SIRADAN ENFLASYON DEĞİL, GREEDFLASYON: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Enflasyon pek çok farklı şekilde ve farklı sebeple ortaya çıkabilmektedir. Arz, talep, beklentiler ve para politikası gibi sebeplerden kaynaklanan geleneksel enflasyon çeşitlerine ilave olarak, son zamanlarda bahsedilen yeni enflasyon çeşitleri de literatürde yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmanın konusu firmaların yüksek kar hırsıyla fiyatları yükseltmesi olarak tanımlanan greedflation (greedflasyon, hırsflasyon)’dur. Greedflasyon, özellikle yüksek enflasyon ortamında şirketlerin tüketicilerin fiyat algılarındaki bozulmayı istismar ederek fiyatları maliyet artışlarının çok üzerinde artırmaları ve böylece hem karlılıklarını hem de enflasyonu artırmaları durumunu ifade eden bir kavramdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de greedflasyon kavramının geçerli olup olmadığını ekonometrik olarak analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada 2005Q4-2023Q4 dönemine ait enflasyon, döviz kuru, M1 para arzı ve faaliyet artığı verileri kullanılarak yapısal kırılmalı birim kök ve yapısal kırılmalı regresyon tahmin yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Granger testi ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Türkiye'de son yıllarda yaşanan yüksek enflasyonun büyük ölçüde greedflasyondan kaynaklandığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca döviz kurunun ve M1 para arzının da enflasyon üzerindeki etkili olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Greedflasyon
• Kar Enflasyonu
• Zaman Serisi
• Yapısal Kırılmalı Regresyon.

NOT REGULAR INFLATION, BUT GREEDFLATION: CASE OF TURKEY

Öz

Inflation can occur in many different ways and for many different reasons. In addition to the traditional types of inflation caused by supply, demand, expectations and monetary policy, new types of inflation have recently been mentioned in the literature. The subject of this study is greedflation, which is defined as firms raising prices in pursuit of higher profits. Greedflation is a concept that refers to the situation in which firms, especially in a high inflation environment, exploit the deterioration in consumers' price perceptions and raise prices well above cost increases, thereby increasing both their profitability and inflation. This study econometrically analyzes whether the concept of greedflation is valid in Turkey. The study uses inflation, exchange rate, M1 money supply and operating surplus data for the period 2005Q4-2023Q4 and employs unit root with structural breaks and regression estimation methods with structural breaks. In addition, the causality relationship between the variables is tested with Granger test. According to the findings, it is concluded that the high inflation experienced in Turkey in recent years is largely due to greedflation. In addition, exchange rate and M1 money supply are also found to be influential on inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Greedflation
• Profit Inflation
• Time Series
• Structural Break Regression.

Kaynakça

1. Agiomirgianakis, G., Arvanitis, S. Mamatzakis, E., & Sfakianakis, G. (2024). Net Interest Income of Greek Banks: is it a case of Bankflation?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 46, 417-431.
2. Bagus, P., Howden, D., & Gabriel, A. (2014). Business and Society Review. Business and Society Review, 119, 497-517. https://doi.org/10.1111/basr.12043.
3. Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. J. Appl. Econ., 18, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659.
4. Bianchi, F., Faccini, R., & Melosi, L. (2020). Monetary And Fiscal Policies In Times Of Large Debt: Unity Is Strength. NBER Working Papers 27112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
5. Bennett, J. N. (2022). Beyond Inflation Numbers: Shrinkflation and Skimpflation. Page One Economics®. da Silva Filho, T. N. T. (2002). An Operational Definition of Price Stability. Banco Central do Brasil.
6. Dayı, F., (2020). The Effect Of Inflation On Firm Profitability: An Application In Retail Sector Of Borsa Istanbul. Süleyman Demirel University Visionary Journal, 11(26), 62-72. https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.650683.
7. Dekimpe, M. G., & van Heerde, H. J., (2023). Retailing in times of soaring inflation: What we know, what we don't know, and a research agenda. Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, 99(3), 322-336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretai.2023.07.002.
8. Duvan O. B. (2024). Contribution of corporate profits to inflation in Türkiye after Covid-19. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 8(1), 109-125. https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1418545.

