DEBT DEFLATION: THE EVOLUTION OF THEORY AND AN EVALUATION FOR EUROPE

Abstract

Debt deflation which includes over-indebtedness and deflation vicious circle means that over-indebtedness in private sector causes asset sales, monetary contraction and deterioration in financial sector and so demand shrinking and aggravates deflation process. Debt deflation is an outcome of expansion, globalization and deregulation of financial system. As a result of increasing deregulation of financial system, increasing number of financial crises started to increase the possibility of debt deflation process. Debt deflation first theorized during the Great Depression of 1929. But it has attracted attention recently in company with the crises. And one of these crises is European Debt Crisis which contains debt deflation dynamics nowadays. The aim of this study is to evaluate the debt deflation, worries about it and its possibility in the Euro Area peripheral countries which has been getting hit by European Debt Crisis. Consequently, it can be said that in these countries there has been occurring some debt deflation dynamics but they are not strong enough. So, there isn’t a clear and strong debt deflation process nowadays. But, in order to prevent debt deflation process in these countries, it is essential to ease the consolidation measures and to continue expansionary and restorative monetary policies

Keywords

• Debt Deflation,European Debt Crisis,Great Depression,Fisher

BORÇ DEFLASYONU: TEORİNİN GELİŞİMİ VE AVRUPA’DA BORÇ DEFLASYONUNA İLİŞKİN DEĞERLENDİRMELER

Öz

Aşırı borçluluk ve deflasyon döngüsünü ele alan borç deflasyonu, aşırı özel sektör borçluluğunun, varlık satışı ve parasal daralmaya yol açarak finansal sistemin işleyişini bozması, bu yolla talebi azaltması ve deflasyonu pekiştirmesidir. Borç deflasyonu, finansal sistemin büyümesi, globalleşmesi ve serbestleşmesinin bir sonucudur. Finansal sistemin serbestleşmesiyle artan finansal krizler, borç deflasyonu olasılığını da arttırmaya başlamıştır. Borç deflasyonu ilk olarak 1929 krizinde ortaya atılmış ancak asıl ilgiyi son dönemlerde artan krizlerle birlikte üzerine çekmiştir. Bu krizlerden güncelliğini koruyan Avrupa borç krizi ise sahip olduğu özelliklerle borç deflasyonuna yol açabilecek yapıya sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, son dönemde Avrupa borç kriziyle sarsılan Avro Bölgesi çevre ülkelerinde artan borç deflasyonu kaygılarını değerlendirmek ve Avro Bölgesi çevre ülkelerinde borç deflasyonu olgusu ve olasılığı araştırmaktır. Sonuç olarak, bu ülkelerde borç deflasyonu belirtileri görülmekle birlikte henüz tam anlamıyla borç deflasyonunun yaşanmadığı söylenebilir. Ancak, bu ülkelerin olası bir borç deflasyonunu önleyebilmesi için, genişletici ve onarıcı para politikalarına devam etmesi ve konsolidasyonları azaltması zorunlu görünmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Borç Deflasyonu,Avrupa Borç Krizi,Büyük Buhran,Fisher

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