BRICS ÜLKELERİNDE FİNANSAL GELİŞMİŞLİĞİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLERİN ANALİZİ

Öz

Bir ülkenin ekonomik kalkınması ve sürdürülebilir büyümesi için finansal gelişmişlik hayati bir öneme sahiptir. Finansal sektör gelişiminin belirleyicilerine odaklanan literatür çok çeşitlidir ancak tartışmalıdır. Bu çalışmada, BRICS ülkeleri için doğal kaynaklar, ekonomik büyüme, tasarruflar, cari işlemler dengesi ve finansal sektör gelişimi arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin ampirik olarak araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkileri tahmin etmek için Tamamen Değiştirilmiş Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (FMOLS) ve Dinamik Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) metodolojileri kullanılmıştır. Analizler, 2001-2020 döneminin verileriyle gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermektedir. FMOLS modellerinin uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin sonuçlarına göre, kişi başına ekonomik büyüme, toplam doğal kaynak rantı ve cari hesap dengesi ile finansal gelişme arasında negatif istatistiki olarak anlamlı ilişki, brüt tasarruflar ile finansal gelişme arasında pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı ilişki bulunmuştur. DOLS sonuçlarına göre; kişi başına ekonomik büyüme, toplam doğal kaynak rantı ile finansal gelişme arasında negatif ve anlamlı bir ilişki mevcutken, brüt tasarruflar ile finansal gelişme arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar BRICS ülkeleri için finansal sürdürülebilirlik perspektifi içerisinde tartışılmış ve politika çıkarımları sunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişmişlik
• Tamamen Değiştirilmiş Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Modeli (FMOLS)
• Dinamik Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) Modeli

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN BRICS COUNTRIES

Abstract

Financial development is of vital importance for a country's economic development and sustainable growth. The literature focusing on the determinants of financial sector development is diverse but controversial. This study aims to empirically investigate the long-term relationship between natural resources, economic growth, savings, current account balance, and financial sector development for BRICS countries. The Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) methodologies were used to estimate long- and short-term relationships in the study. Analyses were conducted using data from the period 2001-2020. Empirical findings indicate that the variables are cointegrated. According to the estimation results of FMOLS models' long-term coefficients, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between per capita economic growth, total natural resource rent, current account balance, and financial development, and a statistically significant positive relationship between gross savings and financial development. According to the DOLS results, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between per capita economic growth and total natural resource rent with financial development, and a statistically significant positive relationship between gross savings and financial development. The results are discussed within the context of the financial sustainability perspective for BRICS countries and policy implications are presented.

Keywords

• Financial Development
• Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares Model (FMOLS)
• Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) Model.

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