BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

DEBT DEFLATION: THE EVOLUTION OF THEORY AND AN EVALUATION FOR EUROPE

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 26, 1 - 28, 01.09.2015
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2015.11.26.889

Öz

Debt deflation which includes over-indebtedness and deflation vicious circle means that over-indebtedness in private sector causes asset sales, monetary contraction and deterioration in financial sector and so demand shrinking and aggravates deflation process. Debt deflation is an outcome of expansion, globalization and deregulation of financial system. As a result of increasing deregulation of financial system, increasing number of financial crises started to increase the possibility of debt deflation process. Debt deflation first theorized during the Great Depression of 1929. But it has attracted attention recently in company with the crises. And one of these crises is European Debt Crisis which contains debt deflation dynamics nowadays. The aim of this study is to evaluate the debt deflation, worries about it and its possibility in the Euro Area peripheral countries which has been getting hit by European Debt Crisis. Consequently, it can be said that in these countries there has been occurring some debt deflation dynamics but they are not strong enough. So, there isn’t a clear and strong debt deflation process nowadays. But, in order to prevent debt deflation process in these countries, it is essential to ease the consolidation measures and to continue expansionary and restorative monetary policies

Kaynakça

  • Arold, B., & Schneider, R. (2014). How significant are the deflation risks in the Eurozone? Allianz Economic Research Working Paper, 172.
  • Assous, M. (2013). Irving Fisher’s debt deflation analysis: from the purchasing power of money (1911) to the debt-deflation theory of the Great Depression (1933). The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 20(2), 305-322.
  • Bakker, J. D. (t.y.). Fisher dynamics and private leverage in the European Monetary Union. Erişim Tarihi: 02.08.2014, http://ineteconomics.org/sites/inet.civicactions.net/files/ bakker.pdf
  • Ballabriga, F. (2014). Euro Zone crisis: Diagnosis and likely solutions. ESADEgeo Position Paper, 35.
  • Bank of England (2013). Financial stability report, 33. Erişim Tarihi: 10.08.2014, http://www. bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/fsr/2013/fsrfull1306.pdf
  • Beker, V. A. (2014), The European debt crisis: Causes and consequences. Journal of Stock&forex Trading, 3(2), 1-9.
  • Nitekim De Grauwe & Ji (2013), konsolidayonların piyasadaki paniği ve kamu borçlanma faizini azaltmak için
  • yapıldığını belirtmiştir.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the propagation of the Great Depression. The American Economic Review, 73(3), 257-276.
  • Bilkic, N., Carreras Painter, B., & Gries, T. (2013). Unsustainable sovereign debt-is the Euro Crisis only the tip of the iceberg. International Economics and Economic Policy, 10(1), 1-45.
  • Brok, E., & Langen, W. (2012). Sustainable growth for Europe: The four crisis and a call for reform. Europan View, 11, 189-199.
  • Cayla, D. (2013). European Debt Crisis: How a public debt restructuring can solve a pricate debt issue. Journal of Economic Issues, 47(2), 427-436.
  • Cecchetti, S. G. (1992). Prices during the Great Depression: Was the deflation of 1930-32 really unanticipated? The American Economic Review, 82(1), 141-156.
  • Chinn, M. D., & Frieden, J.A. (2012). The Eurozone in crisis: Origins and prospects. La Folette School Working Paper, 2010(1), 1-11.
  • Chmelar, A. (2012). Household debt in Europe’s periphery: The dangers of a prolonged recession. ECRI Commentary, 12.
  • Corsetti, G. (2012). Has austerity gone too far? Erişim Tarihi: 12.08.2014, http://www.voxeu. org/article/has-austerity-gone-too-far-new-vox-debate
  • De Grauwe, P. (2009). Keynes’ saving paradox, Fisher’s debt deflation and the banking crisis. Erişim Tarihi: 20.08.2014, http://www.econ-pol.unisi.it/didattica/macro_dalmazzo/ DE%20GRAUWE%20Flow-Stock%20 deflations.pdf
  • De Grauwe, P., & Ji, Y. (2013). Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implications. Erişim Tarihi: 10.09.2014, http://www.voxeu.org/article/panic-driven-austerity- eurozone-and-its-implications
  • Dimand, R. W. (1994). Irving Fisher’s debt deflation theory of Great Depressions. Review of Social Economy, 52(1), 92-107.
  • Dimand, R. W. (1997). Debt deflation theory. İçinde D. Grasner (Ed.), Business Cycles and Depressions (ss. 140-141). New York: Roudledge.
  • Dombert, A. (2013). The European Sovereign Debt Crisis- past, present and future. Erişim Tarihi: 05.05.2014, http://www.bis.org/review/r130827a.pdf
  • European Commission (2007). Towards a common operational European definition of over- indebtedness. Handbook European Commission. Brussels: European Commission. Erişim Tarihi: 06.10.2014, http://www.oee.fr/files/c13_1.pdf
  • European Commission (2014). European economic forecast. European economy 3/2014, Erişim Tarihi: 08.08.2014, http://ec. europa.eu/ economy_finance/ publications/ european_economy/2014/pdf/ee3_en.pdf
