BÖLGESEL GENÇ İŞSİZLİĞİNİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: BİREYLER ÜZERİNDE MİKRO KANITLAR

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1, 16 - 42, 25.03.2024

Gülsüm Uslu , Halim Tatlı

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1374411

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin TRB1 Bölgesi'nde bölgesel genç işsizliğini etkileyen bireysel faktörleri mikro düzeyde incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Veri toplama yöntemi olarak yüz yüze anket tekniği kullanılmıştır. Genç işsizliğine yönelik hazırlanan anketler, TRB1 Bölgesi'nde 15-24 yaş grubundaki 400 genç bireye tesadüfi örnekleme yöntemiyle uygulanmıştır. Bu anketlerden elde edilen veriler lojistik regresyon yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bağımsız değişkenler, bağımsız değişken seçimi hipotezinin sonuçlarına göre seçilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda lise, üniversite ve yüksek lisans mezunu gençlerin işsiz kalma ihtimalinin ortaokul mezunu gençlere göre daha düşük olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca babası ilkokul, ortaokul, lise ve üniversite mezunu olan gençlerin işsiz kalma olasılığı, babası okuma yazma bilmeyen gençlere göre daha düşüktür. Genel olarak insanlara güvenen gençlerin işsiz kalma olasılığı, insanlara güvenmeyen gençlere göre daha az olduğu saptanmıştır. Ayrıca gencin ailesinin kişi başına düşen gelirinin de gencin işsiz kalma olasılığını azaltmada olumlu etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Gençlerin cinsiyet ve sağlık durumu ile gençlerin işsiz olma olasılığı arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Genç İşsizliği, Katılım ve Genç Işsizliği, Güven vee Genç İşsizliği, Sağlik ve Genç İşsizliği

FACTORS AFFECTING REGIONAL YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT: MICRO-EVIDENCE ON INDIVIDUALS

Öz

This study aims to investigate the individual factors affecting regional youth unemployment in Turkey’s TRB1 Region at the micro level. A face-to-face survey technique was used as the data collection method. Surveys prepared for youth unemployment were applied to 400 young people aged 15-24 in the TRB1 Region using a random sampling method. The data obtained from the surveys were analyzed using logistic regression. Independent variables were selected based on the results of the independent variable selection hypothesis. As a result of the analysis, it was revealed that the probability of unemployment for young people who are high school, university, and graduate school graduates is lower than that of young people who are middle school graduates. The probability of unemployment for young people whose fathers are elementary, middle school, high school, and university graduates is lower than that of young people whose fathers are illiterate. In general, young people who trust people are less likely to be unemployed than young people who do not trust people. Also, the youth's family per capita income was found to have a positive effect on reducing their unemployment probability. No significant relationship was found between gender, health status, and youth unemployment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Youth Unemployment, Participation and Youth Unemployment, Trust and Youth Unemployment, Health and Youth Unemployment

