BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 8, 45 - 54, 01.12.2008

Cengiz Aktaş Veysel Yılmaz

Öz

Consumption of electricity has been known in many countries to be correlated with economic activities. The reasons for increase of electricity demand are higher living standards and industrialization. Like in other developing countries, in Turkey, the demand for energy and electricity is growing rapidly due to social and economic developments and increase of the population of the country. In this paper, the Granger causality between electricity consumption EC and Gross National Product GNP is examined for Turkey using annual data covering the period 1970-2004. As economic growth and electricity consumption variables used in empirical analysis have same order of integration I 1 , Granger causality test is employed. In this study it was found that bidirectional causal relationship between electricity consumption and GNP in the short-run, and unidirectional causality running from GNP to electricity consumption exists in the long-run

Anahtar Kelimeler

Electricity Consumption Economic Growth Causality Cointegration

Kaynakça

  • Adjaye, John A. (2000), “The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices And Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence From Asian Developing Countries”, Energy Economics, No. 22, pp. 615-625.
  • Akarca, Ali T. and Thomas V. Long (1980), “On The Relationship Between Energy And GNP: A Re-Examination”, Journal of Energy and Development, No. 5, pp. 326-331.
  • Chang, Tsangyao, Wenshwo Fang and Li-Fang Wen (2001), “Energy Consumption, Employment, Output And Temporal Causality: Evidence From Taivan Based On Cointegration And Error-Correction Modelling Techniques”, Applied Economics, No. 33, pp. 1045- 1056.
  • Dickey, David A., Dennis W. Jansen and Daniel L. Thornton (1991), “A Primer On Cointegration With An Application To Money And Income”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, pp. 58–78.
  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, No. 74, pp. 427-431.
  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Econometrica, No. 49, pp. 1057-1072.
  • Dua, Pami and B.L. Pandit (2002), “Interest Rate Determination In India:Domestic And External Factors”, Journal of Policy Modeling, No. 24, pp. 853–875.
  • Engle, Robert F. and Clive W. J. Granger (1987), “Cointegration And Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, And Testing”, Econometrica, No. 55, pp. 251–276.
  • Erol, Umit and Eden S.H. Yu (1987), “Time Series Analysis Of The Causal Relationships Between US Energy And Employment”, Resources Energy, No.9, pp. 75-89.
  • Granger, Clive W.J., (1981), “Some Properties Of Time Series Data And Their Use In Econometric Model Specification”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 15, No.1, pp. 121– 130.
  • Granger, Clive W.J. (1983), “Co-Integrated Variables And Error-Correcting Models”, Economics Department Discussion Paper, University of California, San Diego, pp. 83– 113.
  • Granger, Clive W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments In A Concept Of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, No. 39, pp. 199– 211.
  • Granger, Clive W.J. and Paul Newbold (1974), “Spurious Regressions In Econometrics”, Journal Econometrics, No. 2, pp. 111-120.
  • Ghosh, Sajal (2002), “Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth In India”, Energy Policy, No. 30, pp. 125–129.
  • Johansen, Soren (1991), “Estimation And Hypothesis Testing Of Cointegration Vectors In Gaussian Vector Autoregression Models”, Econometrica, No. 59, pp. 1551–1580.
  • Johansen, Soren (1995) Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
  • Jumbe, Charles B.L. (2004), “Cointegration And Causality Between Electricity Consumption And GDP: Empirical Evidence From Malawi”, Energy Economics, No. 26, pp 61-68.
  • Kraft, J. and Kraft, A. (1978), “On The Relationship Between Energy And GNP”, Journal of Energy and Development, No. 3, pp. 401-403.
  • Masih, Abul M. M. and Rumi Masih (1996), “Energy Consumption, Real Income And Temporal Causality: Results From A Multi-Country Study Based On Cointegration And Error-Correction Modelling Techniques”, Energy Economics, No. 18, pp. 165-183
  • Mehrara, Mohsen (2007), “Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries”, Energy Policy, No. 35, pp. 2939-2945.
  • Mozumder, Pallab and Archla Marathe (2007), “Causality Relationship Between Electricity Consumption And GDP In Bangladesh”, Energy Policy, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 395-402.
  • Nelson, Charles R. and Charles I. Plosser (1982), “Trends And Random Walks In Macroeconomic Time Series-Some Evidence And Implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics, No. 10, pp. 139-162.
  • Ozturk, Harun Kemal, Ahmet Yilanci and Oner Atalay (2007), “Past, Present And Future Status Of Electricity In Turkey And The Share Of Energy Sources”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, No. 11, pp. 183–209.
  • Shiu, Alice L. and Le Lam Pun (2004), “Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth In China”, Energy Policy, No. 32, pp. 47-54.
  • Yu, Eden S.H. and Been Kwei Hwang (1984), “The Relationship Between Energy And GNP: Further Results”, Energy Economics, No. 6, pp. 186-190.
  • Yu, Eden S.H. and Je-Young Choi (1985), “The Causal Relationship Between Energy And GNP: An International Comparison”, Journal of Energy and Development, No. 10, pp. 249-272.
  • Zou, Gaolu and K.W. Chau (2006), “Short-and Long-run Effects Between Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in China”, Energy Policy, No. 34, pp. 3644-3655.