  • Eurostat (2015). National accounts. Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2015, http://appsso.eurostat.ec. europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do
  • Fackler, J. S., & Parker, R. E. (2005). Was debt deflation operative during the Great Depression? Economic Inquiry, 43(1), 67-78.
  • Fisher, I. (1932). Booms and depressions. New York: Adelphi.
  • Fisher, I. (1933). The debt-deflation theory of Great Depressions. Econometrica, 1, 337-357.
  • Fondeville, N., Özdemir, E. & Ward, T. (2010). Over-indebtedness. New evidence from the EU-SILC special module. European Commission Research Note, 4.
  • Gros, D., & Alcidi, C. (2013). Is debt deflation a risk? The trade-off between fiscal and competiveness adjustments. Centre for European Policy Studies, 1-15.
  • Groth, C., & Westaway, P. (2009). Deflation. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Q1, 37-44.
  • Guillén, A. (2009). Stages in the new debt deflation Fisher-Minsky crisis. Erişim Tarihi: 15.08.2014, http://cadtm.org/IMG/pdf/ponencia_bilbao_ingles_09.pdf
  • Guttmann, R. (2009). Asset bubbles, debt deflation, and global imbalances. International Journal of Political Economy, 38(2), 45-68.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1992). Was the debt deflation during the Great Depression anticipated? Evidence from the commodity futures market. The American Economic Review, 82(1), 157-178.
  • Hudson, M. (2012). The road to debt deflation, debt peonage and neofeudalism. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, 708.
  • Illing, G. (2014). Should the euro area be concerned about deflation? Intereconomics, 3, 114- 115.
  • IMF. (2013). Euro Area policies. IMF Country Report, IMF Publishing, Washington, 13(231)
  • IMF. (2014). Euro Area policies. IMF Country Report, IMF Publishing, Washington, 14(198)
  • İnsel, A. (2015). AB ve Syriza el ense çekiyor. Radikal Gazetesi.
  • King, M. (1994). Debt-deflation: Theory and evidence. European Economic Review, 38, 419- 445.
  • Lin, L., Tsomocos, D. P., & Vardoulakis, A. (2010). Debt deflation effects of monetary policy. Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2014, https://www.aeaweb.org/ aea/2013conference/program/ retrieve.php?pdfid=309
  • Maclucas, N. (2014). ECB/Nowotny: ECB sorunları tek başına çözemez. The Wall Street Journal. Erişim Tarihi: 25.09.2014, http://www.wsj.com.tr/ articles/SB100014240529 70204892304580143332883387498
  • Meltzer, A. H. (1997). Comment on debt deflation: Theory and evidence. Tepper Scholl of Business Research Showcase Paper, 854.
  • Mendoza, E. G. (2006). Lessons from the debt-deflation theory of sudden stops. The American Economic Review, 96(2). 411-416.
  • Minsky, H. P. (1963). Can ‘It’ happen again? Essays on instability and finance. New York: M.E. Sharpe.
  • Minsky, H. P. (1982). Debt deflation process in today’s institutional environment. Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro, 143, 375-393.
  • Prinz, A. & Beck, H. (2012). Fighting debt explosion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Intereconomics, 3, 185-189
  • Roche, D. (2014). Against the tide: Debt deflation in Europe? Erişim Tarihi: 15.08.2014, http:// www.euromoney.com/Article/3340792/Against-the-tide-Europe-deflates-time-for-QE. html
  • Sau, L. (2014). Debt deflation worries: A restatement. CESMEP Working Papers, 2, 2014.
  • Shiller, R. J. (2011). Irving Fisher, debt deflation and crises. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper, 1817.
  • Silbertson, R. (2014). Euro-zone deflation: Making sure ‘it’ happens here? Investec Asset Management. Erişim Tarihi: 20.08.2014, http://www.investecassetmana gement.com
  • Szczygielski, P. (2012). Examining the dynamics of European Debt Crisis: Projections and lessons learned for Portugal. Contraditorio Policy Paper, 11(15), 1-68.
  • S&P. (2014). 2013 Annual global corporate default study and rating transitions. Erişim Tarihi:25.08.2014,http://www.maalot.co.il/ publications/ FTS20140324161422.pdf
  • Tichy, G. (2012). The Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes and consequences. Austrian Economic Quarterly, 2, 95-107.
  • Tobin, J. (1980). Asset accumulation and economic activity: Reflections on contemporary macroeconomic theory. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Ulusoy, A. (2006). Devlet Borçlanması. Trabzon: Üçyol Kitapevi.
  • Volz, U. (2012). Lessons of the European Crisis for regional monetary and financial integration in East Asia. ADBI Working Papers, 347. Erişim Tarihi: 20.10.2013,http://www.adbi. org/files/2012.02.21.wp347.lessons.European.crisis.east.asia.pdf
  • Von Peter, G. (2005). Debt-deflation: Concepts and a stylised model. BIS Working Papers, 176.
  • Wolfson, M. H. (1996). Irving Fisher’s debt deflation theory: It’s relevance to current conditions. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 20, 315-333.
  • Wolfson, M. H. (2002). Minsky’s theory of financial crisis in a global context. Journal of Economic Issues, XXXVI(2), 393-400.
  • World Bank (2014). Strengthening recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. EU11 Regular Economic Report. Erişim Tarihi: 08.08.2014, http://www.worldbank.org /content/dam/ Worldbank/Feature%20Story/ECA/eu11-regular-economic-report-july-2014.pdf