Kaynakça

• Abdioğlu, Z., & Albayrak, N. (2018). Youth unemployment, education, and economic growth: The case of Turkey. Global Journal of Economics and Business Studies, 7(13), 8-20.
• Adıgüzel, M. (2021). The factors causing youth unemployment in Turkey. Econharran, 5(8), 100-129.
• Akbulut, Ö., & Yıldız, N. (1999). İstatistik analizlerde temel formüller ve tablolar. Erzurum: Aktif Yayınevi
• Akerlof, G., & Shiller, R. (2009). Animal spirits: How human psychology drives the economy and why it matters for global capitalism. USA: Princeton University Press.
• Akhtar, S., & Shahnaz, L. (2006). Understanding the youth unemployment conundrum in Pakistan: Preliminary empirical macro-micro analysis. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 49(2), 233-248.
• Akyüz, A. M., & Durmuş, İ. (2022). The role of unemployment anxiety, career goals and personal development variables in making sense of university student’s lives. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 20(2), 23-53. http://dx.doi.org/10.11611/yead.953466.
• Alawad, A., Kreishan, F., & Selim, M. (2020). Determinants of youth unemployment: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 8(4), 152-165.
• Anyanwu, J. C. (2013). Characteristics and macroeconomic determinants of youth employment in Africa. African Development Review, 25(2), 107-129.
• Apaydın, F. (2018). A comparative analysis of the characteristics of unemployment in Turkey. Journal of Süleyman Demirel University Institute of Social Sciences, 30(1), 159-200.
• Arpaia, A., & Curci, N. (2010). EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession. Retrieved from https://ams-forschungsnetzwerk.at/downloadpub/ecp405_en.pdf. Accessed 07.12.2022
• Ay, S. (2012). Reasons of unemployment in Turkey: An assessment on employment policies. Journal of Management and Economics, 19(2), 321-341.
• Azzolini L. (2021). The Scar effects of unemployment on electoral participation: Withdrawal and mobilization across European societies. European Sociological Review, 37(6), 1007–1026.
• Bal-Domańska, B. (2020). The situation of youth on the European labour markets—Econometric analyses, Acta Unive rsitatis Lodziensis Folia Oeconomica, 2(347), 23–37.
• Bal-Domańska, B. (2022). The impact of macroeconomic and structural factors on the unemployment of young women and men. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55, 1141–1172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09341-9
• Baussola, B., & Mussida, C. (2017). Regional and gender differentials in the persistence of unemployment in Europe. International Review of Applied Economics, 31(2), 173–190.
• Bayrak, R., & Tatli, H. (2018). The determinants of youth unemployment: A panel data analysis of OECD countries. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 15(2), 231-248.
• Bayraktar, S., & İncekara, A. (2013). Profile of youth unemployment in Turkey. Journal of Labour of Relations, 4(1), 15-38.
• Bell, D. N., & Blanchflower, D. G. (2011). Young people and the Great Recession. Oxford Review Economic Policy, 27(2), 241-267.
• Berhe, M. W. (2021). Empirical analysis of urban youth unemployment in Ethiopia. African Development Review, 33(1), 104-116.
• Berlingieri, F., Bonin H., & Sprietsma, M. (2014). Youth unemployment in Europe-Appraisal and policy options. Centre for European Economic Research Zentrum für Europäische Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW).
• Biçerli, M. K. (2011). We have to re-structure our higher education system in parallel with the developments in the labor market. Journal of Higher Education and Science, 1(3), 122-127. https://10.5961/jhes.2011.018
• Bouzid, B. N. (2016). Dynamic relationship between corruption and youth unemployment: Empirical evidences from a system GMM approach. (Policy Research Working Paper, World Bank Group. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7842.
• Brand, J. E., & Burgard, S. (2008). Job displacement and social participation over the lifecourse: Findings for a cohort of joiners. Social Forces. 87(1), 211-242.
• Bruno, G. S. F., Choudhry, M. T., Marelli, E., & Signorelli, M. (2014). Youth unemployment: Key determinants and the impact of crises, In Disadvantaged Workers, AIEL Series in Labour Economics, 7, 121-148. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04376-0_7.
• Camarota, S. A., (1997). The effect of immigration on low-skilled native workers: Evidence from the June 1991 Current Population Survey. Social Science Quarterly, 78(2), 417‒ 431.
• Caporale, G. M., & Gil-Alana, L. (2014). Youth unemployment in Europe: Persistence and macroeconomic determinants. Comparative Economic Studies, 56(4), 581-591.
• Çetinkaya, E. (2008). Türkiye’de gençlerin kayıt dışı istihdamdaki durumu. Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2, 115-125. Choudhry, M. T., Marelli, E., & Signorelli, M. (2012). Youth unemployment rate and impact of financial crises. International Journal of Manpower, 33(1), 76-95.
• Çizel, R. B., Güzeller, C. O., & Mütevellioğlu, N. (2011). The Psychological consequences of unemployment: The case of Antalya. Journal of Labour of Relations, 2(1), 26-41.
