STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF AIR CARGO TRANSPORTATION ON FOREIGN TRADE AND GNP: THE EUROPEAN EXAMPLE

Öz

Air Cargo (AC) transportation, which is a sub domain of supply chain, has been progressed every year with in the harmony global trade volume. In addition, its advantage about fast delivery option, developments in e-commerce and B2C paradigm ensures its increase potential with the expectation of 96% until 2025. During the COVID19 outbreak, losses in the AC activities relatively got less number compared to other transportation branches due to the successful strategies and burst of demand. Products, which ought to be ensured deliver on time, needs developments and continuous investment in the sector. Investments have to be decided with the realistic future expectations. Hence it’s crucial to determine AC activities’ associated economic parameters. In the study, 11 countries with the highest GNP in the European continent were included in the research universe by making use of the world bank open access data, and the causal relationship between the HK flights of the relevant countries and their import, export and GNP was examined.. Granger / Toda-Yamamoto causality test shows evidence, it can be said that Germany, England, France and Sweden actively use AC transportation and this type of transportation positively affects their economy. While some countries actively use AC transportation in imports and some in exports, Poland mainly focuses on other types of transportation instead of AC.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Casuality Analysis
• Air Cargo
• Aviation Management
• Supply Chain Management
• international logistics

HAVA KARGO TAŞIMACILIĞININ DIŞ TİCARET ve GSMH ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNE YÖNELİK ÇALIŞMA: AVRUPA ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Hava kargo (HK) taşımacılığı, tedarik zincirinde önemli bir taşımacılık türü olup küresel ticaret hacminin artışı ve havacılık sektör büyümesi paralelinde her geçen yıl gelişim göstermektedir. Özellikle sunduğu zaman avantajına ilave olarak e-ticaret kavramı ile gelişen, üreticiden direkt tüketiciye teslimat paradigması sayesinde gelecekte de gelişimini sürdüreceği ve 2025 yılına kadar %96’lık ek büyüme göstereceği öngörülmektedir (ICAO, 2019; Van Asch vd, 2020). Küresel COVID19 salgını süresince, havacılığın diğer alanlarına nazaran artan talep ve başarılı stratejiler sayesinde tedarik zincirindeki kayıplar, asgari düzeyde tutulabilmiştir. Ürünlerin küresel pazara tam zamanında sunulması için elzem olan HK taşımacılığındaki gelişim, sürdürülebilir ve yatırım desteğine muhtaçtır. İlgili yatırım kararları ise gerçekçi gelecek öngörüsü altında yapılmalıdır. Bu sebeple kargo uçuşlarının bağlantılı olduğu parametreleri, uçuş faaliyetlerini hangi yönde ve ne derecede etkilediği hususlarının tespiti, kaynakların etkin kullanımı ilkesi gereğince hayati öneme haizdir. Çalışmada dünya bankası açık erişim verilerinden yararlanılarak Avrupa kıtasında en yüksek GSMH’ye sahip 11 ülke araştırma evrenine dahil edilmiş, ilgili ülkelerin HK uçuşları ile ithalat, ihracat ve GSMH’lerinin arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Granger / Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi aracılığı ile ilgili parametreler incelenmiş ve genel olarak Almanya, İngiltere, Fransa ve İsveç’in HK taşımacılığını aktif şekilde kullandıklarını ve bu taşıma türünün ekonomilerini pozitif etkilediği söylenebilir. HK taşımacılığını bazı ülkeler ithalatta bazıları ise ihracatta aktif olarak kullanırken, Polonya’nın ağırlıklı olarak HK yerine diğer taşımacılık türlerine ağırlık verdiği anlamına gelmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nedensellik Analizi
• Hava Kargo
• Tedarik Zinciri Yönetimi
• Havacılık Yönetimi
• international logistics

Kaynakça

1. Referans1 Baker, D., Merkert, R. ve Kamruzzaman, M. (2015). Regional aviation and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis in Australia. Journal of Transport Geography, 43, 140-150
2. Referans2 Bastola, D. P. (2017). Analysis of the aviation industry as a growth sector of economy: a study of Nepali aviation industries. International Journal of Advanced Research and Publications, 1(2), 70-75
3. Referans3 Chang, Y. H. ve Chang, Y. W. (2009). Air cargo expansion and economic growth: Finding the empirical link. Journal of Air Transport Management, 15(5), 264-265.
4. Referans4 Cheung, Y. W. ve Lai, K. S. (1995). Lag order and critical values of the augmented Dickey–Fuller test. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 277-280
5. Referans5 Chi, J. (2014). A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States. Journal of Air Transport Management, 39, 41-47
6. Referans6 Choi, J. H. ve Park, Y. H. (2020). Investigating paradigm shift from price to value in the air cargo market. Sustainability, 12(23), 10202
7. Referans7 Dobruszkes, F., Lennert, M. ve Van Hamme, G. (2011). An analysis of the determinants of air traffic volume for European metropolitan areas. Journal of Transport Geography, 19(4), 755-762
8. Referans8 Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276

