AN APPLICATION OF NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE ON TURKEY

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 11, 141 - 162, 01.06.2010

Suna Korkmaz

Öz

Since 1930s until the beginning of the 1970s Keynesian economics dominated both theoric and empirical economics. However, it has undergone criticisms both in theoretical and empirical perspectives due to the stagflation phenomenon dominates the world at the end of 1960s. The reason of empirical criticisms was due to declining importance of classic Phillips curve. For this reason, many economists have tried to analyze Keynesian macro-theory in terms of micro-foundations. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the inflation in Turkey is affected by the past inflation or expectations of future inflation in the new Keynesian view and test it by constructing hybrid form model. This model is tested by the method of TSOLS analyze the inflation phenomenon from a micro perspective. According to the results obtained, inflation in Turkey is determined by the expectations of future inflation rather than past inflation

Anahtar Kelimeler

New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Inflation, TSOLS Method

YENİ KEYNESYEN PHILLIPS EĞRİSİNİN TÜRKİYE’YE UYGULANMASI

Öz

1960’lı yılların sonlarında dünyada hâkim olan stagflasyon olgusu nedeniyle 1930’lardan 1970’li yılların başına kadar geçerli olan Keynesyen iktisat hem teorik hem de ampirik açıdan eleştirilere uğramıştır. Ampirik olarak eleştirilmesinin nedeni Klasik Phillips eğrisinin önemini yitirmesiydi. Bu nedenle birçok iktisatçı Keynesyen makro teoriye mikro temeller açısından bakmaya çalışmışlardır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Yeni Keynesyen görüş ışığında Türkiye’deki enflasyonun, geçmiş enflasyona göre mi yoksa gelecek enflasyon beklentisine göre mi belirlendiğini melez formda oluşturulan modelle sınamaktır. Bu model 2AEKK yöntemi ile sınanarak enflasyon olgusuna mikro açıdan bakılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye’deki enflasyonun geçmiş enflasyondan çok gelecek enflasyon beklentisine göre belirlendiği ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yeni Keynesyen Phillips Eğrisi, Enflasyon, 2AEKK Yöntemi

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