EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİĞİ YÜKSELDİĞİNDE: BORSA İSTANBUL’DAN SEKTÖREL HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI BULGULARI

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’ye özgü ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin (TEPU) Borsa İstanbul'daki sektörel hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkisini, Ocak 2006 – Aralık 2024 dönemine ait aylık verilerle beş sektörel endeks (finans-XUMAL, sanayi-XUSIN, turizm-XTRZM, ulaştırma-XULAS, teknoloji-XUTEK) üzerinden incelemektedir. Literatür ağırlıklı olarak gelişmiş piyasalara ve toplulaştırılmış endekslere odaklanırken, bu çalışma gelişmekte olan bir piyasa için sektörel düzeyde ampirik kanıt sunmakta; analiz, sabit etkiler ve Driscoll-Kraay dirençli standart hatalarla tahmin edilen panel veri yöntemiyle gerçekleştirilmektedir. TEPU’nun sektörel getiriler üzerindeki tek değişkenli etkisi negatif fakat istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Yurt içi makroekonomik kontroller (faiz oranı, döviz kuru, enflasyon) ve küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği (durağan hale getirilmiş fark biçiminde GEPU) modele eklendiğinde, TEPU %5 düzeyinde anlamlı negatif bir etki göstermekte; kontrol değişkenleri arasında döviz kuru değer kaybı en güçlü belirleyici olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Sektör-TEPU etkileşim testi, TEPU etkisinde sektörler arası anlamlı bir farklılaşma bulunmadığını, dolayısıyla belirsizliğin sektöre özgü değil genel/sistemik bir risk faktörü olarak işlediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, politika belirsizliğinin, olumsuz makroekonomik koşullarla birlikte, risk primlerini artırarak ve yatırım beklentilerini zayıflatarak sektörel değerlemeler üzerinde baskı oluşturduğunu göstermektedir. Kısıtlar arasında tek bir belirsizlik göstergesine dayanma ve sınırlı yatay kesit boyutu yer almaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği
• Borsa İstanbul
• Sektörel Getiriler
• Panel Veri Analizi

Destekleyen Kurum

Yok

Etik Beyan

Etik kurul onayına ve/veya yasal/özel izne ihtiyaç duymayan bu çalışma, araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygundur.

Teşekkür

Yok

WHEN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY RISES: SECTORAL STOCK MARKET EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL

Öz

This study examines the impact of Türkiye-specific economic policy uncertainty (TEPU) on sectoral stock returns in Borsa Istanbul, using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2024 across five sector indices: financial (XUMAL), industrial (XUSIN), tourism (XTRZM), transportation (XULAS), and technology (XUTEK). While existing literature largely focuses on developed markets and aggregate indices, this study contributes sector-level evidence from an emerging market using a panel data framework estimated with fixed effects and Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. The univariate effect of TEPU on sectoral returns is negative but statistically insignificant. Once domestic macroeconomic controls (interest rate, exchange rate, inflation) and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU, specified in stationary first-differenced form) are included, TEPU exerts a negative effect significant at the 5% level, with exchange rate depreciation the strongest determinant among the controls. Sector-TEPU interaction test finds no significant sectoral heterogeneity in TEPU’s effect, indicating that policy uncertainty operates as a broadly systemic rather than sector-specific risk factor. The findings suggest that policy uncertainty, with unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, exerts downward pressure on sectoral valuations through higher risk premiums, weaker investment expectations, and rising financing costs. Limitations include reliance on a single domestic uncertainty proxy and a limited cross-sectional dimension constraining power to detect sectoral heterogeneity.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Policy Uncertainty
• Borsa Istanbul
• Sectoral Stock Returns
• Panel Data Analysis

Destekleyen Kurum

None

Etik Beyan

This study which does not require ethics committee approval and/or legal/specific permission complies with the research and publication ethics.

Teşekkür

None

Kaynakça

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