OSMANLI İZMİR'İNDE TİCARİ DEĞİŞİM: ŞİRKET HAYATTA KALIMI ÜZERİNE NİCEL BİR ANALİZ (1888-1893)

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 1, 513 - 557, 26.03.2026

Aytuğ Zekeriya Bolcan , Ü. Serdar Serdaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1676976

https://izlik.org/JA57GG28FJ

Öz

Bu çalışma, geç on dokuzuncu yüzyıl İzmir’inde işletme sürekliliğini “uzun dönem kurumsal devamlılık” olarak değil, 1888 ve 1893 tarihli iki yerel ticaret rehberi arasında beş yıllık yeniden listelenme (operasyonel hayatta kalma) olarak tanımlar ve ölçer. Orijinal kayıtlardan (isim–meslek/sektör–adres) hareketle standartlaştırılmış temizleme ve eşleştirme (record-linkage) protokolü uygulanmış; 1888’de gözlenen 1.655 işletmenin 456’sının (≈%28) 1893’te yeniden göründüğü bir analitik örneklem oluşturulmuştur. Lojistik regresyon bulguları, beş yıllık hayatta kalma olasılığının millet/uyruk, sektör ve kentsel konum ile birlikte değiştiğini göstermektedir. Yunan (Grec) referans grubuna kıyasla Turc etiketli işletmeler güçlü ve tutarlı bir avantaj sergilerken, Ermeni işletmeler anlamlı biçimde daha düşük hayatta kalma olasılığına sahiptir; Yahudi ve Avrupalı gruplara ilişkin farklar kontroller eklendiğinde daha zayıf ve istikrarsızdır. Sektör bakımından, sağlık/medikal hizmetler ile profesyonel-finansal hizmetler daha yüksek; perakende-toptan ticaret ile tarım-gıda daha düşük hayatta kalma ile ilişkilidir. Mekânsal olarak hanlarda yer alan işletmeler dezavantajlı, sokak üzeri (Rue/Sokak) işletmeler ise sınırlı bir avantaja sahiptir. Nedensellik iddiası taşımayan bu sonuçlar, “Osmanlı’da azınlık avantajı”na dair basitleştirilmiş kabulleri sorgulayarak kimlik–uzmanlaşma–kentsel dönüşüm kesişiminin ticari sürekliliği nasıl şekillendirdiğini ortaya koyar.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Firma Hayatta Kalması , Osmanlı İzmir’i (Smyrna) , Ticaret Rehberleri ve Yıllıkları , Uyruk/Millet , Lojistik Regresyon

NAVIGATING BUSINESS CHANGE IN OTTOMAN İZMİR: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF FIRM SURVIVAL (1888-1893)

https://izlik.org/JA57GG28FJ

Öz

This article analyzes firm survival in late nineteenth-century İzmir (Smyrna) by operationalizing “longevity” as five-year persistence between two locally compiled commercial directories (1888 and 1893). We construct a record-linked micro-dataset from the original entries (names, occupations, and addresses) using a standardized cleaning and matching protocol; the regression sample includes 1,655 establishments observed in 1888, of which 456 (≈28%) reappear in 1893. Using logistic regression, we estimate the association between five-year survival and communal affiliation (millet/nationality), sector, and urban location. Relative to Greek-listed firms (reference group), Turc-owned establishments display a large and robust survival advantage, while Armenian-owned firms exhibit significantly lower survival odds; Jewish and European categories show smaller and less stable differences once controls are introduced. Sectoral results indicate markedly higher survival in Healthcare & Medical Services and in Professional & Financial Services, and significantly lower survival in Retail & Wholesale Trade and in Agriculture & Food. Spatially, firms located in hans (caravanserais) are less likely to persist, whereas street-front (Rue/Sokak) locations are modestly advantaged. Interpreted cautiously as conditional associations (not causal effects), these findings challenge a simplified “Ottoman minority advantage” narrative and show how identity, specialization, and urban transformation intersected to shape commercial persistence in a cosmopolitan port-city economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Firm Survival , Ottoman İzmir/Smyrna , Commercial Directories , Ethnicity/Nationality , Logistic Regression

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