IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Yıl 2016, ICAFR 16 Özel Sayısı, 225 - 236, 01.10.2016

Hüseyin Karamelikli Yılmaz Bayar

Öz

Economic growth, macroeconomic stability and financial stability are among major policy goals of countries. This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic and financial stability on economic growth in Turkey during the period Ocak 2005-December 2015 using ARDL cointegration. We found that there was a long run relationship among the variables; increases in non-performing loans by banks and TL/dollar foreign exchange rates had negative impact on industrial production in both short and long run. Furthermore, increases in change of domestic credit to private sector by bank had positive impact on industrial production only in short run

Anahtar Kelimeler

Macroeconomic stability, financial stability, economic growth, Turkey, time series analysis

MAKROEKONOMİK VE FİNANSAL İSTİKRARIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Ekonomik büyüme, makroekonomik ve finansal istikrar ülkelerin başlıca politika hedefleri arasında yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada ARDL sınır testine dayalı eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak Ocak 2005-Aralık 2015 döneminde Türkiye’de makroekonomik istikrar ile finansal istikrarın, ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olduğu, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde bankalar tarafından tasfiye olunacak alacaklar ile döviz kuru değişim oranındaki artışların, sanayi üretimi üzerinde negatif etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca bankalar tarafından özel sektöre verilen kredilerin değişim oranındaki artışların ise, sadece kısa dönemde sanayi üretimi üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Makroekonomik istikrar, finansal istikrar, ekonomik büyüme, Türkiye, zaman serisi analizi

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