Finansal Başarısızlık ve İflası Etkileyen Faktörlerin Genelleştirilmiş Sıralı Logit Modeli ile Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 2017 yılı içinde BİST (Borsa İstanbul)’ te kote edilen 139 tane imalat sanayi şirketine ait finansal oranlar kullanılmış, finansal başarısızlık ve iflasa yol açan faktörler genelleştirilmiş sıralı logit modeli ile belirlenmiştir. Altman-Z skor yöntemi sayesinde, bağımlı değişkenin sıralı düzeyleri ölçeklendirilmiştir. Bu nedenle erken uyarı sistemi gibi şirketleri uyarabilen ve ortaya çıkabilecek finansal başarısızlığı tahmin edebilen bir model önerilmiştir. Bağımsız değişkenler ise, şirketlerin finansal ve mali tablolarından alınan finansal oranlardan elde edilmiştir. Tahminlenen sıralı logit modeli paralellik varsayımını ihlal ettiğinden dolayı, bağımlı değişkenin sıralı yapısı dikkate alınarak, paralellik varsayımını rahatlatan bir model olan genelleştirilmiş sıralı logit modeli ile analiz edilmiş ve modelin marjinal etkilerine göre yorumlamalar yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, faaliyet kâr marjı, aktif devir hızı, net kâr marjı, asit-test oranlarında meydana gelecek bir artış şirketin güvenli bölgede olma olasılığını arttırmaktadır. Aynı zamanda, finansal kaldıraç oranında meydana gelecek bir artışta şirketin güvenli bölgede olma olasılığını azaltmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Altman-Z Skor Yöntemi
• Finansal Başarısızlık ve İflas
• Genelleştirilmiş Sıralı Logit Modeli

ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT FINANCIAL FAILURE AND BANKRUPTCY WITH GENERALIZED ORDERED LOGIT MODEL

Abstract

In the present study, financial ratios that belong to 139 manufacturing companies that have been quoted on BIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange) during 2017 have been used, the factors that lead to financial failure and bankruptcy have been determined with the generalized ordered logit model. By courtesy of the Altman-Z score model, ordinal levels of the dependent variable have been scaled. Thus, a model that could warn companies like an early warning system and forecast potential financial failure have been suggested. Independent variables have been obtained from the financial ratios which had been taken from the financial statements of the companies. As the estimated ordered logit model has violated the parallel lines assumption, by taking the ordinal nature of the variable dependent into account it has been analyzed with a generalized ordered logit model which relaxes the parallel lines assumption and has been interpreted according to the marginal effects of the model. According to analysis results, an increase in ratios of operating profit margin, asset turnover, net profit margin, and acid-test increases the probability of the company being in a safe zone. Meanwhile, an increase in the financial leverage ratio decreases that probability.

Keywords

• Altman-Z Score
• Financial Failure and Bankruptcy
• Generalized Ordered Logit Models

Kaynakça

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