İHRACAT VE İTHALAT İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN BÖLGESEL VERİLER İLE PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Öz

İhracatın, sadece mutlak değer olarak artırılması ve içerdiği katma değere odaklanılmaması, ithalata bağımlı ihracat sorunu olan bir ülkede, ithalat artışını beraberinde getirmekten başka bir sonuç vermeyecektir. Türkiye bu sorunu yaşayan en önemli örneklerden bir tanesidir. Ulusal hedefin başarısı, bölgesel ve yerel ticaret stratejilerinin performansına bağlıdır. Bu çalışma, ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini analiz ederek ihracatın Türkiye’nin hangi bölgelerinde ithalata bağımlı olduğunu ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Bilinen kadarıyla bu bölgesel verileri kullanan ilk çalışmadır. Nedensellik ilişkisini analiz etmek için Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse (2011) panel Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Analiz, Türkiye'nin bölgeleri için Ocak 2002 ile Aralık 2019 arasındaki dönemi kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bireysel sonuçlar, altı bölgenin çift yönlü nedenselliğe sahip olduğunu, dört bölgen-in ise ihracat ve ithalat arasında tek yönlü nedenselliğe sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Panel sonuçları ise, ihracat ve ithalat arasında iki yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat
• ithalat
• panel nedensellik analizi
• bölgesel veri

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS RELATION: PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS WITH REGIONAL DATA FOR TURKEY

Öz

Aiming to increase exports only as absolute value and not focusing on value added will not result in any other than bringing the increase in imports in a country where exports depend on imports. Turkey is one of the most important examples that are experiencing this problem. The success of the national target depends on the performance of regional and local trade strategies. This study aims to reveal in which regions export is dependent on imports by analyzing the causality relationship between exports and imports. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study using regional data. In order to analyze the causality relations, Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse (2011) panel Granger causality test is employed. The analysis is conducted with using monthly data covering the period from January 2002 to December 2019 for regions of Turkey. Individual results have showed that six regions had bidirectional causality while four regions had unidirectional causality between exports and imports. As for panel results, it has showed that there are bidirectional causality between exports and imports.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exports
• Imports
• Panel Causality Analysis
• Regional data

Kaynakça

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