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INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKISH ECONOMY 1950-2015

Yıl 2017, ICMEB17 Özel Sayısı, 173 - 188, 01.12.2017

Öz

In this study, I analyzed economic growth, inflation and the relationship between these variables from 1950s to 2015 for the Turkish economy, and tried to ascertain causal relationship between them with narrative method. Findings indicate that economic crises and accompanying budget problems result in much higher inflation rate through monetization, and high inflation is more of a result than a cause of economic recessions and crises. In addition, I tried to show that higher moderate inflation can accompany higher economic growth, and reached the conclusion that there is no negative relationship between economic growth and moderate inflation

Kaynakça

  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 443.
  • Bittencourt, M. (2012). Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence.
  • Economic Modelling, 29(2), 333-340. Black, D. C., Dowd, M. R., & Keith, K. (2001). The inflation/growth relationship: evidence from state panel data.
  • Applied Economics Letters, 8(12), 771-774. Bruno, M., & Easterly, W. (1998). Inflation crises and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary economics, 41(1), 26.
  • Burdekin, R. C., Denzau, A. T., Keil, M. W., Sitthiyot, T., & Willett, T. D. (2004). When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies. Journal of macroeconomics, 26(3), 519-532.
  • Eggoh, J. C., & Khan, M. (2014). On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth. Research in Economics, 68(2), 133-143.
  • Gregory, M. N., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly
  • Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. Grier, R., & Grier, K. B. (2006). On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico. Journal of development economics, 80(2), 478-500.
  • Guerrero, F. (2006). Does inflation cause poor long-term growth performance? Japan and the World Economy, (1), 72-89.
  • Gylfason, T., & Herbertsson, T. T. (2001). Does inflation matter for growth? Japan and the World Economy, 13(4), 428.
  • López-Villavicencio, A., & Mignon, V. (2011). On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter? Journal of macroeconomics, 33(3), 455-464.
  • Mallik, G., & Chowdhury, A. (2001). Inflation and economic growth: evidence from four south Asian countries.
  • Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), 123-135. Omay, T., & Kan, E. Ö. (2010). Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation–growth nexus with cross- sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies. Economic Modelling, 27(5), 1005.
  • Pollin, R., & Zhu, A. (2006). Inflation and economic growth: a cross-country nonlinear analysis. Journal of Post
  • Keynesian Economics, 28(4), 593-614. Sala-i-Martin, X. X. (1997). I just ran two million regressions. The American Economic Review, 178-183.
  • Tatlıyer, M. (2016). Enflasyon Neden Yükselir, Nasıl Düşer: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(30), 1-20.
  • Valdovinos, C. G. F. (2003). Inflation and economic growth in the long run. Economics Letters, 80(2), 167-173.
  • Vaona, A., & Schiavo, S. (2007). Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth. Economics Letters, 94(3), 452-458.
  • Vinayagathasan, T. (2013). Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies. Journal of Asian Economics, 26, 31-41.
  • Wilson, B. K. (2006). The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan. Journal of macroeconomics, 28(3), 609-620.

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE ENFLASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME 1950-2015

Yıl 2017, ICMEB17 Özel Sayısı, 173 - 188, 01.12.2017

Öz

Bu çalışmada 1950’lerden 2015’e kadar Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyonnin seyri ve bu ikisi arasındaki ilişki incelenmiş ve aralarındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin niteliği betimsel analizle ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Sonuçta ise Türkiye’de ekonomik krizlerin ve bu krizlere eşlik eden bütçesel sıkıntıların parasallaşma yoluyla enflasyon oranının ciddi biçimde yükselmesine yol açtığı, bu açıdan yüksek enflasyonun ekonomik resesyonların ve krizlerin bir nedeni olmaktan çok sonucu olduğu anlayışına ulaşılmıştır. Öte yandan, daha yüksek ılımlı enflasyonun daha yüksek ekonomik büyümeye eşlik edebildiği ortaya konulmaya çalışılmış, böylece enflasyon ile ekonomik büyüme arasında özellikle ılımlı enflasyon oranlarının cari olduğu dönemlerde olumsuz bir ilişkinin olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 443.
  • Bittencourt, M. (2012). Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence.
  • Economic Modelling, 29(2), 333-340. Black, D. C., Dowd, M. R., & Keith, K. (2001). The inflation/growth relationship: evidence from state panel data.
  • Applied Economics Letters, 8(12), 771-774. Bruno, M., & Easterly, W. (1998). Inflation crises and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary economics, 41(1), 26.
  • Burdekin, R. C., Denzau, A. T., Keil, M. W., Sitthiyot, T., & Willett, T. D. (2004). When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies. Journal of macroeconomics, 26(3), 519-532.
  • Eggoh, J. C., & Khan, M. (2014). On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth. Research in Economics, 68(2), 133-143.
  • Gregory, M. N., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly
  • Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. Grier, R., & Grier, K. B. (2006). On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico. Journal of development economics, 80(2), 478-500.
  • Guerrero, F. (2006). Does inflation cause poor long-term growth performance? Japan and the World Economy, (1), 72-89.
  • Gylfason, T., & Herbertsson, T. T. (2001). Does inflation matter for growth? Japan and the World Economy, 13(4), 428.
  • López-Villavicencio, A., & Mignon, V. (2011). On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter? Journal of macroeconomics, 33(3), 455-464.
  • Mallik, G., & Chowdhury, A. (2001). Inflation and economic growth: evidence from four south Asian countries.
  • Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), 123-135. Omay, T., & Kan, E. Ö. (2010). Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation–growth nexus with cross- sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies. Economic Modelling, 27(5), 1005.
  • Pollin, R., & Zhu, A. (2006). Inflation and economic growth: a cross-country nonlinear analysis. Journal of Post
  • Keynesian Economics, 28(4), 593-614. Sala-i-Martin, X. X. (1997). I just ran two million regressions. The American Economic Review, 178-183.
  • Tatlıyer, M. (2016). Enflasyon Neden Yükselir, Nasıl Düşer: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(30), 1-20.
  • Valdovinos, C. G. F. (2003). Inflation and economic growth in the long run. Economics Letters, 80(2), 167-173.
  • Vaona, A., & Schiavo, S. (2007). Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth. Economics Letters, 94(3), 452-458.
  • Vinayagathasan, T. (2013). Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies. Journal of Asian Economics, 26, 31-41.
  • Wilson, B. K. (2006). The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan. Journal of macroeconomics, 28(3), 609-620.
Toplam 20 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Mevlüt Tatlıyer

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2017
Gönderilme Tarihi 12 Ekim 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 ICMEB17 Özel Sayısı

Kaynak Göster

APA Tatlıyer, M. (2017). TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE ENFLASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME 1950-2015. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 13(13), 173-188.