NON-PARAMETRIC EVIDENCE ON THE DETERMINANTS OF FINANCIAL INCLUSION: A STUDY ON MINT COUNTRIES

Abstract

Financial inclusion, which means ensuring equal access to financial services at affordable prices for all, regardless of their income level, is a major global issue. Around one and a half billion people, mainly in developing countries, have no access to credit. This study aims to determine the role of economic, political, and financial variables on financial inclusion from the perspective of MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey) countries. The study, which covers the period 2004–2021, first tested the suitability of the variables for the analyses using basic statistical tests, cross-sectional dependence and unit root tests. Subsequently, econometric analyses were carried out within the framework of the method of moments panel quantile regressions (MM-QREG) and simultaneous panel quantile regression. As a result of the analyses, strong non-parametric evidence was obtained regarding the roles of political stability and GDP per capita on financial inclusion. Accordingly, political stability and per capita GDP variables have significant and positive effects at all quantile levels. Moreover, the effect of foreign direct investment on financial inclusion is considerable at limited quantile levels and is negative.

Keywords

• Financial Inclusion
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Political Stability
• GDP Per Capita
• Panel Quantile Regression

FİNANSAL İÇERMENİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ ÜZERİNE PARAMETRİK OLMAYAN KANITLAR: MINT ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Öz

Gelir düzeyi ne olursa olsun herkesin finansal hizmetlere eşit düzeyde ve uygun fiyatlarla erişiminin sağlanması anlamına gelen finansal içerme (kapsayıcılık) dünya çapında önemli bir sorundur. Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yaşayan yaklaşık bir buçuk milyar insanın krediye erişimi bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma MINT (Meksika, Endonezya, Nijerya, Türkiye) ülkeleri penceresinden finansal içerme üzerinde ekonomik, politik ve finansal değişkenlerin rolünü belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. 2004-2021 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada öncelikle temel istatistiki testler, yatay kesit bağımlılığı, birim kök testleri ile değişkenlerin analizlere uygunluğu sınanmış sonraki aşamada momentler yöntemi panel kantil regresyonları (MM-QREG) ve eşanlı panel kantil regresyon çerçevesinde ekonometrik analizler yapılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda finansal içerme üzerinde özellikle politik istikrar ve kişi başına düşen gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılanın rollerine dair güçlü parametrik olmayan kanıtlara ulaşılmıştır. Buna göre politik istikrar ve kişi başına düşen gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla değişkenleri tüm kantil seviyelerinde anlamlı ve pozitif etkilere sahiptir. Buna karşın doğrudan yabancı yatırımların finansal içerme üzerindeki etkisi sınırlı kantil düzeylerinde anlamlı olup, negatif yönlüdür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal İçerme
• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım
• Politik İstikrar
• Kişi Başına Düşen Gayrisafi Milli Hasıla
• Panel Kantil Regresyon

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