THE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL STABILITY/UNSTABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN APPLICATION ON THE WORLD’S LARGEST FIRST TWENTY ECONOMIES 1996-2015

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 277 - 298, 01.04.2017

Ömer Yalçınkaya Vedat Kaya

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2017228684

Cited By: 9

Öz

In this study, the effects of political stability/unstability on economic growth are examined by analyzing panel data for the period of 1996-2015 on the world’s largest first twenty economies which have different political regime types. In the study, it is aimed to assess the effects of political stability/instability in the differentiation of the development levels of these 20 economies, grouped as economically developed G-12 and developing G-8 countries. As a result of the study, it was determined that the effects of the political stability/instability index on economic growth in the G-12 and G-8 groups were respectively positive/negative direction and statistically significant in the review period. At the same time, it has been found that the fact that the study has respectively a stable and unstable structure in terms of politics in comparison with the accumulation of physical-human capital the degree of integration with the outside world in the differentiation of the development levels of the countries in the G-12 and G-8 groups is relatively more effective

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sustainable Growth, Political Stability/Instability Index, Largest First Twenty

POLİTİK İSTİKRARIN/İSTİKRARSIZLIĞIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: DÜNYANIN EN BÜYÜK İLK YİRMİ EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNDE BİR UYGULAMA 1996-2015

Öz

Bu çalışmada, politik istikrarın/istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri farklı politik rejim tiplerine sahip dünyanın en büyük ilk 20 ekonomisi üzerinde 1996-2015 dönemi için panel veri analiziyle incelenmektedir. Çalışmada, ekonomik açıdan gelişmiş G-12 ve gelişmekte olan G-8 ülkeleri olarak gruplandırılan bu 20 ekonominin gelişmişlik düzeylerinin farklılaşmasında politik istikrarın/istikrarsızlığın etkilerinin değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda, inceleme döneminde G-12 ve G-8 gruplarında politik istikrar/istikrarsızlık endeksinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin sırasıyla pozitif/negatif yönlü ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, çalışmada G-12 ve G-8 grubundaki ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeylerinin farklılaşmasında fiziksel-beşeri sermaye birikiminin ve dış dünyayla bütünleşme derecelerine kıyasla politik açıdan sırasıyla istikrarlı ve istikrarsız bir yapıya sahip olmalarının nispeten daha fazla etkili olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sürdürülebilir Büyüme, Politik İstikrar/İstikrarsızlık Endeksi, En Büyük