9. Evangelidis, I. (2024). Skimpflation outrage: Decreases in product quality are seen as much more unfair than decreases in size and increases in price. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4731245 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4731245.
10. Evans, A.J., & Thorpe, R. (2013). The (quantity) theory of money and credit. Rev Austrian Econ 26, 463–481 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11138-013-0226-8.
11. Fisher, I., & Brown, H. G. (1911). The Purchasing Power of Money: Its Determination and Relation to Credit, Interest and Crises. Macmillan.
12. Fix, B. (2023). The key to managing inflation: Higher wages. Economics from the Top Down.
13. Friedman, M. (1956). Studies in the quantity theory of money. University of Chicago Press.
14. Friedman, M. (1970). A theoretical framework for monetary analysis. The Journal of Political Economy, 78, 193–238.
15. Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791.
16. Gocer, İ., & Aslan, R. (2020). Mali sistemin sürdürülebilirliği: Türkiye için yeni nesil bir zaman serisi analizi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(2), 163-178.
17. Ha, J., Stocker, M. M. & Yilmazkuday, H. (2020). Inflation and exchange rate pass-through. Journal of International Money and Finance, 105, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102187.
18. Hornstein, A. (2023). Notes on Profits and Inflation in the Time of COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Accessed from: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/economic_brief/2023/pdf/Appendix-Notes-EB-23-38.pdf.
19. International Monetary Fund (2009). System of national accounts 2008, USA: International Monetary Fund. Retrieved May 8, 2024, from https://doi.org/10.5089/9789211615227.071.
20. Kara, A., & Nelson, E. (2003). The exchange rate and inflation in the UK. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 50, 585-608. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0036-9292.2003.05005003.x.
21. Karaca, O. (2003). Türkiye’de enflasyon - büyüme ilişkisi: Zaman serisi analizi. Dogus Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4(2), 247-255.
22. Kaya, H., & Soybilgen, B. (2019). Ana harcama gruplari için döviz kuru geçişkenliği. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 648, 55-68. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1210198.
23. Krompas, I. (2023). Was there any greed after all? The lack of greedflation evidence in Greek economic data. HAPSc Policy Briefs Series, 4(2), 138–146. https://doi.org/10.12681/hapscpbs.36692.
24. Leduc, S., Li, H. & Liu, Z. (2024). Are markups driving the ups and downs of inflation?. FRBSF Economic Letter.
25. Lee, J., & Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3211829.
26. Lee, J., & Strazicich, M.C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Appalachian State University Working Papers 04-17, 1-15.
27. Meral, P. S. (2005). Enflasyon ve enflasyonun okuma alişkanliğina etkisi. Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(19), 309-324.
28. Miljkovic, D. (1999). The law of one price in international trade: A critical review. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 21, 126-139. https://doi.org/10.2307/1349976.
29. Nikiforos, M., Grothe, S., & Weber, J. D. (2024). Markups, profit shares, and cost-pushprofit-led inflation. Industrial and corporate change. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtae003.
30. Obiora, K. (2023). Corporate profits and inflation in Nigeria with international evidence. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4563118 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4563118.
31. Oner, C. (2022). Inflation: Prices on the rise. Finance & Development Magazine, August 15, International Monetary Fund.
32. Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361–1401. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913712.
33. Pigou, A. C. (1917). The value of money. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 32, 38–65. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885078.
34. Schneider, M. (2024). What contributes to consumer price inflation? A novel decomposition framework with an application to Austria, Working Paper, No. 255, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Vienna.
35. Shamir, J. (1985). Consumers’ subjective perception of price in times of inflation. Journal of Economic Psychology, 6(4), 383–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-4870(85)90026-1.
36. Su, C. W., Fan, J. J., Chang, H. L. & Li, X.L. (2016). Is there causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation in China? Evidence from quantity theory of money. Rev Dev Econ, 20, 702-719. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12194.
37. Uçar, F.(2020). Mahfi Eğilmez: Türkiye skimpflasyon ve shrinkflasyon dönemine girdi, bu ne demek? https://coin-turk.com/mahfi-egilmez-turkiye-skimpflasyon-ve-shrinkflasyon-donemine-girdi-bu-ne-demek Accessed 20.05.2025.
38. Vinod, H. D. (2022). Greedflation from causal paths between profits and inflation, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4134413 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4134413.
39. Vogelsang, T. J., & Perron, P. (1998). Additional tests for a unit root allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time. International Economic Review, 39(4), 1073-1100. https://doi.org/10.2307/2527353.
40. Yergin, H., Günsan, N., & Yiğenoğlu, K.(2024). Real inflation in the context of shrinkflation and skimpflation. Journal of Academic Opinion, 4(1): 1-6.
41. Yerdelen Tatoglu, F. (2020). Panel zaman serileri analizi (3rd ed.). Beta Basım Yayın Dağıtım. Yilanci, V. (2009). Yapısal kirilmalar altinda Türkiye için işsizlik histerisinin sinanmasi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2), 324-335.
42. Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391541.