NEW INFLATION PHENOMENA FROM A BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS PERSPECTIVE: A THEORETICAL MODELING APPROACH

Öz

In the post-Covid-19 period, global inflation has surged due to suppressed demand, supply chain disruptions, rising costs, regional conflicts, and energy crises. What distinguishes this recent wave of inflation from previous episodes is its diverse and evolving nature. Emerging concepts such as greedflation, shrinkflation, and skimpflation, which have recently emerged in the literature and remain topical, have been observed across various countries and sectors. Drawing on insights from relevant studies, this paper brings together critiques of neoclassical assumptions with behavioral economics theories concerning firm and consumer decision-making processes. A theoretical model is proposed that reconsiders profit and utility maximization through a behavioral economics lens. Unlike previous studies, this research aims to establish a novel link between recent inflation phenomena and behavioral economics. The consumer utility function and the firm profit function constructed through agent-based modeling consist of variables that are consistent with the framework of behavioral economics. In the proposed model, the assumptions of rational profit and utility maximization in classical economics are questioned; it is argued that consumer decisions are shaped by heuristic judgments, asymmetric information, and perceptions of inflation, while producer behavior is influenced by factors such as greedflation, shrinkflation, and skimpflation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Greedflation
• Shrinkflation
• Skimpflation
• Behavioral Economics
• Inflation

DAVRANIŞSAL İKTİSAT PERSPEKTİFİ İLE YENİ ENFLASYON OLGULARI: KURAMSAL BİR MODELLEME YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Covid-19 sonrası dönemde, bastırılmış talep, tedarik zinciri aksamaları, artan maliyetler, bölgesel çatışmalar ve enerji krizleri gibi nedenlerle küresel enflasyon hızla artmıştır. Bu son enflasyon dalgasını önceki dönemlerden ayıran temel unsur, daha çeşitli ve değişken biçimler almasıdır. Greedflasyon, shrinkflasyon ve skimpflasyon gibi kavramlar, yakın zamanda literatüre girmiş ve güncelliğini koruyan kavramlar olup birçok ülke ve sektörde gözlemlenmiştir. Bu çalışma, ilgili çalışmalardan elde edilen bulgularla, firmaların ve tüketicilerin karar alma süreçlerine dair neoklasik varsayımların eleştirisini yapan davranışsal iktisat teorilerini bir araya getirmektedir. Kar ve fayda maksimizasyonu kavramlarını davranışsal iktisat çerçevesinde yeniden değerlendiren kuramsal bir model önerilmektedir. Bu araştırma, literatürden farklı olarak, yeni enflasyon olguları ile davranışsal iktisat arasında özgün bir bağ kurmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ajan temelli modelleme ile kurulan, tüketici fayda fonksiyonu ve firma kar fonksiyonu, davranışsal iktisat çerçevesine uygun olan değişkenlerden oluşturulmuştur. Önerilen modelde, klasik iktisadın rasyonel kar ve fayda maksimizasyonu varsayımları sorgulanmakta; tüketici kararlarının sezgisel yargılar, asimetrik bilgi ve enflasyon algısıyla şekillendiği; üretici davranışlarının ise greedflasyon, shrinkflasyon ve skimpflasyon gibi unsurların etkisi altında olduğu ileri sürülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Greedflasyon
• Shrinkflasyon
• Skimpflasyon
• Davranışsal İktisat
• Enflasyon

Kaynakça

1. Agiomirgianakis, G., Avranitis, S., Mamatzakis, E., & Sfakianakis, G. (2024). Net interest income of Greek Banks: is it a case of Bankflation? Journal of Policy Modelling, 46, 417-431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.01.013
2. Akerlof, G. A. (1970). The Market for "Lemons": Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84(3), 488-500. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-214850-7.50022-X
3. Akinwale, G. A., & Mbewu, S. C. (2024). Exploring the role of personality on shrinkflation among emerging adults in Lagos Metropolis. Nigerian Journal of Behavioural Studies, 1(2), 61-81.
4. Arnott, R., & Stiglitz, J. (1990). The welfare economics of moral hazard. NBER Working Paper Series, 3316, 1-52. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w3316/w3316.pdf
5. Baday Yıldız, E. (2022). Türkiye’de ücret-fiyat sarmalı ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi: ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 8(2), 289-309. https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1160762
6. Bazghandi, A. (2012). Techniques, advantages and problems of agent based modeling for traffic simulation. International Journal of Computer Science Issues, 9(1), 115-119.
7. Bhat, M. A., Wani, F., Alam, T., & Wani, M. (2024). From swelling prices to shrinking sizes: evaluating the ripple effects of inflation and shrinkflation on the economic growth of BIPS countries. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 17(3), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/17520843.2024.2385207
8. Bils, M., & Klenow, P. J. (2001). Quantifying Quality Growth. American Economic Review, 91(4), 1006-1030. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2677823

