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TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNİN BİLEŞENLERİNİN AŞIRI KREDİ GENİŞLEMELERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2020, , 219 - 238, 30.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.756831

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinin 2007:01 – 2019:05 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanılarak,
net ve brüt sermaye girişlerinin ve bunların alt bileşenlerinin, aşırı kredi genişlemesi olasılığı üzerindeki
etkileri incelenmektedir. Logit model tahminleri, net ve brüt doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerindeki
artışların, aşırı kredi genişlemesi olasılığını azalttığını; net ve brüt portföy girişleri ile net ve brüt diğer
yatırım girişlerindeki artışların ise, aşırı kredi genişlemesi olasılığını artırdığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca
bankacılık kesimine dönük brüt diğer yatırım girişlerindeki artışlar ile hem bankacılık kesimine hem
de (banka dışı) diğer kesimlere yönelik brüt portföy borç girişlerindeki artışlar, aşırı kredi genişlemesi
olasılığı üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etki yaratmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Alessi, L., & Detken, C. (2018). Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage. Journal of Financial Stability, 35, 215–225.
  • Amri P.D., Richey G.M., & Willett T.D. (2016). Capital surges and credit booms: How tight is the relationship. OpenEconomies Review, 27(4), 637–670.
  • Arena, M., Bouza, S., Dabla-Norris, E., Gerling, K., & Njie, L. (2015). Credit booms and macroeconomic dynamics: Stylized facts and lessons for low-income countries. IMF Working Paper, 15/11.
  • Baskaya, Y.S., Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, S., Peydro, J.L., & Ulu, M.F. (2017). Capital flows and the international credit channel. Journal of International Economics, 108, S15–S22.
  • Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In J. Taylor, M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics (pp.1341-1393), Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
  • Binici, M., & Köksal, B. (2012). Türkiye’de aşırı kredi genişlemeleri ve belirleyicileri. MPRA Paper, No. 38032.
  • Calderón, C., & Kubota, M. (2012). Gross inflows gone wild: Gross capital inflows, credit booms and crises. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 6270.
  • Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D., Laeven, L., & Tong, H. (2016). Credit booms and macrofinancial stability. Economic Policy, 31(86), 299–357
  • Demirguc–Kunt, A., & Detragiache, E. (1998). Financial liberalization and financial fragility. IMF Working Paper, No 98/83.
  • Elekdag, S., & Wu, Y (2013). Rapid credit growth in emerging markets: Boon or boom-bust? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 49(5), 45–62.
  • Forbes, K.J., & Warnock, F.E. (2012). Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), 235–251.
  • Forbes, K.J., & Warnock, F.E. (2014) Debt- and equity-led capital flow episodes. In D.M. Fuentes, C.E. Raddatz, C.M. Reinhart (Eds.), Capital mobility and monetary policy (pp. 291-322), Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile.
  • Furceri, D., Guichard, S., & Rusticelli, E. (2012). The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 23(3), 325–344.
  • Ghosh, A.R., & Qureshi, M.S. (2016). Capital inflow surges and consequences. ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 585.
  • Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, S., Ulu, M.F., & Baskaya, Y.S. (2017). International spillovers and local credit cycles. NBER Working Paper, No. 23149.
  • Gourinchas, P.O., Valdes, R., & Landerretche, O. (2001). Lending booms: Latin America and the World. NBER Working Paper, No.8249.
  • Gourinchas, P.O., & Obstfeld, M. (2012). Stories of the twentieth century for the twenty-first. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4, 226–265.
  • Guarin, A., Gonzalez, A., Skandalis, D., & Sanchez, D. (2014). An early warning model for predicting credit booms using macroeconomic aggregates. Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 32(73), 77- 86. Hernandez, L., & Landerretche, O. (2002). Capital inflows, credit booms and macroeconomic vulnerability: The cross-country experience. In L. Hernandez, K. Schmidth-Hebbel (Eds.), Banking financial integration and international crises (pp.199-233), Santiago, Chile, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Igan, D., & Tan, Z. (2015). Capital inflows, credit growth, and financial systems. IMF Working Paper, No. 15/193.
  • Jorda, O., Schularick, M., & Taylor, A.M. (2011). Financial crises, credit booms, and external imbalances: 140 years of lessons. IMF Economic Review, 59, 340–78.
  • Kaminsky, G., & Reinhart, C.M. (1999). The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems. American Economic Review, 89(3), 473–500.
  • Kara, H. (2012). Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası. TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, No:12/17.
  • Kiyotaki, N., & Moore, J. (1997). Credit cycles. Journal of Political Economy, 105(2), 211-248.
  • Lane, P.R., & McQuade, P. (2014). Domestic credit growth and international capital flows. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116(1), 218–252.
  • Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: Theory and evidence. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1, 865– 934.
  • Mendoza E.G., & Terrones, M.E. (2008). An anatomy of credit booms: Evidence from macro aggregates and micro data. NBER Working Paper, No. 14049.
  • Mendoza E.G., & Terrones M.E. (2012). An anatomy of credit booms and their demise. NBER Working Paper, No.18379.
  • Meng, C., & Gonzalez, R.L. (2017). Credit booms in developing countries: Are they different from those in advanced and emerging market countries? Open Economies Review, 28, 547–579.
  • OECD (2018). Measurement and identification of capital ınflow surges. Technical note.
  • Orhangazi, Ö. (2014). Capital flows and credit expansions in Turkey. Review of Radical Political Economics, 46(4), 509–516.
  • Özatay, F. (2014). Turkey’s distressing dance with capital flows. Tepav Report, No.2014/07.
  • Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2012). Credit booms gone bust: Monetary policy, leverage cycles, and financial crises. 1870–2008, American Economic Review, 102(2), 1029–1061.
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Toplam 34 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Cemil Varlık Bu kişi benim 0000-0001-9977-2876

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 1 Aralık 2019
Kabul Tarihi 17 Şubat 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020

Kaynak Göster

APA Varlık, C. (2020). TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNİN BİLEŞENLERİNİN AŞIRI KREDİ GENİŞLEMELERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 16(2), 219-238. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.756831