Araştırma Makalesi
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Optimal Public Expenditure Ratio: An Application for Türkiye

Yıl 2024, , 175 - 194, 30.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.30927/ijpf.1329893

Öz

When the data of several countries are analysed, it is generally observed that the share of public sector in the economy has increased over time. In the literature, one aspect of the issue is addressed with the reasons for this increase, whereas explaining the effect of public expenditures on growth is addressed from another perspective. The existence of a non-linear relationship between public expenditure and growth raises the question of the rate at which the relationship changes the direction. This is because the growth rate will increase with the expenditures made until this rate is reached, while the growth rate will decrease if this rate is exceeded. Within the scope of this study, the validity of the Armey curve, which argues that there is a non-linear relationship between public expenditure and growth, has been tested with the data between 1991 and 2021 and the optimal public expenditure ratio has been investigated. As a result, it was found that the Armey curve is valid and the rate of public expenditure that maximises growth is approximately 12%. Therefore, it can be said that reducing public expenditures which are above the optimal ratio during the period will have a positive effect on the growth rate.

Kaynakça

  • Altunç, Ö. F., & Aydın, C. (2013). The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria. Social and Behavioral Sciences, 66-75.
  • Altunç, Ö., & Aydın , C. (2012). Türkiye'de Kamu Sektörü Büyüklüğü ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ampirik Analizi. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt 23, Sayı 82, 79-98.
  • Asimakopoulos, S., & Karavias, Y. (2016). The Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth: A Threshold Analysis. Economics Letters, 65-68.
  • Balatsky, E. (2012). Wagner's Law, The Armey-Rahn Curve, and The Paradox of Wealth. Problems of Economic Transition, vol. 54, No. 12, 40-54.
  • Barro, R. J. (1988). Government Spending In A Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Cambridge: NBER Working Paper Series, No.2588.
  • Bozma, G., Başar, S., & Eren, M. (2019). Investigating Validation of Armey Curve Hypothesis for G7 Countries using ARDL Model. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 20 (1), 49-59.
  • Branson, J., & Lovell, C. K. (2001). A Growth Maximising Tax Structure for New Zealand. International Tax and Public Finance, 8, 129-146.
  • Chiou-Wei, S.-Z., Zhu, Z., & Kuo, Y.-H. (2010). Government Size and Economic Growth: An Application of the Smooth Transition Regression Model. Applied Economic Letters, 1405-1415.
  • De Mendonça, H. F., & Cacicedo, T. (2015). Size of Government and Economic Growth in The Largest Latin American Country. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 22, No. 11, 904-910.
  • De Witte, K., & Moesen, W. (2010). Sizing the Government. Public Choice, 39-55.
  • Facchini, F., & Melki, M. (2013). Efficient Government Size: France in The 20th Century. European Journal of Political Economy, 31, 1-14.
  • Göçer, İ. (2015). Okun Yasası: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Yıl 1, Cilt 1, Sayı 1, 1-12.
  • Herath, S. (2012). Size of Government and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Analysis. Economic Annals, 7-30.
  • Jain, N., & Sinha, N. (2022). Re-visiting the Armey Curve Hypothesis: An Empirical Evidence from India. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, 11(2), 168-184.
  • Kim, M. H., Han, Y., Tierney, H. L., & Lopez, E. Y. (2020). The Economic Consequences of Government Spending in South Korea. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 40, Issue 1, 308-315.
  • Lupu, D., & Asandului, M. (2017). The Nexus between Economic Growth and Public Spending in Eastern European Countries. Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics, 28(2), 155-161.
  • Malcolm, X. (2017). Investigating the Optimal Level of Government Spending to Maximize Economic Growth in Jamaica. Fiscal & Economic Programme Monitoring Department Bank of Jamaica.
  • Mavrov, H. (2007). The Size of Government Expenditure and the Rate of Economic Growth in Bulgaria. Economic Alternatives, Issue 1, 53-63.
  • Mutaşcu, M., & Miloş, M. (2009). Optimal Size of Government Spending. The Case of European Union Member States. Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, 11(1), 447-456.
  • Pamuk, Y., & Dündar, U. (2016). Kamu Harcamalarının Optimal Boyutu. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt 34, Sayı 3, 23-50.
  • Pekçağlayan, B., & Erden, L. (2021). Zaman-Değişen Okun Katsayısı ve Belirleyicileri: Ampirik Bir Analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 101-113.
  • Pevcin, P. (2004a). Does Optimal Size of Government Spending Exist? European Group of Public Administration 2004 Annual Conference. University of Ljubljana.
  • Pevcin, P. (2004b). Economic Output and The Optimal Size of Government. Economic and Business Review, 213-227.
  • Samimi, A. J., Nademi, Y., & Zobeiri, H. (2010). Government Size & Economic Growth: A Threshold Regression Approach in Selected Islamic Countries. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 1-3.
  • Turan, T. (2014). Optimal Size of Government in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 286-294.
  • Varol İyidoğan, P., & Turan, T. (2017). Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis. Prague Economic Papers, 26(2), 142-154.
  • Vedder, R. K., & Gallaway, L. E. (1998). Government Size and Economic Growth. Joint Economic Committee, (s. 1-15).
  • Yamak, R., & Erdem, H. F. (2018). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Armey Eğrisi Geçerli Midir? Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZI Özel Sayısı, 335-346.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020). Ekonometri. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
  • Yüksel, C. (2019). The Size of The Public Sector and The Armey Curve: The Case of Turkey. M. Tas, & A. Gerçek içinde, Critical Debates in Public Finance (s. 137-154). Peter Lang.

