EVALUATION OF NAFTA INTEGRATION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF POLARIZATION HYPOTHESIS: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Öz

The polarization hypothesis suggests that economic integration of countries at different development levels will increase the development gap between member countries. The basic assumption of the hypothesis is that after integration, factor mobility will occur from the periphery to the center with cumulative causality mechanisms. On the other hand, there are also views that suggest that factor mobility will be from the center to the periphery. Studies testing these two hypotheses in the literature mostly focus on European Union countries. In this study, polarization theory was examined specifically in the context of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and it was tested with statistical methods whether the development gap between member countries increased with the establishment of the said integration. In the study, the data set of the variables of polarization level, openness, trade volume between members and foreign capital investments, covering the years 1991-2019 and 3 countries, was subjected to panel data analysis. The polarization level was calculated for each country by squaring the difference of the relevant country's GDP from the average of all GDPs. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that openness and foreign capital investments reduce polarization between countries, but trade between members increases polarization. Based on the analysis results, recommendations were made for developing countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Polarization Hypothesis
• Economic Integration
• NAFTA

KUTUPLAŞMA HİPOTEZİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE NAFTA ENTEGRASYONUNUN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Kutuplaşma hipotezi, farklı gelişmişlik düzeyindeki ülkelerin oluşturduğu ekonomik entegrasyonların, üye ülkelerdeki gelişmişlik farklarını arttıracağını ileri sürer. Hipotezin temel varsayımı entegrasyondan sonra kümülatif nedensellik mekanizmaları ile faktör hareketliliğinin çevreden merkeze doğru olacağıdır. Diğer yandan faktör hareketliliğinin merkezden çevreye doğru olacağını ileri süren görüşler de bulunmaktadır. Literatürde bu iki hipotezi sınayan çalışmalar çoğunlukla Avrupa Birliği üyesi ülkeleri konu almaktadır. Bu çalışmada kutuplaşma teorisi, Kuzey Amerika Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması (NAFTA-North American Free Trade Agreement) özelinde incelenmiş, söz konusu entegrasyonun kurulmasıyla üye ülkeler arasındaki gelişmişlik farkı açığının artıp artmadığı istatistiksel yöntemler ile test edilmiştir. Çalışmada, 1970-2020 yıllarını ve 3 ülkeyi kapsayan kutuplaşma düzeyi, dışa açıklık, üyeler arasındaki ticaret hacmi ve yabancı sermaye yatırımları değişkenlerine ait veri seti panel veri analizine tabi tutulmuştur. Kutuplaşma düzeyi, her bir ülke için tüm GSYH’lerin ortalamasından ilgili ülkenin GSYH’sinin farkının karesi alınarak hesaplanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda dışa açıklık ve yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının ülkeler arasındaki kutuplaşmayı azalttığı ancak üyelerin kendi aralarında gerçekleştirdikleri ticaretin kutuplaşmayı artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarından yola çıkarak gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik önerilerde bulunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kutuplaşma Hipotezi
• Ekonomik Entegrasyon
• NAFTA

Kaynakça

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