9. Referans9 EUROCONTROL (2022, 2 Ocak). Network Business Intelligence. STATFOR – Airports. https://ext.eurocontrol.int/analytics
10. Referans10 Gal, Y. ve Hadas, E. (2015). Why projects fail: Knowledge worker and the reward effect. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 6(4), 968-977
11. Referans11 Gordon, D. V. (1995). Optimal lag length in estimating Dickey–Fuller statistics: an empirical note. Applied Economics Letters, 2(6), 188-190.
12. Referans12 Granger, C. W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37 (3), 424-438.
13. Referans13 Granger, C. W. ve Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of econometrics, 2(2), 111-120
14. Referans14 Hakim, M. M. ve Merkert, R. (2016). The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia. Journal of Transport geography, 56, 120-127
15. Referans15 Hanson, D., Delibasi, T. T., Gatti, M. ve Cohen, S. (2022). How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts. Journal of Air Transport Management, 98, 102147
16. Referans16 Higgoda P.G.R.R.B (2020). Dynamic Nexus Between Air Transportation And Economic Growth In Sri Lanka, DBA Theses, University of Kelaniya
17. Referans17 Hu,Y., Xiao, J., Deng, Y., Xiao, Y. & Wang, S. (2015). Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: Evidence from heterogeneous panel models. Journal of Air Transport Management, Volume 42, 95-100.
18. Referans18 Hylleberg, S. ve Mizon, G. E. (1989). Cointegration and error correction mechanisms. The Economic Journal, 99(395), 113-125
19. Referans19 IATA. (2021, 2 Ocak). “Cargo Chartbook, Q4 2021”. IATA Economics, Market Developments Cargo Chartbook. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/cargo-chartbook---q4-2021/
20. Referans20 ICAO (2019, 26 Aralık). “Aviation Benefits Report 2019”. https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/AVIATION-BENEFITS-2019-web.pdf
21. Referans21 ICAO (2022). “Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID‐19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis” Economic Development – Air Transport Bureau. March 2022, Montreal Canada
22. Referans22 Kasarda, J. D. ve Green, J. D. (2005). Air cargo as an economic development engine: A note on opportunities and constraints. Journal of Air Transport Management, 11(6), 459-462
23. Referans23 Khan, H. U. R., Siddique, M., Zaman, K., Yousaf, S. U., Shoukry, A. M., Gani, S., ... & Saleem, H. (2018). The impact of air transportation, railways transportation, and port container traffic on energy demand, customs duty, and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Journal of Air Transport Management, 70, 18-35
24. Referans24 Kiracı, K. (2017). Havayolu Taşımacılığı ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Uygulama. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 33(1), 197-216
25. Referans25 Kızılgöl, Ö. ve Erbaykal, E. (2008). Türkiye’de turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Bir nedensellik analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13(2), 351-360
26. Referans26 Krämer, W. (1998). Fractional integration and the augmented Dickey–Fuller test. Economics Letters, 61(3), 269-272
27. Referans27 Marazzo, M., Scherre, R. ve Fernandes, E. (2010). Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 46(2), 261-269
28. Referans28 Marazzo, M., Scherre, R. ve Fernandes, E. (2010). Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 46(2), 261-269
29. Referans29 Marciszewska, E., Bergel, I. ve Hoszman, A. (2016). Failed Assessment of Mobility Needs–‘White Elephant’Airports. Journal of Management and Financial Sciences, 9(26), 79-95
30. Referans30 Meersman, H. ve Nazemzadeh, M. (2017). The contribution of transport infrastructure to economic activity: The case of Belgium. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 5(2), 316-324
31. Referans31 Seсilmis, N., & Koс, A. (2016). Economic factors affecting aviation demand: Practice of EU countries. Актуальні проблеми економіки, (5), 412-420.
32. Referans32 Taşdemir, M. & Aydın, E. (2021). “Havacılığın Kâbus Yılı 2020: Havayollarının Covid-19 ve Önceki Krizlere Tepkileri & Yerde Kalan Uçaklar”. Girişimcilik ve Kalkınma Dergisi, 16 (1), 1-14 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/girkal/issue/64462/864632
33. Referans33 Toda, H. Y., ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250
34. Referans34 Tsen, W. H. (2006). Granger causality tests among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth in China: 1952–1999. International Economic Journal, 20(3), 285-302
35. Referans35 Van Asch, T., Dewulf, W., Kupfer, F., Cárdenas, I. ve Van de Voorde, E. (2020). Cross-border e-commerce logistics–Strategic success factors for airports. Research in Transportation Economics, 79, 100761
36. Referans36 Worldbank (2021, 20 Aralık ). “GSMH (current US$)”. World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GSMH.MKTP.CD
37. Referans37 Yao, S. ve Yang, X. (2012). Air transport and regional economic growth in China. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 19(3), 318-329