Kaynakça

• Abdiweli, M. A. (2001). Political instability, policy uncertainty, and economic growth: An empirical investigation. Atlantic Economic Journal, 29(1), 87-106.
• Aisen, A. & Veiga, F. J. (2011). How does political instability effect economic growth. International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper No: 12.
• Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). How Does political instability affect economic growth?. European Journal of Political Economy, 29, 151-167. Alesina, A.
• Rodrik, D., (1994). Distributive politics and economic growth. Quarterly
• Journal of Economics. 109(2), 465-490.
• Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1996). Income distribution, political stability and investment. European Economic Review. 40(6), 1203-1228.
• Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N. & Swagel, P. (1996). Political stability and economic growth, Journal of Economic Growth. 1(2), 189-211.
• Arslan, Ü. (2011). Siyasi istikrarsızlık ve ekonomik performans: Türkiye örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(1), 73-80.
• Asteriou, D., & Price, S. (2001). Political instability and economic growth: UK time series evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4), 383-399.
• Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), 407-444.
• Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. W. (1993). Losers and winners in economic growth. The World Bank Economic Review, 7(1), 267-298.
• Barro, J. Robert, & Lee, J. W. (1994). Sources of economic growth. Canegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, North-Holland, 40, 1-46.
• Bashir, M., & Xu, C. (2014). Impact of political freedom, economic freedom and political stability on economic growth. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(22), 59-67.
• Berber, M. (2011). İktisadi büyüme ve kalkınma: büyüme teorileri ve kalkınma ekonomisi. 4. Baskı, Trabzon: Derya Kitapevi.
• Berthélemy, J. C., Kauffmann, C., Renard, L., & Wegner, L. (2002). Political instability, political regimes and economic performance in african countries. Unpublished Paper Prepared for African Development Bank, African Economic Outlook, Paris.
• Bildirici, M. (2004). Political instability and growth: an econometric analysis of Turkey, Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, 1985-2004. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(4), 5-26.
• Breitung, J. (2005). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data. Econometric Reviews, 24(2), 151-173.
• Breuer, J. B., Mcnown, R. & Wallace, M. (2002). Series specific unit root tests with panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(5), 527-546.
• Cangir, N. (2012). Politik istikrarsızlık ve makroekonomik performans ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara.
• Carmignani, F. (2003). Political instability, uncertainty and economics. Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(1), 1-54.
• Chen, B., & Feng, Y. (1996). Some political determinants of economic growth: theory and empirical implications. European Journal of Political Economy, 12, 609-627.
• Collier, P. (1999). On the economic consequences of civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 51, 163-83.
• Devereux, M. B., & Wen, J. (1997). Political ınstability, capital taxation and growth. European Economic Review, 42, 1635- 1651.
• Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (1997). Africa’s growth tragedy: policies and ethnic divisions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(4), 1203-1250.
• Easterly, W., & Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal policy and economic growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 417–458.
• Easterly, W., Kremer, M., Pritchett, L., & Summers, L. H. (1993). Good policy or good luck?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 459-483.
• Emirmahmutoğlu, F. & Köse N. (2011). Testing for granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876.
• Fosu, A. K. (1992). Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40(4), 829-841.
• Ghate C., Vu Le, Q., & Zak, P. J. (2003) Optimal fiscal policy in an economy facing socio- political ınstability. Review of Development Economics, 7(4), 583-598.
• Grilli, V., Masciandaro, D., & Tabellini, G. (1991). Political and monetary ınstitutions and public financial policies in the industrial countries. Economic Policy, 6(13), 341-392.
• Gurgul, H., & Lach, Ł. (2012). Political ınstability and economic growth: evidence from two decades of transition in cee. Munich Personal RePEc, MPRA Paper No: 37792, Archive Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37792/.
• Gür, T. H. & Akbulut, H. (2012). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde politik istikrarın ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi. Sosyo-Ekonomi, 1, 281-300.
• Gyimah-Brempong, K., & Camacho, S. M. D. (1998). Political instability, human capital, and economic growth in Latin America. The Journal of Developing Areas, 32(4), 449-466.
• Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panels. Econometrics Journal, 3, 148-161.
• Hadri, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor. Economics Letters, 115, 31-34.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
• Isham, J., Kaufmann, D., & Pritchett, L. (1997). Civil liberties, democracy, and the performance of government projects. The World Bank Economic Review, 11(2), 219–42.
• Jaouadi, S., Lamia A., & Azza Z. (2014). Political instability and growth: case of the developing countries. International Journal of Social Science Research, 2(1), 19-28.
• Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2), 231-254.
• Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its ımpact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 25, 15-29.
• Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44. Karahan, H.
• Karagöl, Erdal T. (2014). Ekonomik performansın temel taşı: siyasi istikrar.
• SETA Perspektif, 41, 1-5.
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The worldwide governance indicators methodology and analytical issues. The World Bank Development Research Group Macroeconomics and Growth Team, Policy Research Working Paper No: 5430.
• Knack, S., & Keefer P. (1995). Institutions and economic performance: cross country tests using alternative institutional measures. Economics & Politics, 7(3), 207-227.
• Kormendi, Roger C., & Meguire, Philip G. (1985). Macroeconomic determinants of growth: cross-country evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(2), 141-163.
• Kök, R. & Şimşek, N. (2006, Eylül). Endüstri İçi dış ticaret, patentler ve uluslararası teknolojik yayılma. Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Uluslararası Ekonomi Konferansı, Ankara.
• Kök, R., İspir, M. S., & Arı, A. A. (2010). Zengin ülkelerden azgelişmiş ülkelere kaynak aktarma mekanizmasının gerekliliği ve evrensel bölüşüm parametresi üzerine bir deneme. Erişim Tarihi: 11.10.2016, http://kisi.deu.edu.tr/recep.kok/Zengin_ispir.pdf.
• Küçüker, C. (2003). Türkiye İktisat Kongresi büyüme stratejileri çalışma grubu. Discussion paper. Turkish Economic Association, No. 2003/5.
• Landau, D. (1986). Government and economic growth in the less developed countries: an empirical study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 35-75.
• Lensink, R., Hermes, N., & Murinde, V. (2000). Capital flight and political risk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 19,73-92.
• Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108 (1), 1-24.
• Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 681-712.
• Murphy, K., Sleifer, A. & Vishny, R. (1991). The allocation of talent: Implications for growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 503-530.
• Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro iktisat politikalarının tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için bir karşılaştırma. Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Kayseri.
• Okafor, G. (2015). The impact of political instability on the economic growth of ecowas member countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 1-22.
• Parlakyıldız, F. M. (2015). Makro ekonomik ve politik istikrarsızlığın ekonomik performans üzerine etkisi: Latin Amerika örneği. Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 19(2), 1.11.
• Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(1), 653-670.
• Perotti, R. (1996). Growth, income, distribution and democracy: What the data say?. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 149-187.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias adjusted lm test of error cross section ındependence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
• Sala-i Martin, Xavier X. (1997). I just run four million regressions. NBER Working Paper, No: 4186.
• Seonjou, K., & Meernik, J. (2005). Civil war destruction and prospects for economic growth. Journal of Politics, 67(1), 88-109.
• Şanlısoy, S. (2010). Politik istikrarsızlık-ekonomik süreç politikaları etkileşimi. Sosyoekonomi, 13(13), 192-214.
• Şanlısoy, S., & Kök, R. (2010). Politik istikrarsızlık ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1987-2006). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(1), 101-125.
• Tarı, R. (2010). Ekonometri. 6. Baskı. Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
• Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2013). İleri panel veri analizi-stata uygulamalı. 2. Baskı. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım.
• Taylor, M. P., & Sarno, L. (1998). The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-bretton woods period. Journal of International Economics, 46(2), 281-312.
• Telatar, F. (2003). Türkiye’de politika değişkenliği ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri. İşletme ve Finans, 211, 71-91.
• Uddin, M. A., & Masih, M. (2016). War and peace: Why is political stability pivotal for economic growth of oic countries?.Munich Personal RePEc, MPRA Paper No: 71678. ArchiveOnline at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71678/.
• Westerlund, J. & Edgerton, D. L. (2007). A panel bootstrap cointegration test. Economics Letters, 97(3), 185-190.
• Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233.
• Younis, M., Lin, X. Xiao., Sharahili, Y., & Selvarathinam, S. (2008). Political stability and economic growth in asia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(3), 203-208.