Optimal Kamu Harcaması Oranı: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2024, , 175 - 194, 30.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.30927/ijpf.1329893

Öz

Birçok ülkeye ait veriler incelendiğinde, genel olarak ekonomi içerisinde kamu sektörü payının zaman içerisinde arttığı görülmektedir. Literatürde bu artışın nedenleri ile konu bir açıdan ele alınırken; kamu harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisini açıklamak da başka bir açıdan ele almaktadır. Kamu harcaması ve büyüme arasında doğrusal olmayan bir ilişkinin olduğunun tespit edilmesi beraberinde, ilişkinin yön değiştirdiği oranın ne olduğu sorusunu da gündeme getirmektedir. Zira bu orana ulaşıncaya kadar yapılan harcamalar büyüme oranını artırırken, bu oranın üzerine çıkılması halinde büyüme oranı azalacaktır. Bu çalışma kapsamında 1991 ile 2021 yılları arasındaki verilerle kamu harcaması ve büyüme arasında doğrusal olmayan bir ilişkinin olduğunu savunan Armey eğrisinin geçerliliği sınanmış ve optimal kamu harcaması oranının ne olduğu araştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak Armey eğrisinin geçerli olduğu ve büyümeyi azamileştiren kamu harcaması oranının yaklaşık olarak %12 olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu nedenle dönem içerisinde optimal oranın üzerinde olan kamu harcamalarını azaltmanın büyüme oranı üzerinde olumlu bir etki yaratacağı söylenebilir.

