AB-27 ÜLKELERİNDE FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE GELİR EŞİTSİZLİĞİ: FİNANSAL KUZNETS EĞRİSİ HİPOTEZİ ÜZERİNE PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2009-2022 döneminde Avrupa Birliği’ne üye 27 ülke (AB-27) için finansal gelişme ile gelir eşitsizliği arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyerek Finansal Kuznets Eğrisi (FKC) hipotezinin geçerliliğini test etmektedir. Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak Gini katsayısı, finansal gelişmenin göstergesi olarak özel sektöre verilen kredilerin GSYH’ye oranı ve ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen kişi başına reel GSYH kullanılmıştır. Panel veri setine uygulanan analizlerde, kesit bağımlılığı testleri, birim kök analizleri, panel eşbütünleşme testleri ve uzun dönemli ilişkiyi tahmin etmek üzere AMG (Augmented Mean Group) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışma, AMG tahmincisinin uygulanması yoluyla 2008 küresel kriz sonrası dönemde AB-27 ekonomileri için ülkeye özgü kanıtlar sunarak literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Bulgular, FKC hipotezinin Malta, Portekiz ve Slovenya gibi ülkelerde geçerli olduğunu, yani finansal gelişmenin başlangıçta gelir eşitsizliğini artırdığını ancak belirli bir eşiği aştığında eşitsizliği azalttığını göstermektedir. Öte yandan, Avusturya, Kıbrıs, Çekya, Litvanya, Romanya ve Slovakya’da finansal gelişme ile gelir eşitsizliği arasında U-şekilli bir ilişki olduğu görülmektedir; bu durum FKC hipoteziyle çelişmektedir. Diğer ülkelerde ise anlamlı bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Ayrıca, ekonomik büyümenin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisinin ülkelere göre değiştiği saptanmıştır. Genel olarak bulgular, finansal gelişmenin gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkisinin ülkeye özgü yapısal ve kurumsal özelliklere bağlı olarak değiştiğini göstermekte ve AB-27 genelinde tek tip politika uygulamaları yerine hedeflenmiş finansal kapsayıcılık politikalarına ihtiyaç olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Gelişme
• Gelir Eşitsizliği
• Finansal Kuznet Eğrisi
• Panel Veri Analizi

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN THE EU-27 COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON THE FINANCIAL KUZNETS CURVE HYPOTHESIS

Öz

This study examines the relationship between financial development and income inequality for the 27 member countries of the European Union (EU-27) during the period 2009-2022, thereby testing the validity of the Financial Kuznets Curve (FKC) hypothesis. The dependent variable in the study is the Gini coefficient, the ratio of private sector credit to GDP as an indicator of financial development, and real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth. The analysis applied to the panel data set includes cross-sectional dependence tests, unit root analyses, panel cointegration tests, and the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) method to estimate the long-term relationship. This study contributes to the literature by providing country-specific evidence for the EU-27 economies in the post-2008 crisis period through the application of the AMG estimator. The findings indicate that the FKC hypothesis holds true in countries such as Malta, Portugal, and Slovenia, meaning that financial development initially increases income inequality but reduces it once a certain threshold is crossed. On the other hand, a U-shaped relationship between financial development and income inequality was observed in Austria, Cyprus, the Czechia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia, which contradicts the FKC hypothesis. No significant relationship was found in other countries. Additionally, it was determined that the impact of economic growth on income distribution varies across countries. Overall, the findings show that the impact of financial development on income inequality varies depending on country-specific structural and institutional characteristics, and reveal that targeted financial inclusion policies are needed across the EU-27 rather than uniform policy approaches.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Development
• Income Inequality
• Financial Kuznets Curve
• Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Aghion, P., & Bolton, P. (1997). A theory of trickle-down growth and development. The review of economic studies, 64(2), 151-172.
2. Azam, M., & Raza, S. A. (2018). Financial sector development and income inequality in ASEAN-5 countries: Does financial Kuznets curve exists? Global Business and Economics Review, 20(1), 88-114.
3. Baiardi, D., & Morana, C. (2018). Financial development and income distribution inequality in the euro area. Economic Modelling, 70, 40-55.
4. Banerjee, A. V., & Newman, A. F. (1993). Occupational choice and the process of development. Journal of political economy, 101(2), 274-298.
5. Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2007). Finance, inequality and the poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 27-49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-007-9010-6
6. Bolarinwa, S. T., & Akinlo, A. E. (2021). Is there a nonlinear relationship between financial development and income inequality in Africa? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 24, e00226.
7. Breusch, T.S., & Pagan, A.R. (1980). the lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specifications in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-53
8. Chakroun, M. (2020). Threshold effects in the relationship between financial development and income inequality. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 25(3), 365-387.

