TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON VE BANKA KREDİLERİNİN LEASING İŞLEMLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ASİMETRİK ETKİSİ: NARDL MODELİ UYGULAMASI

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı kaynak temininde banka kredilerinin ağırlıkta olduğu Türkiye ekonomisinde, enflasyon beklentisi ve banka kredilerindeki değişimin leasing işlemlerini öne çıkarıp çıkarmadığının belirlenmesidir. Ayrıca, leasing işlemleri ve banka kredileri arasındaki ilişkinin ikame edici ya da tamamlayıcı olma özelliği de araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçlarla, enflasyon beklentisi ve banka kredilerinin leasing işlem hacmi üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi doğrusal olmayan ARDL (NARDL) eşbütünleşme yöntemi ile araştırılmıştır. 2013Ç1 – 2019Ç3 döneminin incelendiği çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar şunlardır: Birincisi, incelenen dönemde Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentisindeki düşüşün leasing işlem hacmi üzerindeki etkisi, enflasyon beklentisindeki artışa göre daha büyüktür; yani asimetrik etki vardır. İkincisi, banka kredileri ile leasing işlemleri arasında tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Leasing
• Enflasyon Beklentileri
• Banka Kredileri
• Asimetrik ARDL

THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND BANK LOANS ON THE LEASING TRANSACTIONS IN TURKEY: AN APPLICATION OF THE NARDL MODEL

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine whether the change in inflation expectations and bank loans make leasing transactions more important in the Turkish economy, where bank loans are heavily weighted in funding. Furthermore, there are also investigated in the relationships substitutability and complementarity between leasing and bank loans. For these purposes, the asymmetric effect of inflation expectations and bank loans on leasing transaction volume are investigated by the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) cointegration method. The results of the study, which examined the period 2013Q1-2019Q3, are as follows: Firstly, in Turkey in the period under review, the impact of the decline in inflation expectations on leasing volume is greater than the increase in inflation expectations; so, there is an asymmetric effect.The secondly, the findings suggest that the relationships between leasing and bank loans are complements instead of substitutes.

Keywords

• Leasing
• Inflation Expectations
• Bank Loans
• Non-Linear ARDL

Kaynakça

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