DENİZYOLU KONTEYNER TAŞIMACILIĞINI ETKİLEYEN EKONOMİK FAKTÖRLER: AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ (AB) ÜLKELERİ İÇİN BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Uluslararası ticarette en önemli taşımacılık sistemlerinden biri olan denizyolu konteyner taşımacılığı, ticaret hacmi, ekonomik büyüme ve lojistik ağların genişlemesi üzerinde önemli etkilere sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, denizyolu konteyner taşımacılığını etkileyen temel ekonomik değişkenleri belirlemek ve bu değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla, Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon ve döviz kurunun denizyolu konteyner taşımacılığı üzerindeki etkileri 2000-2022 dönemi verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi ile incelenmiştir. Panel veri analizi kapsamında yapılan ön testler, sabit etkiler modeli için “Driscoll-Kray Standart Hatalar” yönteminin uygun bir sağlam tahmin modeli olarak kullanılabileceğini göstermiştir. Bu modelin seçimi, analiz sonuçlarının sağlamlığını artırması ve hata terimlerindeki olası bağımlılıkları ortadan kaldırması açısından önem taşımaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları değişkenler arasında anlamlı ilişkiler olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ekonomik büyümedeki bir birimlik artış denizyolu konteyner taşımacılığında 1,13 birimlik artışa yol açmaktadır. Öte yandan, enflasyondaki bir birimlik artış deniz konteyner taşımacılığında 1,15 birimlik bir düşüşe yol açmaktadır. Son olarak, döviz kurundaki bir birimlik artış deniz konteyner taşımacılığında 0,36 birimlik bir artışa yol açmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uluslararası Ticaret
• Denizyolu Konteyner Taşımacılığı
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Avrupa Birliği
• Panel Veri Analizi

ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING MARITIME CONTAINER TRANSPORTATION: AN ANALYSIS FOR EUROPEAN UNION (EU) COUNTRIES

Abstract

As one of the most important transportation systems in international trade, maritime container transportation has significant impacts on trade volume, economic growth and expansion of logistics networks. The aim of this study is to identify the main economic variables affecting maritime container transportation and to analyze the relationships between these variables. For this purpose, the effects of economic growth, inflation and exchange rate on maritime container transportation in European Union (EU) countries are analyzed by panel data analysis using data for the period 2000-2022. Preliminary tests within the scope of panel data analysis indicated the use of the "Driscoll-Kray Standard Errors" method as an appropriate robust estimation model for the fixed effects model. The choice of this model is important in terms of increasing the robustness of the analysis results and eliminating possible dependencies in the error terms. The findings of the study reveal that there are significant relationships between the variables. A one unit increase in economic growth leads to a 1.13 unit increase in maritime container transportation. On the other hand, a one-unit increase in inflation leads to a 1.15-unit decrease in maritime container transportation. Finally, a one-unit increase in the exchange rate leads to an increase of 0.36 units in maritime container transportation.

Keywords

• International Trade
• Maritime Container Transportation
• Economic Growth
• European Union
• Panel Data Analysis.

Kaynakça

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