9. Claessens, S., & Perotti, E. (2007). Finance and inequality: Channels and evidence. Journal of Comparative Economics, 35(4), 748-773.
10. Clarke, G. R., Xu, L. C., & Zou, H. F. (2006). Finance and income inequality: What do the data tell us? Southern Economic Journal, 72(3), 578–596. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1002/j. 2325- 8012. 2006. tb007 21.x
11. Destek, M. A., Okumuş, İ., & Manga, M. (2017). Türkiye’de finansal gelişim ve gelir dağılımı ilişkisi: Finansal kuznets eğrisi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 18(2), 153-165.
12. Eberhardt M, Bond S (2009) Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator. MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich, Germany
13. Erkan, B., Şentürk, M., Akbaş, Y. E., & Bayat, T. (2011). The ımpact of ınternational crude oil price volatility on unemployment ındicators: Empirical evidence on the case of Turkey. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2).
14. Galor, O. & Zeira, J. (1993). Income distribution and macroeconomics. Review of Economic Studies, 60, 35-52.
15. Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 1), 1076-1107.
16. Honohan, P. (2004). Financial sector policy and the poor: Selected findings and issues (No. 43). World Bank Publications.
17. Jauch, S., & Watzka, S. (2016). Financial development and income inequality: A panel data approach. Empirical Economics, 51(1), 291-314. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0994-2
18. Kar, B. B., & Kar, M. (2019). Finansal gelişme ve gelir eşitsizliği: BRICS ekonomileri için dinamik heterojen bir yaklaşım. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(1), 27-46.
19. Kavya, T. B., & Shijin, S. (2020). Economic development, financial development, and income inequality nexus. Borsa Istanbul Review, 20(1), 80-93.
20. Khatatbeh, I. N., & Moosa, I. A. (2023). Financialisation and income inequality: An investigation of the financial Kuznets curve hypothesis among developed and developing countries. Heliyon, 9(4).
21. Kim, D. H., & Lin, S. C. (2011). Non-linearity in the financial development-income inequality nexus. Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(3), 310-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2011.07.002
22. Kocak, E. (2021). Ekonomik buyume, finansal gelişme ve gelir eşitsizliği: Ampirik bir tahmin. Bankacılar Dergisi, 118, 48–64. https://www.acarindex.com/pdfs/476115
23. Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28. https:// assets. aeaweb. org/ asset- server/ files/ 9438. pdf
24. Li, H., Squire, L., & Zou, H. F. (1998). Explaining international and intertemporal variations in income inequality. The economic journal, 108(446), 26-43.
25. Mushtaq, S., Younsi, M., & Sagheer, Z. (2025). Non-linearity between finance and income inequality: a panel data analysis for EAGLE countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(2), 10136-10163.
26. Nadabo, Y. S., Dakyong, T. G., & Ismail, H. (2024). Financial development and Income inequality in Nigeria: testing the financial Kuznets curve hypothesis. FUDMA Journal of Accounting and Finance Research [FUJAFR], 2(1), 92-105.
27. Nikoloski, Z. (2013). Financial sector development and ınequality: Is there any financial Kuznets curve? Journal of International Development, 25, 897–911. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.2843
28. Ondes, H., & Kızılgöl, Ö. (2024). Financial development and ıncome inequality in newly ındustrialized countries: Does financial kuznets curve exists?. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 1-34.
29. Özdemir, O. (2021). Finansal kuznets eğrisi ve ekonomik küreselleşme ilişkisi üzerine: OECD ülkeleri için gelir eşitsizliği temelli bir analiz. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 17(38), 5271-5303.
30. Park, D., & Shin, K. (2017). Economic growth, financial development, and income inequality. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(12), 2794-2825.
31. Pesaran, M. H. (2021). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. Empirical economics, 60(1), 13-50.
32. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
33. Philippon, T. (2016). The fintech opportunity (No. w22476). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w22476/w22476.pdf
34. Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (2003). The great reversals: The politics of financial development in the twentieth century. Journal of financial economics, 69(1), 5-50.
35. Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American economic review, 100(2), 573-578.
36. Sayar, G., Erdas, M. L., & Destek, G. (2020). The effects of financial development, democracy and human capital on income distribution in developing countries: Does financial Kuznets curve exists? Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 10(2).
37. Seo, M. H., Kim, S., & Kim, Y. J. (2019). Estimation of dynamic panel threshold model using Stata. The Stata Journal, 19(3), 685-697.
38. Seo, M., & Shin, Y. (2016). Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity. Journal of Econometrics, 195, 169–186.
39. Smith, L. V., Leybourne, S., Kim, T., & Newbold, P. (2004). More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to the mean reversion in real exchange rates. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(2), 147-170.
40. Stiglitz, J. E. (2012). The price of inequality: How today's divided society endangers our future. WW Norton & Company. https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce uploads/Joseph_Stiglitz/Price%20of%20Inequality%20for%20Sustainable%20Humanity.pdf. Accessed 12.04.2025
41. Stockhammer, E. (2010). Financialization and the global economy. Political Economy Research Institute Working Paper, 242(40), 1-17.
42. Şahbaz, A., Adıgüzel, U., Bayat, T., & Kayhan, S. (2014). Relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: the case of Romania. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research/Academy of Economic Studies, 48(2), 245-256
43. Topuz, S. G., & Dağdemir, O. (2016). Finansal gelişme ve gelir eşitsizliği: Bir panel veri analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(3), 19–34. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/419300
44. Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect. Journal of applied econometrics, 23(2), 193-233.
45. Westerlund, J., & Edgerton, D. L. (2008). A simple test for cointegration in dependent panels with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 70(5), 665-704.
46. Yenişehirlioğlu, E., Taşar, İ., & Bayat, T. (2020). Tourism revenue and economic growth relation in Turkey: Evidence of symmetrical, asymmetrical and the rolling window regressions. Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 41(2).
47. Zungu, L. T., & Grelying, L. (2021). Financial development and income inequality: a nonlinear econometric analysis of 21 African countries. Economic Research Southern Africa, (No. 853). 1994-2015.