• Çondur, F., & Bölükbaş, M. (2014). A study on labor market and the relationship between youth unemployment and economic growth in Turkey. Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 47(2), 77-93.
• Corrado, G., & Rossetti, F. (2018). Public corruption: A study across regions in Italy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40(6), 1126-1139.
• Coşan, B., Şahin, Ş., & Yörübulut, M. Ç. (2017). Chronic problematic of global economy youth unemployment: Comparision of Turkey-Southern Europe (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece) countries. Journal of Gazi University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 2017(2020), 200-238.
• Cullen, J., Ryan, G. M., Cullen, K. M., Ronyane, T., & Wynne, R. F. (1987). Unemployed youth and health: Findings from the Pilot Phase of a Longitudinal Study. Social Science and Medicine, 25, 133-46.
• Dagume, M. A., & Gyekye, A. (2016). Determinants of youth unemployment in South Africa: Evidence from the Vhembe district of Limpopo province. Environmental Economics, 7(4), 59-67.
• De Lange, M., Gesthuizen, M., & Wolbers, M. H. (2014). Youth labour market integration across Europe: The impact of cyclical, structural, and institutional characteristics. European Societies, 16(2), 194-212. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2013.821621.
• Demidova, O., & Signorelli, M. (2012). Determinants of youth unemployment in Russian regions, Post-Communist Economies, 24(2), 191-217, https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2012.675155.
• Dieckhoff, M., & Gash, V. (2015). Unemployed and alone? Unemployment and social participation in Europe. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 35(1/2) 67-90.
• Dietrich, H., & Möller, J. (2016). Youth unemployment in Europe–business cycle and institutional effects. International Economics and Economic Policy, 13(1), 5-25.
• Doğan, E.M., & Tatlı, H. (2013). Yoksulluk ve sosyal sermaye. Ankara: Nobel.
• Evans, J., & Repper, J. (2000). Employment, social inclusion and mental, health. Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing, 7(1), 15-24.
• Fakih, A., Haimoun, N., & Kassem, M. (2020). Youth unemployment, gender and institutions during transition: Evidence from the Arab Spring. Social Indicators Research, 150, 311–336. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02300-3
• Farmer, R. E. (2013). Animal spirits, financial crises and persistent unemployment. The Economic Journal, 123(568), 317-340.
• Farmer, R. E. (2015). The stock market crash really did cause The Great Recession. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(5), 617-633.
• Farzanegan, M. R., & Gholipour, H. F. (2021). Youth unemployment and quality of education in the MENA: An empirical investigation. In M. S. Ben Ali, (Ed.). Economic development in the mena region. Perspectives on development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (pp. 65–84). Cham: Springer.
• Focacci, C. N. (2020). “You reap what you sow”: Do active labour market policies always increase job security? Evidence from the youth guarantee, European Journal of Law and Economics, 49(3), 373-429, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-020-09654-6.
• Giugni, M., Lorenzini, J., Cinalli, M., Lahusen, C., & Baglioni, S. (2022). Young People and Long-Term Unemployment: Personal, Social, and Political Effects. USA: Routledge.
• Gordo, L. R. (2006). Effects of short- and long-term unemployment on health satisfaction: Evidence from German data. Applied Economics, 38(20), 2335-2350.
• Görlich, D., Stepanok, I., & Al-Hussami, F. (2013). Youth unemployment in Europe and The World: Causes, consequences and solutions. Kiel: Kiel Policy Brief, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
• Granovetter, M. (1973). The strength of weak ties. American Journal of Sociology, 78(6), 1360-1380.
• Gregg, P. (2001). The impact of youth unemployment on adult unemployment in the NCDS. The Economic Journal, 111, 626-653. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00666
• Groh, M., Krishnan, N., McKenzie, D., & Vishwanath, T. (2016). The impact of soft skills training on female youth employment: Evidence from a randomized experiment in Jordan, IZA Journal of Labor and Development, 5(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40175-016-0055-9.
• Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Temel ekonometri, (Ü. Şenesen, & G. G. Şenesen, Çev.). İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
• Gülel, F. E., & Tunca, H. (2017). Investigation of youth unemployment in Turkey with spatial interaction. Unregistered Employment. London, The United Kingdom: IJOPEC Publication.
• Günaydın, D., & Çetin, M. (2015). The main macroeconomic determinants of youth unemployment: An empirical analysis. Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 22, 17-34.
• Güriş, S., & Yaman, B. (2018). Analysis with panel data models of factors affecting unemployment in OECD countries. Social Sciences Research Journal, 7(1), 136-146.
• Highton, B., & Wolfinger, R. E. (2001). The first seven years of the political life cycle. American Journal of Political Science, 45(1), 202-209.
