THE EFFECTS TO TURKISH BANKING SECTORS OF FOREIGN CAPITAL MOVEMENTS: 1990-2007 PERIOD CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Yıl 2009, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 9, 19 - 33, 01.06.2009

Salih Barışık Aykut Şarkgüneşi

Öz

An increase has been observed in the amount of foreign capital in Turkey. At this study, The effects of foreign capital on to banks’ credits borrowed from abroad, bank assets, banks’, tangible assets investments, total deposits, net capitals, lend credits to private sectors by banks were analyzed with Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the test results, both direct investment and portfolio investment have had positive effect on net capitals and tangible asset investments of banks. It is also observed that banks have strengthened their capital structure through with foreign capital inflow. On the contrary, it was found that foreign capital has not affected banks’ credits to private sectors yet

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Capital, Banking Sector, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

Yabancı Sermaye Hareketlerinin Türk Bankacılık Sektörüne Etkileri 1990-2007 Dönemi Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Türkiye’de yabancı sermaye rakamlarında bir artış gözlenmektedir. Bu çalışmada, yabancı sermayenin bankacılık sektörünün yurtdışından kullandıkları kredilere, banka aktiflerine, bankaların menkul değer yatırımlarına, mevduat toplamına, banka özkaynaklarına, özel sektöre kullandırdıkları kredilere etkisi Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Test sonuçlarına göre, hem doğrudan yatırımlar hem de portföy yatırımları bankaların özkaynaklarını ve menkul değer yatırımlarını olumlu etkilemektedir. Bankaların yabancı sermaye girişleri ile sermayelerini güçlendirdiği gözlenmektedir. Diğer yandan yabancı sermayenin henüz bankaların verdikleri kredileri etkileyemediği gözlenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yabancı Sermaye, Bankacılık Sektörü, Toda-Yamamoto