9. Budianto, F. (2024). Shrinkflation. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=4788863 Accessed 26.01.2025. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4788863
10. Can, Y. (2012). İktisatta psikolojik insan faktörü: Davranışsal iktisat. Hukuk ve İktisat Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(2), 91-98.
11. Cesur, F. (2006). Para arzı ile enflasyon ilişkisi ve Türkiye uygulaması (1994-2004). Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(2), 85-104.
12. Chalioti, E., & Serfes, K. (2024). Shrinkflation. Economic Letters, 244, 1-3. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111959
13. Claus, B., & Pandelaere, M. (2024). Penny‑wise pound‑fooling: a replication with extension of the left‑digit effect to the context of shrinkflation. Marketing Letters, 24(3), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11002-024-09758-y
14. Cory Jr., G. A. (2006). A behavioral model of the dual motive approach to behavioral economics and social exchange. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 35(4), 592-612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2005.12.017
15. Costa-Cabral, F., & Nowag, J. (2023). Greedflation, competition law, and the cost-of-living crisis. Retrieved from https://www.socialistsanddemocrats.eu/sites/default/files/2023-06/greedflation-competition-law-and-the-cost-of-living-crisis-report-final.pdf Accessed 09.01.2025.
16. Dekimpe, M. G., & Heerde, H. J. V. (2023). Retailing in times of soaring inflation: What we know, what we don’t know, and a research agenda. Journal of Retailing, 99(3), 322-336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretai.2023.07.002
17. Demirgil, B. (2019). Türkiye’de enflasyonun belirleyicileri üzerine uygulamalı bir çalışma. Uluslararası Yönetim Eğitim ve Ekonomik Perspektifler Dergisi, 7(1), 13-21.
18. Erdoğan, Z., & Gürbüz, E. (2023). Enflasyon dönemlerinde pazarlama karması uygulamalarını etkileyen küçültme enflasyonu (shrinkflation) ve nitelik kaybı enflasyonu (skimpflation) stratejileri. Journal of Politics, Economy and Management, 6(2), 1-20.
19. Evangelidis, I. (2024). Skimpflation outrage: decreases in product quality are seen as much more unfair than decreases in size and ıncreases in price. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=4731245 Accessed 19.01.2025. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4731245
20. Er, H., Çetin, M. K., & Çetin, E. İ. (2005). Finansta evrimsel algoritmik yaklaşımlar: Genetik algoritma uygulamaları. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, (10)2005, 73-94.
21. Foxall, G. R., Oliveira-Castro, J. M., & Schrezenmaier, T. (2004). The behavioral economics of consumer brand choice: patterns of reinforcement and utility maximization. Behavioural Processes, 66, 235-260. doi:10.1016/j.beproc.2004.03.007
22. Glover, A., Del Rio, J. M., & Ende-Becker, A. V. (2023). How much have record corporate profits contributed to recent inflation? Economic Review, 108(1), 23-35.
23. Gökbulut, F. (2024). Beklenmedik karları vergilendirmek. Vergi Sorunları Dergisi, 425, 66-79.
24. Greaves, J., & Samantha, S. (2024). The Impact of shrinkflation and big data on consumer behavior. World Journal of Advanced Engineering Technology and Sciences, 13(1), 498-504. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjaets.2024.13.1.0422
25. Hornstein, A. (2023). Profits and inflation in the time of COVID. Economic Brief, 23(38),1-12.
26. Hsun-Hsu, S., Fu-Hsiao, C., & Bing-Tsai, S. (2018). Constructing a consumption model of fine dining from the perspective of behavioral economics. Plos One, 13(4), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194886
27. Janssen, A., & Kasinger, J. (2024). Shrinkflation and consumer demand. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=4783491 Accessed 06.01.2025. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4783491
28. Kahneman, D. (2002). Maps of bounded ratıonalıty: a perspectıve on ıntuıtıve judgment and choıce. Retrieved from https://cmapspublic2.ihmc.us/rid=1JYQGMJ2F-12L12PD-12N9/kahnemann-lecture.pdf Accessed 12.02.2025.
29. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
30. Kalaitzandonakes, M., Ellison, B., & Coppess, J. (2024). The Price is right? Consumer preferences for food manufacturer responses to increased input costs. Farmdoc Daily, 14(117), 1-4.
31. Kano, T., Yasui, K., Mikami, T., Asally, M., & Ishiguro, A. (2021). An agent-based model of the interrelation between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activities. Proceedings of The Royal Society, 477. http://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0604
32. Keleş, E., & Eren, E. (2014). Ajan tabanlı modelleme ve hesaplamalı iktisat. Marmara Üniversitesi Öneri Dergisi, 11(42), 197-219. https://doi.org/10.14783/od.v11i42.5000065528
33. Kireeva, A. (2022). Neologisms: Sociolinguistic approach. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=4232119 Accessed 15.05.2025. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4232119
34. Koffarnus, M. N., Franck, C. T., Stein, J. S., & Bickel, W. K. (2015). A modified exponential behavioral economic demand model to better describe consumption data. Exp Clin Psychopharmacol, 23(6),504-512. https://doi.org/10.1037/pha0000045
35. Koppenberg, M., Wimmer, S., & Hirsch, S. (2025). Has corporate greed driven inflation in the European Union? An analysis of the food and beverage industry. Economics Letters, 247, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112164