• Hosmer, D. W., & Lemeshow, S. (1998). Applied logistic regression. USA: John Wiley & Sons. ILO. (2022). Global Employment Trends for Youth 2022. Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_853321/lang--en/index.htm Accessed 23.08.2022 Ingham, M. (1989). Education and youth unemployment: A reappraisal. Journal of Economic Studies, 16(3), 27-39. https://doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000000131
• Inozemtsev, E. (2016). The youth unemployment in Russia and Germany: A spatial panel data analysis. Asian Journal of Science and Technology, 7(11), 3700-3706.
• Islamoğlu, E. (2014). An investigation on the reasons and consequences of unemployment in Sakarya. Journal of Politics Economics and Management Studies, 2(3), 123-137.
• Jimeno, J. F., & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, D. (2002). Youth unemployment in the OECD: Demographic shifts, labour market institutions, and macroeconomic shock. (Working Paper Series 155, European Central Bank). Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.357960 Accessed 20.12.2022
• Kang, Y. D. (2021). Determinants of youth unemployment: Empirical analysis of OECD and EU member countries in 2000-2017, Journal of Economic Development, 46(3), 109-131.
• Kennedy, P. (2006). Ekonometri kılavuzu. (M. Sarımeseli & Ş. Açıkgöz, Çev.). Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmillan and Co., Ltd.
• Krejcie, R. V., & Morgan, D. W. (1970). Determining sample size for research activities. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 30(3), 607-610.
• Lakey, J., Mukherjee, A., & White, M. (2001). Youth unemployment, labour market programmes and health. London: Policy Studies Institute.
• Lindström, M. (2009). Psychosocial work conditions, unemployment, and generalized trust in other people: A population-based study of psychosocial health determinants. The Social Science Journal, 46(3), 584-593.
• Marelli, E., & Vakulenko, E. (2016). Youth unemployment in Italy and Russia: Aggregate trends and the role of individual determinants. The Economic and Labour Relations Review, 27(3), 387-405. https://doi.org/10.1177/10353046166579.
• Martinez-Vazquez, J., Arze, F., & Javierveboex, J. (2006). Corruption, fiscal policy and fiscal management: Fiscal reform in support of trade liberalization. USA: ID Press.
• Mathers, C. D. (1996). Health Differentials among young Australian adults, health monitoring series No. 4, Canberra: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.
• Ministry of Health. (2022). Turkish Ministry of Health General Directorate of Public Health. Retrieved from https://hsgm.saglik.gov.tr/tr/beslenmehareket-hesaplamalar Accessed 01.09.2022,
• Mlatsheni, C. (2007). A survey of youth labour market trends. Draft paper prepared for Human Sciences Research Council. Cape Town: Sage, 1-26.
• Montgomery, S. M., Bartley, M. J., Cook, D. G., & Wadsworth, M. (1996). Health and social precursors of unemployment in young men in Great Britain. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 50(4), 415-422. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech.50.4.415.
• Msigwa, R., & Kipesha, E. F. (2013). Determinants of youth unemployment in developing countries: Evidences from Tanzania. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(14), 67-76.
• Murat, S., & Şahin, L. (2011). Nedenleri ve sonuçları bakımından gençler arasında yaygınlaşan işsizlik. Istanbul Journal of Sociological Studies, 44, 1-48.
• Mütevellioğlu, N., & Aksoy, B. (2010). Işsizlikle mücadelede il istihdam ve mesleki eğitim kurullarinin işlevi. Çalışma İlişkileri Dergisi, 1(1), 13-35.
• Ndagijimana, J., Nzasingizimana, T., & Heshmati, A. (2018). An analysis of the determinants of youth employment in Rwanda. UKH Journal of Social Sciences, 2(2), 1-10.
• OECD. (2022). Data. Retrieved from https://data.oecd.org/unemp/youth-unemployment-rate.htm Accessed 01.09.2022
• O'Higgins, N. (2012). This time it's different? Youth labour markets during The Great Recession. Comparative Economic Studies, 54(2), 395-412.
• Okicic, J., Kokorovic Jukan, M., Pilav-Velic, A., & Jahic, H. (2020). Impact of individual and household characteristics on the employment probability among youth from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Economic Research-Ekonomska İstraživanja, 33(1), 2620-2632.
• Özer, H. (2004). Nitel değişkenli ekonometrik modeller teori ve bir uygulama. Ankara: Nobel Yayın ve Dağıtım. Öztürk, M., & Altuntepe, N. (2008). Adaptation of the migrants to urban life and labour market in Turkey: A field study. Journal of Yasar University, 3(11), 1587-1625.
• Pan, W. F. (2018). Unemployment and confidence in Canada: Evidence from national and regional level data. Economics Bulletin, 38(2), 1111-1123.
• Parisi, M. L., Marell E., & Demidova, O. (2018). Youth unemployment, labour productivity and the evolution of the labour markets in Europe. In F. E, Caroleo, O., Demidova, E., M., & Marelli Signorelli, (Eds.). Young people and the labour market: A Comparative perspective (pp. 65-81). UK: Routledge, Abingdon, Oxon.