Kaynakça

• Altınay, Galip and Erdal Karagöl (2004), “Structural Break, Unit Root, and the Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey”, Energy Economics, Vol. 26, pp. 985-994.
• Altınkemer, Melike (1998), “Capital Inflows and Central Bank’s Policy Response”, TCMB Araştırma Departmanı, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/discus /dpaper47.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.05.2007).
• Arias, E. Fernandez and P. J. Montiel (1999), “The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: Prospects and Policy Response”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.1473.
• Arias, E. Fernandez (1994), “The New Wave of Private Capital Inflows”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 1312.
• Aysan, Ahmet Faruk ve Pınar Şanlı Ceyhan (2007), “Why do Foreign Banks Invest in Turkey?”, MPRA Paper, No. 5491, November.
• Berument Hakan ve Nergiz Dinçer; (2004), “Do Capital Flows Improve Macroeconomic Performance In Emerging Markets?: The Turkish Experience”, http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~berument/emft04.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.05.2006).
• Çakar, Vesile (2003), Yabancı Sermayeli Banka Girişleri ve Ulusal Bankacılık Sektörleri Üzerindeki Etkileri. TCMB Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, TCMB Bankacılık ve Finansal Kuruluşlar Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
• Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman and Carmen Reinhart (1993), “Capital Inflows to Latin America: The Role of External Factors,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40, pp. 108-151.
• Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman and Carmen Reinhart (1996), “Inflows Of Capital to Developing Countries in The 1990s,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 10, No.1, pp. 123-139.
• Çeviş, İsmail ve Cem Kadılar (2001), “The Analysis Of The Short-Term Capital Movements By Using The VAR Model: The Case Of Turkey”, http://yunus.hacettepe. edu.tr/~kadilar/pakistan.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 03.04.2006).
• Choi Kyongwook and Eric Zivot (2007), “Long Memory and Structural Changes in the Forward Discount: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 26, pp. 342-363.
• Claessens, Stijin and Thomas C. Glaessner (1998), “Internationalization of Financial Services in Asia”, Investment Liberalization and Financial Reform in the Asia-Pasific Region Conference, August 29-31. Sydney, Australia.
• Claessens, Stijn, Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt and Harry Huinzinga (2001), “How Does Foreign Entry Affect the Domestic Banking Market?”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 25, pp. 891-911.
• Clarke, George Cull, Robert, D’amato Laura and Andrea Molinari (1999), “The Effect of Foreign Entry on Argentina’s Domestic Banking Sector”, World Bank Working Paper 2158.
• Dages, B. Gerard, Linda Goldberg and Daniel Kinney (2000), “Foreign and Domestic Bank Participation in Emerging Markets: Lessons from Mexico and Argentina”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Economic Policy Review, September, pp. 17-36.
• Denizer, Cevdet (1999), “Foreign Entry in Turkey’s Banking Sector, 1980-1997”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No: 2462, November.
• Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller; (1979), “Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp. 251-276.
• Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root,” Econometrica, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 1057-1072.
• Enders, Walters and C. W. J. Granger; (1998), “Unit-Root Tests And Asymmetric Adjustment With An Example Using The Term Structure Of Interest Rates,” Journal Of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 304-311.
• Engle, Robert F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), “Cointegration and Error- Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, Vol. 55, pp. 251-263.
• Etokova, Olena, (2006), “Case Study Foreign Capital Entry to Banking System of Economies in Transition: Prospects for Ukraine”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics”, Vol. 6, www.eurojournals.com/finance.htm, (Erişim Tarihi: 28.10.2008).
• Gazioğlu, Saziye ve Ülkem Bağdaş (2007), “Investment Opportunities for Foreign Capital and Economic Fragility in Turkey”, METU, Studies in Developmet, December.
• Gujarati, Danomar N. (2005), Temel Ekonometri, (Çev.: Ü. Şenesen ve G. Şenesen), Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
• IMF (2007), International Financial Statistics, Online Database, www.imf.org (Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2008).
• İnsel, Aysu ve Nesrin Sungur (2003), “Sermaye Akımlarının Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği-1989:III- 1999:IV,” Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, Tartışma Metni, 2003/8.
• Islam Q. Muhammed (2001), “Structural Break, Unit Root, and the Causality between Government Expenditures and Revenues”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 8, pp. 565-567.
• Kurt, Çiğdem (2006), “Bankacılık Sektörünün Ekonomiye Yabancı Kaynak Kazandırmadaki Rolü,” Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
• Magri, Silvia, Alessandra Mori and Paolo Rossi, (2004), “The Entry and the Activity Level of Foreign Banks in Italy: An Analysis of Determinants”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 25, No:5, pp. 1295-1310.
• McKinnon, Ronald I., (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington D.C. Brookings Institution.
• Perron Pierre, (1990), “Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean”, Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, Vol. 8, pp.153-162.
• Perron, Pierre (1989), “Ther Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, Vol. 57, No. 6, pp. 1631-1401.
• Petreski, Marjan, (2006), “Entry of Bank Capital in Developing Economies: Measuring Profit & Cost Efficiency”, Journal of Capital Markets: Asset Pricing and Valuation, Working Paper Series, Vol. 10, No. 31, pp. 1-13.
• Tarı, Recep (2005), Ekonometri, 3. Baskı, Avcı Ofset, İstanbul.
• TCMB (2008), Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, http://tcmbf40.tcmb.gov.tr/cbt.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2008).
• Toda, Hiro Y. and Taku Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Process”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 66, pp. 225-250.
• Yayla, Münür, Yasemin Türker Kaya ve İbrahim Ekmen, (2005), Bankacılık Sektörüne Yabancı Girişi: Küresel Gelişmeler ve Türkiye, Bankacılık Denetleme ve Düzenleme Kurumu, ARD Çalışma Raporları, No: 2005/6.
• Yeldan, Erinç (2003), Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi Bölüşüm, Birikim ve Büyüme, 8. Baskı, İletişim Yayınları, İstanbul.
• Ying, Yung-Hsiang and Y. Kim (2001), “An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows: The Case of Korea and Mexico,” Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 67, No. 4, pp. 954-968.
• Zivot, Eric and Donald W.K. Andrews (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 251-270.