36. Krompas, I. (2023). Was there any greed after all? The lack of greedflation evidence in Greek economic data. HAPSc Policy Briefs Series, 4(2), https://doi.org/10.12681/hapscpbs.36692
37. Kruse, A., & Nykvist, S. (2024). “Greedflation”: Fact or Fiction? [Master Thesis]. Jönköping University.
38. Lavoie, M. (2024). Questioning profit inflation as an explanation of the post-pandemic inflation. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 21(2), 232-247. https://doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2024.0139
39. Magliocca, N., Safirova, E., McConnell, V., & Walls, M. (2011). An economic agent-based model of coupled housing and land markets (CHALMS). Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 35(3), 183-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2011.01.002
40. Marshall, J. M. (1976). Moral hazard. The American Economic Review, 66(5), 880-890. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1827499
41. Milan, R., & Singh, S. (2024). Analysing shrinkflation in FMCG industry with special reference to food packaging industry. Research Review International Journal of Multidisciplinary, 9(3), 269-280. https://doi.org/10.31305/rrijm.2024.v09.n03.029
42. Pauly, M. V. (1968). The Economics of moral hazard: Comment. The American Economic Review, 58(3), 531-537. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1813785
43. Payne, C. (2019). Shrinkflation: How many of our products are getting smaller? Retrieved from https://backup.ons.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/01/Shrinkflation-How-many-of-our-products-are-getting-smaller_.pdf Accessed 14.01.2025.
44. Rotemberg, J. J. (2005). Customer anger at price increases, changes in the frequency of price adjustment and monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(4), 829-852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.03.004
45. Scanlon, P. (2024). A model of greedflation. Economics Letters, 234, 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111452
46. Schinckus, C. (2019). Agent-based modelling and economic complexity: A diversified perspective. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 26(2), 170-188. https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-12-2018-0108
47. Singhal, R., & Gupta, A. (2023). Analysis of shrinkflation strategy as a new industrial marketing technique. International Journal of Novel Research and Development, 8(2), 750-754.
48. Stephens, P., Madziak,V., Gerhardt, A., & Cabtafio, J. (2025). Exploring price changes in local food systems compared to mainstream grocery retail in Canada during an era of ‘greedflation’. Food Policy, 130, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102773
49. Taş, H., & Boyacıoğlu, E. Z. (2024). Shrinkflasyon algısının tüketici davranışlarına yansıması. Nişantaşı Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 12(Özel Sayı), 377-398. https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1564415
50. Taylor, S., Charlebois, S., Crowell T., & Cross, B. (2024). The paradox of corporate sustainability: analyzing the moral landscape of Canadian grocers. Frontier in Nutrition, 10, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnut.2023.1284377
51. Tekin, A., & Sökmen Gürçam, Ö. (2019). Davranışsal iktisat ve vergi uyumu arasındaki ilişki üzerine genel bir değerlendirme. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(5), 65-76.
52. Thaler, R. H. (1980). Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1(1), 39–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(80)90051-7
53. Thaler, R. H. (2018). From cashews to nudges: The Evolution of behavioral economics. American Economic Review, 108(6), 1265–1287. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.108.6.1265
54. The Royal Swedish Academy of Science (2002). Foundations of Behavioral and Experimental Economics: Daniel Kahneman and Vernon Smith. Retrieved from https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/advanced-economicsciences2002-1.pdf Accessed 20.01.2025.
55. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297-323.
56. Van Garderen, K. . (1997). Curved exponential models in econometrics. Econometric Theory, 13(6),771-790. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600006253
57. Vermeulen, B., & Pyka, A. (2016). Agent-based modeling for decision making in economics under uncertainty. Economics, 10(1), 1-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2016-6
58. Vinod, H. D. (2022). Greedflation from causal paths between profits and inflation. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=4134413 Accessed 03.01.2025. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4134413
59. Willis, V. (2023). Market research, consumer analysis & recommendations for selected processed vegetables in Oregon. Retrieved from https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/technical_reports/5d86p7201 Accessed 15.01.2025.
60. Yang, S., & Fu, Y. (2025). Interconnectedness among supply chain disruptions, energy crisis, and oil market volatility on economic resilience. Energy Economics, 143, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108290
61. Yergin, H., Günsan, N., & Yiğenoğlu, K. (2021). Real inflation in the context of shrinkflation and skimpflation. Journal of Academic Opinion, 4(1), 1-6.