BORÇ DEFLASYONU: TEORİNİN GELİŞİMİ VE AVRUPA’DA BORÇ DEFLASYONUNA İLİŞKİN DEĞERLENDİRMELER

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 26, 1 - 28, 01.09.2015
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2015.11.26.889

Öz

Aşırı borçluluk ve deflasyon döngüsünü ele alan borç deflasyonu, aşırı özel sektör borçluluğunun, varlık satışı ve parasal daralmaya yol açarak finansal sistemin işleyişini bozması, bu yolla talebi azaltması ve deflasyonu pekiştirmesidir. Borç deflasyonu, finansal sistemin büyümesi, globalleşmesi ve serbestleşmesinin bir sonucudur. Finansal sistemin serbestleşmesiyle artan finansal krizler, borç deflasyonu olasılığını da arttırmaya başlamıştır. Borç deflasyonu ilk olarak 1929 krizinde ortaya atılmış ancak asıl ilgiyi son dönemlerde artan krizlerle birlikte üzerine çekmiştir. Bu krizlerden güncelliğini koruyan Avrupa borç krizi ise sahip olduğu özelliklerle borç deflasyonuna yol açabilecek yapıya sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, son dönemde Avrupa borç kriziyle sarsılan Avro Bölgesi çevre ülkelerinde artan borç deflasyonu kaygılarını değerlendirmek ve Avro Bölgesi çevre ülkelerinde borç deflasyonu olgusu ve olasılığı araştırmaktır. Sonuç olarak, bu ülkelerde borç deflasyonu belirtileri görülmekle birlikte henüz tam anlamıyla borç deflasyonunun yaşanmadığı söylenebilir. Ancak, bu ülkelerin olası bir borç deflasyonunu önleyebilmesi için, genişletici ve onarıcı para politikalarına devam etmesi ve konsolidasyonları azaltması zorunlu görünmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Arold, B., & Schneider, R. (2014). How significant are the deflation risks in the Eurozone? Allianz Economic Research Working Paper, 172.
  • Assous, M. (2013). Irving Fisher’s debt deflation analysis: from the purchasing power of money (1911) to the debt-deflation theory of the Great Depression (1933). The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 20(2), 305-322.
  • Bakker, J. D. (t.y.). Fisher dynamics and private leverage in the European Monetary Union. Erişim Tarihi: 02.08.2014, http://ineteconomics.org/sites/inet.civicactions.net/files/ bakker.pdf
  • Ballabriga, F. (2014). Euro Zone crisis: Diagnosis and likely solutions. ESADEgeo Position Paper, 35.
  • Bank of England (2013). Financial stability report, 33. Erişim Tarihi: 10.08.2014, http://www. bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/fsr/2013/fsrfull1306.pdf
  • Beker, V. A. (2014), The European debt crisis: Causes and consequences. Journal of Stock&forex Trading, 3(2), 1-9.
  • Nitekim De Grauwe & Ji (2013), konsolidayonların piyasadaki paniği ve kamu borçlanma faizini azaltmak için
  • yapıldığını belirtmiştir.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the propagation of the Great Depression. The American Economic Review, 73(3), 257-276.
  • Bilkic, N., Carreras Painter, B., & Gries, T. (2013). Unsustainable sovereign debt-is the Euro Crisis only the tip of the iceberg. International Economics and Economic Policy, 10(1), 1-45.
  • Brok, E., & Langen, W. (2012). Sustainable growth for Europe: The four crisis and a call for reform. Europan View, 11, 189-199.
  • Cayla, D. (2013). European Debt Crisis: How a public debt restructuring can solve a pricate debt issue. Journal of Economic Issues, 47(2), 427-436.
  • Cecchetti, S. G. (1992). Prices during the Great Depression: Was the deflation of 1930-32 really unanticipated? The American Economic Review, 82(1), 141-156.
  • Chinn, M. D., & Frieden, J.A. (2012). The Eurozone in crisis: Origins and prospects. La Folette School Working Paper, 2010(1), 1-11.
  • Chmelar, A. (2012). Household debt in Europe’s periphery: The dangers of a prolonged recession. ECRI Commentary, 12.
