a Competitive and Resource-Efficient Transport System. 2011 [cited 2014 10 August]; Available from:http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/strategies/doc/2011_white_paper/white-paper-illustrated-brochure_en.pdf.
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  • [10] Järvinen, J., F. Orton, and T. Nelson, Electric Vehicles in the NEM: Energy Market and Policy Implications. AGL Applied Economic and Policy Research, 2011. 27.
  • [11] Brown, S., D. Pyke, and P. Steenhof, Electric vehicles: The role and importance of standards in an emerging market. Energy Policy, 2010. 38(7): p. 3797-3806.
  • [12] Wyman, O. What is Your Strategy for the Electric Vehicle Market. 2009 [cited 2012 20 February ]; Available from: http://www.mow.com/media/OW_UTL_EN_2009_Electric_Vehicle_Market.pdf.
  • [13] Orbach, Y. and G.E. Fruchter, Forecasting sales and product evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2011. 78(7): p. 1210-1226.
  • [14] Fontaine, P.J., Shortening the Path to Energy Independence: A Policy Agenda to Commercialize Battery–Electric Vehicles. The Electricity Journal, 2008. 21(6): p. 22-42.
  • [15] Offer, G.J., et al., Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system. Energy Policy, 2010. 38(1): p. 24-29.
  • [16] Eaves, S. and J. Eaves, A cost comparison of fuel-cell and battery electric vehicles. Journal of Power Sources, 2004. 130(1–2): p. 208-212.
  • [17] Rip, A. and R. Kemp, Technological change, in Human Choice and Climate Change, S. Rayner, Malone, E.L, Editor. 1998, Battelle Press: Columbus, Ohio. p. 327–399.
  • [18] Geels, F.W., Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research policy, 2002. 31(8-9): p. 1257-1274.
  • [19] Geels, F.W., The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: a multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860–1930). Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2005. 17(4): p. 445-476.
  • [20] Geels, F.W., Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective. Technological forecasting and social change, 2005. 72(6): p. 681-696.
  • [21] Geels, F.W., Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective. Research policy, 2010. 39(4): p. 495-510.
  • [22] Geels, F.W., A socio-technical analysis of low-carbon transitions: introducing the multi-level perspective into transport studies. Journal of Transport Geography, 2012. 24: p. 471-482.
  • [23] Geels, F.W. and J. Schot, Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Research policy, 2007. 36(3): p. 399-417.
  • [24] Kemp, R., et al., eds. Automobility in transition. A Socio-technical Analysis of Sustainable Transport. 2012, Routledge: New York.
  • [25] Smith, A., A. Stirling, and F. Berkhout, The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions. Research policy, 2005. 34(10): p. 1491-1510.
  • [26] Rotmans, J., R. Kemp, and M. Van Asselt, More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy. foresight, 2001. 3(1): p. 15-31.
  • [27] Bakker, S., K. Maat, and B. van Wee, Stakeholders interests, expectations, and strategies regarding the development and implementation of electric vehicles: The case of the Netherlands. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2014. 66(0): p. 52-64.
  • [28] Van Bree, B., G.P. Verbong, and G.J. Kramer, A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles. Technological forecasting and social change, 2010. 77(4): p. 529-540.
  • [29] DOE. United States Department of Energy (DOE): Where the Energy Goes: Gasoline Vehicles. 2012 [cited 22015 30 May]; Available from: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml.
  • [30] McKinsey&Company. Boost! Transforming the powertrain value chain : a portfolio challenge; . 2011 [cited 2015 23 June]; Available from: http://actions-incitatives.ifsttar.fr/fileadmin/uploads/recherches/geri/PFI_VE/pdf/McKinsey_boost.pdf.
  • [31] Howey, D., R. North, and R. Martinez-Botas. Grantham Institute for Climate Change Briefing Paper No 2: Road transport technology and climate change mitigation. 2010 [cited 27 June 2015]; Available from: http://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Road-transport-technology-and-climate-mitigation---Grantham-BP-2.pdf.
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  • [33] Hardman, S., R. Steinberger-Wilckens, and D. van der Horst, Disruptive innovations: The case for hydrogen fuel cells and battery electric vehicles. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2013. 38(35): p. 15438-15451.
