THE EFFECTS OF THE BUDGET DEFICITS ON THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE: AN APPLICATION FOR TURKISH ECONOMY

Öz

In this study, the effects of public financial discipline on real exchange rate, which is one of the basic indicators of external economic balance has been examined. The results of the bound tests conducted for Turkish economy between January, 1994 and December, 2012 show that inflation and increase in budget deficit lead to a rise in real exchange rate. The tests also reveal a highly significant relationship between general price rates and real exchange rates

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Budget Deficits,Real Exchange Rate,Bound Test Approach

BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ REEL DÖVİZ KURU ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRK EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Öz

Bu çalışmada kamu malî disiplininin dış ekonomik dengenin temel göstergelerinden olan reel döviz kuru üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektedir. Türk ekonomisinde 1994:01-2012:12 dönemi için ARDL sınır testi kullanılarak yapılan analizlerin sonuçları, enflasyonun ve bütçe açıklarındaki artışın reel döviz kurunun yükselmesine neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca analizler sonucunda fiyatlar genel seviyesinin reel döviz kurunu yüksek seviyede etkilediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bütçe Açıkları,Reel Döviz Kuru,Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Kaynakça

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