SIRADAN ENFLASYON DEĞİL, GREEDFLASYON: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 1, 216 - 238, 26.03.2026

Cemaleddin Gerede

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1650476

https://izlik.org/JA35KN27KK

Öz

Enflasyon pek çok farklı şekilde ve farklı sebeple ortaya çıkabilmektedir. Arz, talep, beklentiler ve para politikası gibi sebeplerden kaynaklanan geleneksel enflasyon çeşitlerine ilave olarak, son zamanlarda bahsedilen yeni enflasyon çeşitleri de literatürde yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmanın konusu firmaların yüksek kar hırsıyla fiyatları yükseltmesi olarak tanımlanan greedflation (greedflasyon, hırsflasyon)’dur. Greedflasyon, özellikle yüksek enflasyon ortamında şirketlerin tüketicilerin fiyat algılarındaki bozulmayı istismar ederek fiyatları maliyet artışlarının çok üzerinde artırmaları ve böylece hem karlılıklarını hem de enflasyonu artırmaları durumunu ifade eden bir kavramdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de greedflasyon kavramının geçerli olup olmadığını ekonometrik olarak analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada 2005Q4-2023Q4 dönemine ait enflasyon, döviz kuru, M1 para arzı ve faaliyet artığı verileri kullanılarak yapısal kırılmalı birim kök ve yapısal kırılmalı regresyon tahmin yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Granger testi ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, Türkiye'de son yıllarda yaşanan yüksek enflasyonun büyük ölçüde greedflasyondan kaynaklandığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca döviz kurunun ve M1 para arzının da enflasyon üzerindeki etkili olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Greedflasyon , Kar Enflasyonu , Zaman Serisi , Yapısal Kırılmalı Regresyon.

NOT REGULAR INFLATION, BUT GREEDFLATION: CASE OF TURKEY

https://izlik.org/JA35KN27KK

Öz

Inflation can occur in many different ways and for many different reasons. In addition to the traditional types of inflation caused by supply, demand, expectations and monetary policy, new types of inflation have recently been mentioned in the literature. The subject of this study is greedflation, which is defined as firms raising prices in pursuit of higher profits. Greedflation is a concept that refers to the situation in which firms, especially in a high inflation environment, exploit the deterioration in consumers' price perceptions and raise prices well above cost increases, thereby increasing both their profitability and inflation. This study econometrically analyzes whether the concept of greedflation is valid in Turkey. The study uses inflation, exchange rate, M1 money supply and operating surplus data for the period 2005Q4-2023Q4 and employs unit root with structural breaks and regression estimation methods with structural breaks. In addition, the causality relationship between the variables is tested with Granger test. According to the findings, it is concluded that the high inflation experienced in Turkey in recent years is largely due to greedflation. In addition, exchange rate and M1 money supply are also found to be influential on inflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Greedflation , Profit Inflation , Time Series , Structural Break Regression.

Kaynakça

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