  • [34] Bakker, S., H. van Lente, and R. Engels, Competition in a technological niche: the cars of the future. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2012. 24(5): p. 421-434.
  • [35] Pilkington, A., R. Dyerson, and O. Tissier, The electric vehicle:: Patent data as indicators of technological development. World Patent Information, 2002. 24(1): p. 5-12.
  • [36] Pilkington, A. and R. Dyerson, Incumbency and the disruptive regulator: the case of electric vehicles in California. International Journal of Innovation Management, 2004. 8(04): p. 339-354.
  • [37] Sierzchula, W., et al., The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption. Energy Policy, 2014. 68: p. 183-194.
  • [38] Orsato, R.J. and P. Wells, U-turn: the rise and demise of the automobile industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2007. 15(11): p. 994-1006.
  • [39] Köhler, J., et al., A transitions model for sustainable mobility. Ecological economics, 2009. 68(12): p. 2985-2995.
  • [40] Whitmarsh, L., How useful is the Multi-Level Perspective for transport and sustainability research? Journal of Transport Geography, 2012. 24: p. 483-487.
  • [41] Mazur, C., et al., Assessing and comparing German and UK transition policies for electric mobility. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2015. 14: p. 84–100.
  • [42] Turnheim, B. and F.W. Geels, Regime destabilisation as the flipside of energy transitions: Lessons from the history of the British coal industry (1913–1997). Energy Policy, 2012. 50: p. 35-49.
  • [43] Dijk, M., R.J. Orsato, and R. Kemp, The emergence of an electric mobility trajectory. Energy Policy, 2013. 52: p. 135-145.
  • [44] Oltra, V. and M. Saint Jean, Variety of technological trajectories in low emission vehicles (LEVs): a patent data analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2009. 17(2): p. 201-213.
  • [45] Kemp, R. and D. Loorbach. Governance for sustainability through transition management. in Open Meeting of Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, Montreal, Canada. 2003. Citeseer.
  • [46] Schot, J. and F.W. Geels, Niches in evolutionary theories of technical change. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2007. 17(5): p. 605-622.
  • [47] Schot, J.W., Constructive technology assessment and technology dynamics: the case of clean technologies. Science, Technology and Human Values, 1992. 17(1): p. 36-56.
  • [48] Mokyr, J., The lever of riches: Technological creativity and economic progress. 1990, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • [49] Schot, J. and F.W. Geels, Strategic niche management and sustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2008. 20(5): p. 537-554.
  • [50] Schot, J., R. Hoogma, and B. Elzen, Strategies for shifting technological systems: the case of the automobile system. Futures, 1994. 26(10): p. 1060-1076.
  • [51] Kemp, R., J. Schot, and R. Hoogma, Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: the approach of strategic niche management. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 1998. 10(2): p. 175-196.
  • [52] Sushandoyo, D. and T. Magnusson, Strategic niche management from a business perspective: taking cleaner vehicle technologies from prototype to series production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2014. 74(0): p. 17-26.
  • [53] Utterback, J.M. and F.F. Suarez, Innovation, competition, and industry structure. Research policy, 1993. 22(1): p. 1-21.
  • [54] Christensen, C., The innovator's dilemma: when new technologies cause great firms to fail. 1997, Boston, Massachusetts: Harvard Business School Press.
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  • [57] Jovanovic, B. and G. MacDonald, The life-cycle of a competitive industry, 1994, National Bureau of Economic Research.
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  • [59] Christensen, C.M., The ongoing process of building a theory of disruption. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 2006. 23(1): p. 39-55.
  • [60] Jovanovic, B. and G.M. MacDonald, The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry. The Journal of Political Economy, 1994. 102(2): p. 322-347.
  • [61] Henderson, R.M. and K.B. Clark, Architectural innovation: the reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms. Administrative science quarterly, 1990. 35(1): p. 9-30.
  • [62] Magnusson, T. and C. Berggren, Entering an era of ferment–radical vs incrementalist strategies in automotive power train development. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2011. 23(3): p. 313-330.