TÜRKİYE’DE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDA NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Yıl 2008, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 8, 45 - 54, 01.12.2008

Cengiz Aktaş Veysel Yılmaz

Öz

Consumption of electricity has been known in many countries to be correlated with economic activities. The reasons for increase of electricity demand are higher living standards and industrialization. Like in other developing countries, in Turkey, the demand for energy and electricity is growing rapidly due to social and economic developments and increase of the population of the country. In this paper, the Granger causality between electricity consumption EC and Gross National Product GNP is examined for Turkey using annual data covering the period 1970-2004. As economic growth and electricity consumption variables used in empirical analysis have same order of integration I 1 , Granger causality test is employed. In this study it was found that bidirectional causal relationship between electricity consumption and GNP in the short-run, and unidirectional causality running from GNP to electricity consumption exists in the long-run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Elektrik Tüketimi Ekonomik Büyüme Nedensellik Eşbütünleşme

Kaynakça

  • Adjaye, John A. (2000), “The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices And Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence From Asian Developing Countries”, Energy Economics, No. 22, pp. 615-625.
  • Akarca, Ali T. and Thomas V. Long (1980), “On The Relationship Between Energy And GNP: A Re-Examination”, Journal of Energy and Development, No. 5, pp. 326-331.
  • Chang, Tsangyao, Wenshwo Fang and Li-Fang Wen (2001), “Energy Consumption, Employment, Output And Temporal Causality: Evidence From Taivan Based On Cointegration And Error-Correction Modelling Techniques”, Applied Economics, No. 33, pp. 1045- 1056.
  • Dickey, David A., Dennis W. Jansen and Daniel L. Thornton (1991), “A Primer On Cointegration With An Application To Money And Income”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, pp. 58–78.
  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, No. 74, pp. 427-431.
  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Econometrica, No. 49, pp. 1057-1072.
  • Dua, Pami and B.L. Pandit (2002), “Interest Rate Determination In India:Domestic And External Factors”, Journal of Policy Modeling, No. 24, pp. 853–875.
  • Engle, Robert F. and Clive W. J. Granger (1987), “Cointegration And Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, And Testing”, Econometrica, No. 55, pp. 251–276.
  • Erol, Umit and Eden S.H. Yu (1987), “Time Series Analysis Of The Causal Relationships Between US Energy And Employment”, Resources Energy, No.9, pp. 75-89.
  • Granger, Clive W.J., (1981), “Some Properties Of Time Series Data And Their Use In Econometric Model Specification”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 15, No.1, pp. 121– 130.
  • Granger, Clive W.J. (1983), “Co-Integrated Variables And Error-Correcting Models”, Economics Department Discussion Paper, University of California, San Diego, pp. 83– 113.
  • Granger, Clive W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments In A Concept Of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, No. 39, pp. 199– 211.
  • Granger, Clive W.J. and Paul Newbold (1974), “Spurious Regressions In Econometrics”, Journal Econometrics, No. 2, pp. 111-120.
  • Ghosh, Sajal (2002), “Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth In India”, Energy Policy, No. 30, pp. 125–129.
  • Johansen, Soren (1991), “Estimation And Hypothesis Testing Of Cointegration Vectors In Gaussian Vector Autoregression Models”, Econometrica, No. 59, pp. 1551–1580.
  • Johansen, Soren (1995) Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
  • Jumbe, Charles B.L. (2004), “Cointegration And Causality Between Electricity Consumption And GDP: Empirical Evidence From Malawi”, Energy Economics, No. 26, pp 61-68.
  • Kraft, J. and Kraft, A. (1978), “On The Relationship Between Energy And GNP”, Journal of Energy and Development, No. 3, pp. 401-403.
  • Masih, Abul M. M. and Rumi Masih (1996), “Energy Consumption, Real Income And Temporal Causality: Results From A Multi-Country Study Based On Cointegration And Error-Correction Modelling Techniques”, Energy Economics, No. 18, pp. 165-183
  • Mehrara, Mohsen (2007), “Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries”, Energy Policy, No. 35, pp. 2939-2945.
  • Mozumder, Pallab and Archla Marathe (2007), “Causality Relationship Between Electricity Consumption And GDP In Bangladesh”, Energy Policy, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 395-402.
  • Nelson, Charles R. and Charles I. Plosser (1982), “Trends And Random Walks In Macroeconomic Time Series-Some Evidence And Implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics, No. 10, pp. 139-162.
  • Ozturk, Harun Kemal, Ahmet Yilanci and Oner Atalay (2007), “Past, Present And Future Status Of Electricity In Turkey And The Share Of Energy Sources”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, No. 11, pp. 183–209.
  • Shiu, Alice L. and Le Lam Pun (2004), “Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth In China”, Energy Policy, No. 32, pp. 47-54.
  • Yu, Eden S.H. and Been Kwei Hwang (1984), “The Relationship Between Energy And GNP: Further Results”, Energy Economics, No. 6, pp. 186-190.
  • Yu, Eden S.H. and Je-Young Choi (1985), “The Causal Relationship Between Energy And GNP: An International Comparison”, Journal of Energy and Development, No. 10, pp. 249-272.
  • Zou, Gaolu and K.W. Chau (2006), “Short-and Long-run Effects Between Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in China”, Energy Policy, No. 34, pp. 3644-3655.
Toplam 27 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Cengiz Aktaş Bu kişi benim

Veysel Yılmaz Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2008
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2008 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 8

Kaynak Göster

APA Aktaş, C., & Yılmaz, V. (2008). TÜRKİYE’DE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDA NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 4(8), 45-54.