TÜRKİYE’DE KONUT PİYASASININ BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: AMPİRİK BİR UYGULAMA

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 10, 21 - 46, 01.12.2009

Nurettin Öztürk , Esra Fitöz

Öz

Makroekonomi literatüründe konut iktisadı ile ilgili çalışmaların sayısı gittikçe artmaktadır. Özellikle finansal küreselleşme ile birlikte artan sermaye akımlarının ilgi duyduğu alanlara konut yatırımları da eklenmiştir. Bu çalışma Türkiye konut piyasasında konut arz ve talebinin belirleyicilerini bir regresyon analizi ile ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre kişi başına milli gelir, konut fiyatları ve faiz oranları ile konut talebi arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki; demografik faktörler ile konut talebi arasında ise önemsiz bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Çalışmanın bulguları 1994 yılından itibaren konut talebindeki artış oranının yavaşladığı yönündedir. Konut arzını belirleyen değişkenlerden kişi başına milli gelir, konut fiyatları ve M2 parasal büyüklüğündeki artış yani likidite genişlemesi ile konut arzı arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Makroekonomi ve Konut, Konut Talebi, Konut Arzı, Regresyon, Türkiye

THE DETERMINANTS OF HOUSING SECTOR IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Öz

The studies on housing market in the macroeconomics literature have evolved rapidly. The increased capital flows through financial globalization went into housing investments as well as other areas. This study aims to present supply and demand determinants of the housing market in Turkey using regression analysis. This study reveals that while there is a negative relationship between housing demand and GDP per capita and housing prices, a positive relationship is found between demographic factors and housing demand. The other finding is that increase in the demand for housing slows down starting from 1994. The variables in the housing supply such as per capita GDP, housing prices and increase in M2 monetary expansion, namely liquidity expansion, have a positive relationship with housing supply