  • [63] Dyerson, R. and A. Pilkington, Gales of creative destruction and the opportunistic incumbent: The case of electric vehicles in California. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2005. 17(4): p. 391-408.
  • [64] Frenken, K., M. Hekkert, and P. Godfroij, R&D portfolios in environmentally friendly automotive propulsion: variety, competition and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2004. 71(5): p. 485-507.
  • [65] Sierzchula, W., et al., The competitive environment of electric vehicles: An analysis of prototype and production models. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2012. 2: p. 49-65.
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  • [69] ARF, Amsterdam Roundtables Foundation (ARF) in colloboration with McKinsey and Company: Electric Vehicles in Europe - Gearing up for a New Phase?, 2014: Amsterdam.
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  • [73] Figenbaum, E. and M. Kolbenstvedt. Competitive Electric Town Transport: Main results from COMPETT – an Electromobility project. 2015 [cited 2016 01 August 2016]; Available from: https://www.toi.no/getfile.php?mmfileid=41196.
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  • [75] EGVI. European Green Cars Initiative (EGVI): European Roadmap Electrification of Road Transport 2nd Edition. 2012 [cited 2015 20 May]; Available from: http://www.egvi.eu/uploads/Modules/Publications/electrification_roadmap_web.pdf.
  • [76] Özel, F.M., et al., Development of a battery electric vehicle sector in North-West Europe: challenges and strategies. International Journal of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles, 2013. 5(1): p. 1-14.
  • [77] EVSP. Standardization roadmap for Electric Vehicles: Version 1.0. 2012 [cited 2014 02 June]; Available from: http://publicaa.ansi.org/sites/apdl/evsp/ANSI_EVSP_Roadmap_April_2012.pdf.
  • [78] EVsales. Worldwide EV sales. 2016 [cited 2016 06 July]; Available from: http://ev-sales.blogspot.de/search/label/World.
  • [79] Lu, L., et al., A review on the key issues for lithium-ion battery management in electric vehicles. Journal of Power Sources, 2012. 226: p. 272-288.
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  • [81] Tesla. Gigafactory. 2015 [cited 2015 08 July]; Available from: http://www.teslamotors.com/gigafactory.
  • [82] EVsales. Batteries. 2016 [cited 2016 06 July]; Available from: http://ev-sales.blogspot.de/search/label/Batteries.
  • [83] Beltramello, A., Market Development for Green Cars, 2012, OECD Publishing.
  • [84] Özel, F.M., et al., How to Strategically Position European SMEs as part of an Electric Vehicle Technology Value Chain. International Journal of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles, 2014. 6(3): p. 227-254.
  • [85] Dodourava, M. and K. Bevis. Comprehensive Analysis of the role of SMEs in the Changing European Car Industry. 2012 [cited 2016 07 July]; Available from: http://www.prosesc.org/fileadmin/Download/Reports_and_papers/Report_-_The_Role_of_SMEs_in_the_Changing_EU_Car_Industry.pdf.
Toplam 85 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Fatih M. Özel

Yayımlanma Tarihi 11 Aralık 2017
Gönderilme Tarihi 6 Eylül 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Özel, F. M. (2017). Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications, 1(2), 5-13.
AMA Özel FM. Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis. ijiea, IJIEA. Aralık 2017;1(2):5-13.
Chicago Özel, Fatih M. “Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis”. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications 1, sy. 2 (Aralık 2017): 5-13.
EndNote Özel FM (01 Aralık 2017) Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications 1 2 5–13.
IEEE F. M. Özel, “Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis”, ijiea, IJIEA, c. 1, sy. 2, ss. 5–13, 2017.
ISNAD Özel, Fatih M. “Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis”. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications 1/2 (Aralık 2017), 5-13.
JAMA Özel FM. Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis. ijiea, IJIEA. 2017;1:5–13.
MLA Özel, Fatih M. “Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis”. International Journal of Innovative Engineering Applications, c. 1, sy. 2, 2017, ss. 5-13.
Vancouver Özel FM. Achieving 2050 Decarbonisation Target of the Automotive Industry in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis. ijiea, IJIEA. 2017;1(2):5-13.