KAZAKHSTAN'S DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE: A DYNAMIC PROJECTION OF AGING AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

Öz

Kazakhstan’s relatively young and healthy demographic profile masks underlying pressures arising from population aging and declining fertility. This study provides an open, data-driven assessment of the country’s medium- and long-term demographic trajectory through a novel dynamic microsimulation framework. To isolate intrinsic demographic dynamics, the model assumes no migration and replaces exogenous age-specific schedules with endogenous feedback mechanisms in which births and deaths respond directly to changes in the population’s age structure. The results indicate that population growth will continue for approximately 25–36 years, reaching a peak of around 25 million before entering a sustained period of decline. At the same time, population aging accelerates, with the average age projected to increase from just over 30 years to between 48 and 58 years within a century. The analysis identifies fertility, rather than mortality, as the primary determinant of long-run demographic outcomes. From an economic perspective, these trends imply a gradual contraction of the working-age population, rising dependency ratios, and growing structural pressure on labor markets. As large working-age cohorts transition into retirement, the balance between contributors and beneficiaries is expected to deteriorate, increasing pressure on social security and pension systems. Although life expectancy is projected to improve, gains at older ages remain sensitive to mortality conditions. The findings suggest that maintaining a family-oriented policy framework supported by financial incentives and childcare assistance will be critical for moderating fertility decline, sustaining future labor supply, and preserving the long-term sustainability of social security systems.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Population Projection
• Fertility Decline
• Microsimulations
• Social Security
• Labor Markets

Destekleyen Kurum

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University Scientific Research Projects (BAP) Coordination Office

Proje Numarası

SBA-2025-5217

Etik Beyan

Ethics Declaration (Ethics Committee Approval is not required for this study) Title of the Work: Kazakhstan's Demographic Future: A Dynamic Projection of Aging and Economic Implications Type of Work: Research Article With respect to the work whose information is provided above, I declare the following: This study does not contain any quantitative or qualitative field research (survey, interview, focus group study, experiment, controlled observation, etc.). The study consists entirely of a socioeconomic analysis, theoretical assessment, and literature review conducted on the basis of secondary sources (academic publications, official statistics, open-access datasets, licensed databases). No living participants (human or animal) were used in the study, no personal or sensitive data were collected, and no practice that could pose any ethical risk was carried out. Therefore, in accordance with the Directive on Scientific Research and Publication Ethics of Higher Education Institutions and relevant legislation, there is no requirement to obtain an Ethics Committee Approval Certificate for this study. I undertake that this declaration is true and accept all legal and administrative liability that may arise in the event of any contrary finding. Date: 8 / 6 / 2026 Can BEKAROĞLU, Ömer Faruk KARAMAN

Teşekkür

This work was supported by the Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University Scientific Research Projects (BAP) Coordination Office [project number SBA-2025-5217].

KAZAKİSTAN’IN DEMOGRAFİK GELECEĞİ: YAŞLANMANIN DİNAMİK PROJEKSİYONU VE EKONOMİK ÇIKARIMLARI

Öz

Kazakistan’ın görece genç ve sağlıklı demografik yapısı, nüfus yaşlanması ve doğurganlıktaki düşüşten kaynaklanan temel baskıları gizlemektedir. Bu çalışma, özgün bir dinamik mikrosimülasyon modeli geliştirerek ülkenin orta ve uzun vadeli demografik seyrine ilişkin açık ve veriye dayalı bir değerlendirme sunmaktadır. İçsel demografik dinamikleri izole edebilmek amacıyla model göçün olmadığı varsayımına dayanmakta ve dışsal yaşa özgü çizelgeler yerine doğum ve ölümlerin değişen yaş yapısına doğrudan tepki verdiği içsel geri besleme mekanizmalarını kullanmaktadır. Bulgular, nüfus artışının yaklaşık 25–36 yıl daha devam ederek 25 milyon civarında zirve yapacağını ve sonrasında kalıcı bir düşüş sürecine gireceğini göstermektedir. Buna paralel olarak nüfus yaşlanması hızlanmakta; ortalama yaşın bir yüzyıl içinde 30 yaşın biraz üzerindeki seviyelerden 48–58 yaş aralığına yükselmesi beklenmektedir. Analiz, uzun dönemli sonuçların temel belirleyicisinin ölüm oranlarından ziyade doğurganlık olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ekonomik açıdan bu eğilimler, çalışma çağındaki nüfusun kademeli olarak daralmasına, bağımlılık oranlarının yükselmesine ve emek piyasaları üzerinde artan yapısal baskılara işaret etmektedir. Mevcut çalışan kuşakların emeklilik yaşlarına ulaşmasıyla birlikte, katkı sağlayanlar ile yararlanıcılar arasındaki dengenin bozulması ve sosyal güvenlik ile emeklilik sistemleri üzerindeki mali baskıların artması beklenmektedir. Yaşam beklentisinin yükselmesi öngörülse de ileri yaşlardaki kazanımlar kırılganlığını korumaktadır. Bulgular, doğurganlıktaki düşüşü yavaşlatmak, gelecekteki işgücü arzını desteklemek ve sosyal güvenlik sistemlerinin sürdürülebilirliğini korumak için mali teşvikler ve çocuk bakım destekleriyle güçlendirilmiş aile dostu politikaların önemine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Nüfus Projeksiyonu
• Doğum Oranları
• Mikrosimülasyon
• Sosyal Güvenlik
• Emek Piyasaları

Destekleyen Kurum

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Bağımsız Araştırma Projeleri (BAP) Koordinasyon Birimi

Proje Numarası

SBA-2025-5217

Etik Beyan

Etik Beyan (Bu çalışma için Etik Kurul Onayı gerekmemektedir) Çalışmanın Başlığı: Kazakistan'ın Demografik Geleceği: Yaşlanma ve Ekonomik Etkilerin Dinamik Bir Projeksiyonu Çalışma Türü: Araştırma Makalesi Yukarıda bilgileri verilen eser ile ilgili olarak aşağıdaki hususları beyan ederim: Bu çalışma, nicel veya nitel bir saha araştırması (anket, mülakat, odak grup çalışması, deney, kontrollü gözlem vb.) içermemektedir. Çalışma, tamamen ikincil kaynaklara (akademik yayınlar, resmi istatistikler, açık erişimli veri setleri, lisanslı veritabanları) dayalı olarak gerçekleştirilmiş sosyoekonomik bir analiz, teorik bir değerlendirme ve literatür taraması içermektedir. Çalışmada herhangi bir canlı katılımcı (insan veya hayvan) kullanılmamış, kişisel veya hassas veri toplanmamış ve herhangi bir etik risk oluşturabilecek bir uygulama yapılmamıştır. Bu nedenle, Yükseköğretim Kurumları Bilimsel Araştırma ve Yayın Etiği Yönergesi ve ilgili mevzuat uyarınca, bu çalışma için Etik Kurul Onay Belgesi alınması gerekliliği bulunmamaktadır. Bu beyanımın doğru olduğunu taahhüt eder, aksinin tespiti halinde doğabilecek her türlü hukuki ve idari sorumluluğu kabul ederim. Tarih: 8/6/2026 Can BEKAROĞLU, Ömer Faruk KARAMAN

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Bağımsız Araştırma Projeleri (BAP) Koordinasyon Birimi tarafından SBA-2025-5217 numaralı proje kapsamında desteklenmiştir.

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