Anahtar Kelimeler

Macroeconomics and Housing, Housing Demand, Housing Supply, Regression, Turkey

Kaynakça

• Bayat, Kemalettin (2001), “Türkiye’de Konut Sorunu ve Politikası”, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
• Bernanke, Ben and Mark Gerttler (2000), “Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility”, NBER Working Paper no: 7559.
• Blumenfeld, Hans, (1944), “A Neglected Factor in Estimating Housing Demand”, The Journal of Land & Public Utility Economics, Vol.20, No.3, pp.264–270.
• Breusch, Trevor S., (1978), “Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models”, Australian Economic Papers, Vol.17, pp.334-355.
• Chan, Sai-fan Thomas (1999), “Residential Construction and Credit Market Imperfection,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.18, No.1, pp.125–139.
• Davis, Morris and Jonathan Heathcote (2003), “Housing and The Business Cycle”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, USA, http://www.federalreserve.gov/ pubs/feds/2004/200411/200411pap.pdf, [Erişim Tarihi: 11.09.2007].
• Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.74, pp.427–431.
• Dipasquale, Denise (1999), “Why Don’t We Know More About Housing Supply?”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.18, No.1, pp.9–23.
• Dispasquale, Denise and William C. Wheaton (1994), “Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices”, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol.3, No.1, pp.1– 27.
• DPT, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler, http://www.dpt.gov.tr, [Erişim Tarihi, 15.05.2007].
• Durkaya, Mehmet (2002), “Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Talep Yönlü Analizi”, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Trabzon.
• Einarsson, Tor and Milton Harrison Marquis (2001), “Fiscal Policy and Human Capital Accumulation in a Home Production Economy”, Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol.1, Article 2, Berkeley Electronic Press.
• Engle, Robert F. and Clive W. J. Granger (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, Vol.55, pp.251–276.
• Ermisch, John F. (1990), “The Background: Housing Trends and Issues Arising from Them”, Housing and the National Economy, J. F. Ermish (Ed.), Aldershot: Avebury Gower for the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
• Ermisch, John F. (1996), “The Demand for Housing in Britain and Population Ageing: Microeconometric Evidence”, Economica, New Series, Vol. 63, No. 251, pp.383–404.
• Fisher, Jonas D.M. (2007), “Why Does Household Investment Lead Business Investment Over the Business Cycle?”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.115, s.141–168.
• Fitöz, Esra (2008), “Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Belirleyicileri: Ampirik Bir Uygulama”, (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi), Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi, SBE.
• Friedman, Benjamin M. and Kenneth N. Kuttner (1993), “Economic Activity and The Short Term Credit Markets: An Analysis of Prices and Quantities, Brookings Paper on Economic Activities 2, pp.193–285.
• Gelfand, Jack E. (1966), “The Credit Elasticity of Lower-Middle Income Housing Demand”, Land Economics, Vol.42, No.4, pp.464–472.
• Godfrey, Leslie George (1978), “Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables”, Econometrica, Vol.46, pp.1293–1302.
• Goetzmann, William N. and Eduardas Volaitis (2006), “Simulating Real Estate in the Investment Portfolio: Model Uncertainty and Inflation Hedging”, Yale International Center for Finance Working Paper, No. 06–04, pp.1–39.
• Goodman, Allen C. (2005), “Central Cities and Housing Supply: Growth and Decline in US Cities”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol.14, No.4, pp.315–335.
• Greenwood, J. and Z. Hercowitz (1991), “The Allocation of Capital and The Time Over The Business Cycle”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.99, pp.1188– 1214.
• Hausman, Jerry A. and David A. Wise (1980), “Discontinuous Budget Constraints and Estimation: The Demand for Housing”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol.47, No.1, pp.75–96.
• Iacoviello, Matteo and Raoul Minetti (2000), “The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy and Housing Markets: International Empirical Evidence”, Bank of Finland Working Paper, No:14/2000.
• Jin, Yi and Zhixiong Zeng (2007), “Real Estate and Optimal Public Policy in a Credit- Constrained Economy”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 16, No: 2, pp.143– 166.
• Johansen, Sİren and Katarina Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferences on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.52, pp.169–210.
• Kartman, Arthur E. (1972), “New Evidence on the Demand for Housing”, Southern Economic Journal, Vol.38, No.4, pp.525–530.
• Lee, Tong Hun (1963), “Demand for Housing: A Cross-Section Analysis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.45, No.2, pp.190–196.
• Leung, Charles (2004), “Macroeconomics and Housing: A Review of Literature,” Journal of Housing Economics, Vol.13, No.4, pp.249–267.
• MacKinnon, James G. (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.11, pp.601–618.
• Mankiw, N. Gregory and David N. Weil (1989), “The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.19, pp.235– 258.
• Martin, Preston (1966), “Aggregate Housing Demand: Test Model, Southern California”, Land Economics, Vol.42, No.4, pp. 503–513.
• Matsuyama, Kiminori (1990); “The Mathematical Appendix to Residential Investment and The Current Account”, Discussion Papers 875, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
• Mera, Koichi and Bertrand Renaud (2001), “Real Estate Booms and the Financial Crisis”, Asia’s Financial Crisis and the Role of Real Estate, (Eds.Koichi Mera and Bertrand Renaud), M.E. Sharpe Press, USA.
• Murray, Michael P. (1983), “Subsidized and Unsubsidized Housing Starts: 1961-1977”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.64, No.4, pp.590-597.
• Nordvik, Viggo (2006); “Selective Housing Policy in Local Housing Markets and The Supply of Housing”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol.15, No.4, pp.279–292.
• Painter, Gary and Christian L. Redfearn (2002), “The Role of Interest Rates in Influencing Long-Run Homeownership Rates,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.25, No.2-3, pp.243-267.
• Poterba, James M. (1984); “Tax Subsidies to Owner Occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.99, No.4, pp.729–752.
• Quigley, John M. (2001); “Real Estate and The Asian Crisis”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol.10, No.2, pp.129–161.
• Tarı, Recep, (2006), Ekonometri, 4. Baskı, İstanbul: Avcı Ofset.
• Tiwari, Piyush ( 2000), “Housing Demand in Tokyo”, International Real Estate Review, Vol.3, No.1, pp. 65–92.
• Topel, Robert and Shermin Rosen (1988), “Housing Investment in United States”, Journal Political Economy, Vol.96, No.4, pp.718–740.
• Trimbath, Susanne and Juan Montoya (2002), “A New Kind of Gold? Investment in Housing under Economic Uncertainty”, Milken Institute, Working Paper Series, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=316704, [Erişim Tarihi 08.06.2007].
• TCMB, Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS), http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/, [Erişim Tarihi, 07.08.2008.
• TÜİK, Hane Halkı İşgücü Anketi, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/, [Erişim Tarihi, 28.05.2007].
• TÜİK, İstatistik Göstergeler 1923-2006, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/yillik/Ist_gostergeler. pdf.