  • Corsetti, G. (2012). Has austerity gone too far? Erişim Tarihi: 12.08.2014, http://www.voxeu. org/article/has-austerity-gone-too-far-new-vox-debate
  • De Grauwe, P. (2009). Keynes’ saving paradox, Fisher’s debt deflation and the banking crisis. Erişim Tarihi: 20.08.2014, http://www.econ-pol.unisi.it/didattica/macro_dalmazzo/ DE%20GRAUWE%20Flow-Stock%20 deflations.pdf
  • De Grauwe, P., & Ji, Y. (2013). Panic-driven austerity in the Eurozone and its implications. Erişim Tarihi: 10.09.2014, http://www.voxeu.org/article/panic-driven-austerity- eurozone-and-its-implications
  • Dimand, R. W. (1994). Irving Fisher’s debt deflation theory of Great Depressions. Review of Social Economy, 52(1), 92-107.
  • Dimand, R. W. (1997). Debt deflation theory. İçinde D. Grasner (Ed.), Business Cycles and Depressions (ss. 140-141). New York: Roudledge.
  • Dombert, A. (2013). The European Sovereign Debt Crisis- past, present and future. Erişim Tarihi: 05.05.2014, http://www.bis.org/review/r130827a.pdf
  • European Commission (2007). Towards a common operational European definition of over- indebtedness. Handbook European Commission. Brussels: European Commission. Erişim Tarihi: 06.10.2014, http://www.oee.fr/files/c13_1.pdf
  • European Commission (2014). European economic forecast. European economy 3/2014, Erişim Tarihi: 08.08.2014, http://ec. europa.eu/ economy_finance/ publications/ european_economy/2014/pdf/ee3_en.pdf
  • Eurostat (2015). National accounts. Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2015, http://appsso.eurostat.ec. europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do
  • Fackler, J. S., & Parker, R. E. (2005). Was debt deflation operative during the Great Depression? Economic Inquiry, 43(1), 67-78.
  • Fisher, I. (1932). Booms and depressions. New York: Adelphi.
  • Fisher, I. (1933). The debt-deflation theory of Great Depressions. Econometrica, 1, 337-357.
  • Fondeville, N., Özdemir, E. & Ward, T. (2010). Over-indebtedness. New evidence from the EU-SILC special module. European Commission Research Note, 4.
  • Gros, D., & Alcidi, C. (2013). Is debt deflation a risk? The trade-off between fiscal and competiveness adjustments. Centre for European Policy Studies, 1-15.
  • Groth, C., & Westaway, P. (2009). Deflation. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Q1, 37-44.
  • Guillén, A. (2009). Stages in the new debt deflation Fisher-Minsky crisis. Erişim Tarihi: 15.08.2014, http://cadtm.org/IMG/pdf/ponencia_bilbao_ingles_09.pdf
  • Guttmann, R. (2009). Asset bubbles, debt deflation, and global imbalances. International Journal of Political Economy, 38(2), 45-68.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1992). Was the debt deflation during the Great Depression anticipated? Evidence from the commodity futures market. The American Economic Review, 82(1), 157-178.
  • Hudson, M. (2012). The road to debt deflation, debt peonage and neofeudalism. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, 708.
  • Illing, G. (2014). Should the euro area be concerned about deflation? Intereconomics, 3, 114- 115.
  • IMF. (2013). Euro Area policies. IMF Country Report, IMF Publishing, Washington, 13(231)
  • IMF. (2014). Euro Area policies. IMF Country Report, IMF Publishing, Washington, 14(198)
  • İnsel, A. (2015). AB ve Syriza el ense çekiyor. Radikal Gazetesi.
  • King, M. (1994). Debt-deflation: Theory and evidence. European Economic Review, 38, 419- 445.
  • Lin, L., Tsomocos, D. P., & Vardoulakis, A. (2010). Debt deflation effects of monetary policy. Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2014, https://www.aeaweb.org/ aea/2013conference/program/ retrieve.php?pdfid=309
