BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: EVIDENCE FROM OIL- IMPORTER TURKEY AND OIL-EXPORTER RUSSIA

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 27, 137 - 154, 01.01.2016
https://doi.org/10.17130/10.17130/ijmeb.2016.12.27.1072

Öz

For a country, energy is one of the most important inputs in terms of economic and social development. Therefore, it is extremely important to have a sustainable energy policy and to ensure price stability in a market environment. In this context, this study examines the impact of oil price changes on inflation and industrial production for a net oil importer country and net oil exporter country by dependency relationship between Turkey and Russia. The impact of energy price changes is analysed for Turkey and Russia for the period 1995:012014:12 with monthly data by using the SVAR method. The findings suggest that energy price changes affect inflation and industrial production in both countries

Kaynakça

  • Baghestani, H. (2014). Inflation expectations and energy price forecasting. OPEC Energy Review, 38, 21-35.
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., Watson M., Sims C. A., & Friedman B. M. (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 91-157.
  • Blanchard O., & Gali, J. (2007). The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different than the 1970s?. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 13368.
  • Brown, S. P. A., & Yücel, M. K. (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: An interpretative survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42, 193-208.
  • Cunado, J., Jo S., & Perez de Gracia, F. (2015). Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies. Energy Policy, 86, 867-879.
  • Du, L., He Y. & Wei, C. (2010). The relationship between oil price shocks and China’s macro- economy: An empirical analysis. Energy Policy, 38, 4142-4151.
  • Eltony, M. N. & Al-Awadi, M. (2001). Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait: A case study using a VAR model. International Journal of Energy Reserach, 25, 939-959.
  • Farzanegan, M. R. & Markwardt, G. (2009). The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy. Energy Economics, 31, 134-151.
  • Filis, G. & Chatziantoniou, I. (2014). Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 42, 709-729.
  • Ftiti, Z., Tiwari A. & Fatnassi I. (2014). Oil price and macroeconomy in India: An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach. IPAG Working Paper Series, 2014-068.
  • Grossman, P.Z. (2015). Energy shocks, crises and the policy process: A review of theory and application. Energy Policy, 77, 56-69.
  • Gavin, W.T., Keen, B. D. & Kydland, F. E. (2013). Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series, 2013-019B.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. The Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.
  • Hesary, F. T. & Yoshino, N. (2014). Monetary policies and oil price determination: An empirical analysis. OPEC Energy Review, 38, 1-20.
  • Jbir, R. & Zouari-Ghorbel, S.(2009). Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy. Energy Policy, 37, 195-213.
  • Jimenez-Rodriguez, R. & Sanchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: Empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37, 201-228.
  • Iwayemi, A. & Fowowe, B. (2011). Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Energy Policy, 39, 603-612.
  • Kaplan, F. (2015). Oil price, exhange rate and economic growth in Russia: A multiple structural break approach. Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 5, 91-104.
  • Kappl R., Nilles, H. P. & Winkler, M. W. (2015). Natural inflation and low energy supersymmetry. Physics Letters B, 746, 15-21.
  • McCoy, D. (1997). How useful is structural VAR analysis for Irish economics? Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 2/RT/97, April.
  • Manera, M. & Cologni, A. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 Countries. Energy Economics, 30, 856-888.
  • Mendoza, O. & Vera, D. (2010). The asymmetric effects of oil shocks on an oil-exporting economy. Cuadernos de Economia, 47, 3-13.
  • Olomola, P. A. & Adejumo, A. V. (2006). Oil price shock and macroeconomic activities in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 3, 28-34.
  • Papapetrou, E. (2001). Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece. Energy Economics, 23, 511-532.
  • Pao, H. T., Yu, H. C. & Yang, Y. H. (2011). Modeling the CO2 emissions, energy use and economic growth in Russia. Energy, 36, 5094-5100.
  • Soytas, U., Sari, R., Hammoudeh, S. & Hacihasanoglu, E. (2009). World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37, 5557-5566.
  • Tang, W., Wu, L. & Zhang, Z. X. (2010). Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy. Energy Economics, 32, 3-14.
  • Wang, Y. & Zhu, Q. (2015). Energy price shocks, monetary policy and China’s economic fluctuations. Asian-Pasific Economic Literature, 29, 126-141.
  • Yoshino, N. & Taghizadeh-Hesary F. (2014). How higher energy prices can create inflation? ADBI Working Paper Series, 503.

