ENFLASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN DİNAMİK PANEL EŞİK ETKİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada Hansen 1999 tarafından geliştirilen panel eşik değer analizi kullanılarak 27 OECD ülkesinde 2000-2014 dönemi için enflasyon ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin doğrusal olup olmadığının tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, enflasyon ile ekonomik büyüme arasında doğrusal bir ilişki olmadığına ve enflasyon için tek eşik değer bulunduğuna dair güçlü kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Bu sonuç, enflasyon oranlarına bağlı olarak ekonomik büyümenin farklı şekillerde etkilenebileceğini göstermektedir. Analizde incelenen ülke grubu için enflasyon oranı %3,286 seviyesinin üzerine çıktığında; enflasyon, ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilerken bu seviyenin altında ise etki tersine dönmektedir. Bu yüzden OECD ülkelerinde yüksek enflasyona neden olabilecek politikalardan vazgeçilmeli ve politika yapıcıların öncelikli hedefi fiyat istikrarı olmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon,Ekonomik Büyüme,Panel Eşik Regresyon Analizi

INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: DYNAMIC PANEL THRESHOLD EFFECT ANALYSIS FOR OECD COUNTRIES

Abstract

This study aims at investigating whether the relationship between inflation and economic growth is linear or not for the period 2000-2014 in 27 OECD countries. By following the panel threshold analysis proposed by Hansen 1999 , one may claim that there is a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth with a single threshold value of inflation. This finding implies that the economic growth effect of inflation is conditioned by the level of inflation. Effectively, we show that inflation exerts a positive influence on economic growth when inflation is below 3.286%, while inflation negatively affect economic growth for inflation rate above 3.286%. The main implication of this study is that policy makers need to pursue monetary policy consistent with lower and more stable inflation

Keywords

• Inflation,Economic Growth,Panel Threshold Regression Analysis

Kaynakça

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