  • Maclucas, N. (2014). ECB/Nowotny: ECB sorunları tek başına çözemez. The Wall Street Journal. Erişim Tarihi: 25.09.2014, http://www.wsj.com.tr/ articles/SB100014240529 70204892304580143332883387498
  • Meltzer, A. H. (1997). Comment on debt deflation: Theory and evidence. Tepper Scholl of Business Research Showcase Paper, 854.
  • Mendoza, E. G. (2006). Lessons from the debt-deflation theory of sudden stops. The American Economic Review, 96(2). 411-416.
  • Minsky, H. P. (1963). Can ‘It’ happen again? Essays on instability and finance. New York: M.E. Sharpe.
  • Minsky, H. P. (1982). Debt deflation process in today’s institutional environment. Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro, 143, 375-393.
  • Prinz, A. & Beck, H. (2012). Fighting debt explosion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Intereconomics, 3, 185-189
  • Roche, D. (2014). Against the tide: Debt deflation in Europe? Erişim Tarihi: 15.08.2014, http:// www.euromoney.com/Article/3340792/Against-the-tide-Europe-deflates-time-for-QE. html
  • Sau, L. (2014). Debt deflation worries: A restatement. CESMEP Working Papers, 2, 2014.
  • Shiller, R. J. (2011). Irving Fisher, debt deflation and crises. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper, 1817.
  • Silbertson, R. (2014). Euro-zone deflation: Making sure ‘it’ happens here? Investec Asset Management. Erişim Tarihi: 20.08.2014, http://www.investecassetmana gement.com
  • Szczygielski, P. (2012). Examining the dynamics of European Debt Crisis: Projections and lessons learned for Portugal. Contraditorio Policy Paper, 11(15), 1-68.
  • S&P. (2014). 2013 Annual global corporate default study and rating transitions. Erişim Tarihi:25.08.2014,http://www.maalot.co.il/ publications/ FTS20140324161422.pdf
  • Tichy, G. (2012). The Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes and consequences. Austrian Economic Quarterly, 2, 95-107.
  • Tobin, J. (1980). Asset accumulation and economic activity: Reflections on contemporary macroeconomic theory. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Ulusoy, A. (2006). Devlet Borçlanması. Trabzon: Üçyol Kitapevi.
  • Volz, U. (2012). Lessons of the European Crisis for regional monetary and financial integration in East Asia. ADBI Working Papers, 347. Erişim Tarihi: 20.10.2013,http://www.adbi. org/files/2012.02.21.wp347.lessons.European.crisis.east.asia.pdf
  • Von Peter, G. (2005). Debt-deflation: Concepts and a stylised model. BIS Working Papers, 176.
  • Wolfson, M. H. (1996). Irving Fisher’s debt deflation theory: It’s relevance to current conditions. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 20, 315-333.
  • Wolfson, M. H. (2002). Minsky’s theory of financial crisis in a global context. Journal of Economic Issues, XXXVI(2), 393-400.
  • World Bank (2014). Strengthening recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. EU11 Regular Economic Report. Erişim Tarihi: 08.08.2014, http://www.worldbank.org /content/dam/ Worldbank/Feature%20Story/ECA/eu11-regular-economic-report-july-2014.pdf
Toplam 60 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Ahmet Ulusoy Bu kişi benim

Birol Karakurt Bu kişi benim

Mehmet Ela Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Eylül 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 26

Kaynak Göster

APA Ulusoy, A., Karakurt, B., & Ela, M. (2015). BORÇ DEFLASYONU: TEORİNİN GELİŞİMİ VE AVRUPA’DA BORÇ DEFLASYONUNA İLİŞKİN DEĞERLENDİRMELER. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 11(26), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2015.11.26.889