ENERJİ FİYATLARI İLE MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: PETROL İTHALATÇISI TÜRKİYE VE PETROL İHRACATÇISI RUSYA’DAN KANITLAR

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 27, 137 - 154, 01.01.2016
https://doi.org/10.17130/10.17130/ijmeb.2016.12.27.1072

Öz

Bir ülke için ekonomik ve sosyal kalkınma anlamında enerji en önemli girdilerden birini oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısıyla enerji politikalarının sürdürülebilir olması ve fiyat istikrarının sağlandığı bir piyasa ortamında gerçekleştirilmesi son derece önem arz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda bu çalışmada, Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki enerji bağımlılığı ilişkisinden hareketle; net ithalatçı bir ülke ile net ihracatçı bir ülke için enerji fiyat değişimlerinin enflasyon ve sanayi üretimi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. Net ithalatçı Türkiye ile net ihracatçı Rusya açısından enerji fiyat değişimlerinin etkisi 1995:01-2014:12 dönemini kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılarak SVAR yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, enerji fiyat değişimlerinin enflasyon ve sanayi üretimi üzerinde her iki ülke için etkili olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Baghestani, H. (2014). Inflation expectations and energy price forecasting. OPEC Energy Review, 38, 21-35.
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., Watson M., Sims C. A., & Friedman B. M. (1997). Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 91-157.
  • Blanchard O., & Gali, J. (2007). The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different than the 1970s?. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 13368.
  • Brown, S. P. A., & Yücel, M. K. (2002). Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: An interpretative survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42, 193-208.
  • Cunado, J., Jo S., & Perez de Gracia, F. (2015). Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies. Energy Policy, 86, 867-879.
  • Du, L., He Y. & Wei, C. (2010). The relationship between oil price shocks and China’s macro- economy: An empirical analysis. Energy Policy, 38, 4142-4151.
  • Eltony, M. N. & Al-Awadi, M. (2001). Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait: A case study using a VAR model. International Journal of Energy Reserach, 25, 939-959.
  • Farzanegan, M. R. & Markwardt, G. (2009). The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy. Energy Economics, 31, 134-151.
  • Filis, G. & Chatziantoniou, I. (2014). Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 42, 709-729.
  • Ftiti, Z., Tiwari A. & Fatnassi I. (2014). Oil price and macroeconomy in India: An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach. IPAG Working Paper Series, 2014-068.
  • Grossman, P.Z. (2015). Energy shocks, crises and the policy process: A review of theory and application. Energy Policy, 77, 56-69.
  • Gavin, W.T., Keen, B. D. & Kydland, F. E. (2013). Monetary policy, the tax code, and the real effects of energy shocks. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series, 2013-019B.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. The Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.
  • Hesary, F. T. & Yoshino, N. (2014). Monetary policies and oil price determination: An empirical analysis. OPEC Energy Review, 38, 1-20.
  • Jbir, R. & Zouari-Ghorbel, S.(2009). Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy. Energy Policy, 37, 195-213.
  • Jimenez-Rodriguez, R. & Sanchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: Empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37, 201-228.
  • Iwayemi, A. & Fowowe, B. (2011). Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Energy Policy, 39, 603-612.
  • Kaplan, F. (2015). Oil price, exhange rate and economic growth in Russia: A multiple structural break approach. Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 5, 91-104.
  • Kappl R., Nilles, H. P. & Winkler, M. W. (2015). Natural inflation and low energy supersymmetry. Physics Letters B, 746, 15-21.
  • McCoy, D. (1997). How useful is structural VAR analysis for Irish economics? Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 2/RT/97, April.
  • Manera, M. & Cologni, A. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 Countries. Energy Economics, 30, 856-888.
  • Mendoza, O. & Vera, D. (2010). The asymmetric effects of oil shocks on an oil-exporting economy. Cuadernos de Economia, 47, 3-13.
  • Olomola, P. A. & Adejumo, A. V. (2006). Oil price shock and macroeconomic activities in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 3, 28-34.
  • Papapetrou, E. (2001). Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece. Energy Economics, 23, 511-532.
  • Pao, H. T., Yu, H. C. & Yang, Y. H. (2011). Modeling the CO2 emissions, energy use and economic growth in Russia. Energy, 36, 5094-5100.
  • Soytas, U., Sari, R., Hammoudeh, S. & Hacihasanoglu, E. (2009). World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37, 5557-5566.
  • Tang, W., Wu, L. & Zhang, Z. X. (2010). Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy. Energy Economics, 32, 3-14.
  • Wang, Y. & Zhu, Q. (2015). Energy price shocks, monetary policy and China’s economic fluctuations. Asian-Pasific Economic Literature, 29, 126-141.
  • Yoshino, N. & Taghizadeh-Hesary F. (2014). How higher energy prices can create inflation? ADBI Working Paper Series, 503.
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Asuman Koç Yurtkur Bu kişi benim

Nadide Sevil Halıcı Tülüce Bu kişi benim

Bersu Bahtiyar Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ocak 2016
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2016 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 27

Kaynak Göster

APA Koç Yurtkur, A., Halıcı Tülüce, N. S., & Bahtiyar, B. (2016). THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY PRICES AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: EVIDENCE FROM OIL- IMPORTER TURKEY AND OIL-EXPORTER RUSSIA. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(27), 137-154. https://doi.org/10.17130/10.17130/ijmeb.2016.12.27.1072