• Pastore, F., & Giuliani, L. (2015). The Determinants of youth unemployment. A Panel Data Analysis. Discussion Papers 2_2015, CRISEI, Italy: University of Naples "Parthenope", Retrieved from http://www.ub.edu/aqr/arxiu/Paper_Pastore-Giuliani.pdf Accessed 07.12.2022.
• Paugam, S., & Russell, H. (2000). The Effects of employment precarity and unemployment on social isolation. In D. Gallie, & S. Paugam, (Eds.). Welfare regimes and the experience of unemployment in Europe (p. 243-264). The United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
• Perugini, C., & Signorelli, M. (2010). Youth labour market performance in European Regions. Economic Change and Restructuring, 43(2), 151-185.
• Pozzoli, D. (2009). The transition to work for Italian university graduates. Labour, 23(1), 131-169. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9914.2008.00442.x
• Putun, M., Karatas, A. S., & Akyildiz, İ. E. (2017). The economic consequences of the youth unemployment case in EU countries: A critical analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 9(1), 77-99.
• Ralph, A., & Arora, A. (2023). A bibliometric study of reference literature on youth unemployment, Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy, 17(6), 1338-1367. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEC-04-2022-0062
• Sayın, F. (2011). Analysis of the impact of the education and the growth in Turkey from 1988 to 2010 on youth unemployment. Dokuz Eylul University The Journal of Graduate School of Social Sciences, 13(4), 33-53.
• Scott, W. J., & Acock, A. C. (1979). Socioeconomic status, unemployment experience, and political participation: A disentangling of main and interaction effects. Political Behavior, 1(4), 361-381.
• Selim, S., Kırgel, D., Çelik, O., & Yazıcıoğlu, H. (2014). The socio-economic determinants of the unemployment in Turkey: Panel data analysis. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 10(22), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.11122/ijmeb.2013.9.19.459
• Sönmez, F. D., & Özerkek, Y. (2018). Determinants of regional youth unemployment In Turkey. Marmara University Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 40(2), 297-318. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.511033
• Taris, T. W. (2002). Unemployment and mental health: A longitudinal perspective. International Journal of Stress Management, 9(1), 43-57.
• Tegegne, T. K. (2019). Socioeconomic determinants of youth unemployment in Ethiopia, the case of Wolaita Sodo Town Southern Ethiopia. Journal of Economics and Sustainable, 9(10), 38-45. https://doi.org/10.7176/JESD/10-23-05
• Tomic, I. (2018). What Drives youth unemployment in Europe? Economic vs non-economic determinants. International Labour Review, 157(3), 379- 408. https://doi.org/10.1111/ilr.12113
• TurkStat. (2021). Youth in Statistics. Retrieved from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Youth-in-Statistics-2020-37242&dil=2 Accessed 07.09.2022.
• TurkStat. (2022a). Labor Statistics (2014 and onwards). Retrieved from https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=72&locale=tr Accessed 25.09.2022
• TurkStat. (2022b). Regional Statistics. Retrieved from https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/bolgeselistatistik/degiskenlerUzerindenSorgula.do Accessed 07.09.2022. Ünlü, A., & Yıldız, K. (2021). Türkiye’de genç işsizlik sorunu ve çözüm önerileri. İçinde G. Sumer (Ed.). Iktisat alaninda seçilmiş konular, (s.139-154). İstanbul: Efe Akademi.
• Upward, R. (2002). Evaluating outcomes from the youth training scheme using matched firm-trainee data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(3), 277-306, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.00022.
• Uysal, D., & Erdoğan, S. (2003). The relationship between inflation and unemployment rate and the case of turkey (1980-2002). The Journal of Social Economic Research, 3(6), 35-47.
• Verick, S. (2009). Who is hit hardest during a financial crisis? The vulnerability of young men and women to unemployment in an economic downturn. IZA Discussion Paper.
• Viitanen, T. (1999). Estimating the probability of youth unemployment. An Extended Essay for a BsocSC in Economics and Statistics.
• World Bank (2018). Behavioral Solutions for Youth Unemployment: Behavioral solutions for youth unemployment. Retrieved from, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/265311532598490501/Behavioral-solutions-for-youth-unemployment Accessed 10.01.2024.
• World Bank. (2022). Data. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS Accessed 01.09.2022
• Wright, L., Head, J. A., & Jivraj, S. (2021). How robust is the association between youth unemployment and later mental health? An analysis of longitudinal data from English Schoolchildren. Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 78(8), 618-620.
• Ylistö, S., & Husu, H. M. (2021). Negative emotional consequences of labour market activation policies for long-term unemployed young adults in Finland, International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 41(13/14), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSSP-02-2021-0039.