Kaynakça

  • Altunç, Ö. F., & Aydın, C. (2013). The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria. Social and Behavioral Sciences, 66-75.
  • Altunç, Ö., & Aydın , C. (2012). Türkiye'de Kamu Sektörü Büyüklüğü ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ampirik Analizi. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt 23, Sayı 82, 79-98.
  • Asimakopoulos, S., & Karavias, Y. (2016). The Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth: A Threshold Analysis. Economics Letters, 65-68.
  • Balatsky, E. (2012). Wagner's Law, The Armey-Rahn Curve, and The Paradox of Wealth. Problems of Economic Transition, vol. 54, No. 12, 40-54.
  • Barro, R. J. (1988). Government Spending In A Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Cambridge: NBER Working Paper Series, No.2588.
  • Bozma, G., Başar, S., & Eren, M. (2019). Investigating Validation of Armey Curve Hypothesis for G7 Countries using ARDL Model. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 20 (1), 49-59.
  • Branson, J., & Lovell, C. K. (2001). A Growth Maximising Tax Structure for New Zealand. International Tax and Public Finance, 8, 129-146.
  • Chiou-Wei, S.-Z., Zhu, Z., & Kuo, Y.-H. (2010). Government Size and Economic Growth: An Application of the Smooth Transition Regression Model. Applied Economic Letters, 1405-1415.
  • De Mendonça, H. F., & Cacicedo, T. (2015). Size of Government and Economic Growth in The Largest Latin American Country. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 22, No. 11, 904-910.
  • De Witte, K., & Moesen, W. (2010). Sizing the Government. Public Choice, 39-55.
  • Facchini, F., & Melki, M. (2013). Efficient Government Size: France in The 20th Century. European Journal of Political Economy, 31, 1-14.
  • Göçer, İ. (2015). Okun Yasası: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Yıl 1, Cilt 1, Sayı 1, 1-12.
  • Herath, S. (2012). Size of Government and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Analysis. Economic Annals, 7-30.
  • Jain, N., & Sinha, N. (2022). Re-visiting the Armey Curve Hypothesis: An Empirical Evidence from India. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, 11(2), 168-184.
  • Kim, M. H., Han, Y., Tierney, H. L., & Lopez, E. Y. (2020). The Economic Consequences of Government Spending in South Korea. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 40, Issue 1, 308-315.
  • Lupu, D., & Asandului, M. (2017). The Nexus between Economic Growth and Public Spending in Eastern European Countries. Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics, 28(2), 155-161.
  • Malcolm, X. (2017). Investigating the Optimal Level of Government Spending to Maximize Economic Growth in Jamaica. Fiscal & Economic Programme Monitoring Department Bank of Jamaica.
  • Mavrov, H. (2007). The Size of Government Expenditure and the Rate of Economic Growth in Bulgaria. Economic Alternatives, Issue 1, 53-63.
  • Mutaşcu, M., & Miloş, M. (2009). Optimal Size of Government Spending. The Case of European Union Member States. Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, 11(1), 447-456.
  • Pamuk, Y., & Dündar, U. (2016). Kamu Harcamalarının Optimal Boyutu. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt 34, Sayı 3, 23-50.
  • Pekçağlayan, B., & Erden, L. (2021). Zaman-Değişen Okun Katsayısı ve Belirleyicileri: Ampirik Bir Analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 101-113.
  • Pevcin, P. (2004a). Does Optimal Size of Government Spending Exist? European Group of Public Administration 2004 Annual Conference. University of Ljubljana.
  • Pevcin, P. (2004b). Economic Output and The Optimal Size of Government. Economic and Business Review, 213-227.
  • Samimi, A. J., Nademi, Y., & Zobeiri, H. (2010). Government Size & Economic Growth: A Threshold Regression Approach in Selected Islamic Countries. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 1-3.
  • Turan, T. (2014). Optimal Size of Government in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 286-294.
  • Varol İyidoğan, P., & Turan, T. (2017). Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis. Prague Economic Papers, 26(2), 142-154.
  • Vedder, R. K., & Gallaway, L. E. (1998). Government Size and Economic Growth. Joint Economic Committee, (s. 1-15).
  • Yamak, R., & Erdem, H. F. (2018). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Armey Eğrisi Geçerli Midir? Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZI Özel Sayısı, 335-346.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020). Ekonometri. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
  • Yüksel, C. (2019). The Size of The Public Sector and The Armey Curve: The Case of Turkey. M. Tas, & A. Gerçek içinde, Critical Debates in Public Finance (s. 137-154). Peter Lang.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Kamu Ekonomisi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Sibel Toptaş 0000-0003-3565-4525

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 19 Temmuz 2023
Kabul Tarihi 22 Mart 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024

Kaynak Göster

APA Toptaş, S. (2024). Optimal Kamu Harcaması Oranı: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama. International Journal of Public Finance, 9(1), 175-194. https://doi.org/10.30927/ijpf.1329893

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