Examination of Intelligence Cycles within the Frame of SWOT Analysis

Öz

In intelligence studies, the concept of the intelligence cycle often comes across. This concept which can be traced back to Clausewitz, actually defines the analysis process. Intelligence cycle generally criticized as; it is not beyond being theoretical, does not reflect the truth and is most likely used as a marketing tool. In addition to these criticisms, different or deficient aspects of each of the critics also subject to the criticism. Due to reasons arising from the criticism, developing and changing conditions, alternative versions of intelligence cycle transpired. In this study, fourteen different models used in intelligence studies, including linear and matrix-type analysis methods, which considered as alternative to the basic circular cycle structure, are discussed. In this framework, these cycle suggestions that either compliment or substitute each other are examined through SWOT analysis. With this analysis; their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and risks to the users irradiated. Although there is no doubt that the future analysis will be based on technology such as artificial intelligence, it has been tried to shed light on the analysis methods to be created with this study and the differences between the existing analysis systems.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Keywords: Intelligence
• Intelligence Cycle
• SWOT Analysis
• Discussions on Intelligence Cycle
• Re-Evaluation of Intelligence Cycles

İstihbarat Çarklarının SWOT Analizi Çerçevesinde İncelenmesi

Öz

İstihbarat çalışmalarında sıklıkla karşımıza istihbarat çarkı kavramı gelmektedir. Geçmişi Clausewitz’e kadar götürülebilen bu kavram aslında analiz sürecini tanımlamaktadır. İstihbarat çarkı genel olarak; teorik olmasından öteye gitmediği, gerçeği yansıtmadığı ve daha çok pazarlama aracı olarak kullanıldığı şeklinde eleştirilmektedir. Bu eleştirilerin yanında her birinin diğerine göre farklı veya eksik yönleri eleştiri konusu olmaktadır. Gerek eleştirilerden kaynaklanan sebeplerle gerekse gelişen ve değişen şartlar geleneksel istihbarat çarkının da eleştirilmesine ve alternatif çarkların önerilmesine neden olmuştur. Temelde döngüsel olan bu çark yapısına alternatif lineer ve matris tipi analiz yöntemleri de dahil olmak üzere bu çalışmamızda istihbarat çalışmalarında kullanılan farklı 14 model ele alınmıştır. Bu çerçevede birbirini tamamlayan veya ikame eden bu çark önerileri SWOT analizi ile incelenerek birbirine göre göre güçlü, zayıf yanları ile kullanıcılara sundukları fırsatlar ve ortaya koydukları risk ve tehlikeler bağlamında incelenmiştir. Geleceğin analizlerinin yapay zekâ gibi teknolojiye bağlı analizler olacağı konusunda şüphe olmamakla birlikte bu çalışma ile oluşturulacak analiz yöntemlerine geçmiş ve mevcut analiz sistemleri arasındaki farklar üzerinden ışık tutulmaya çalışılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İstihbarat
• İstihbarat Çarkı
• SWOT Analizi
• İstihbarat Çarkı Tartışmaları
• İstihbarat Çarklarının Değerlendirilmesi

Kaynakça

1. Andrews, Kenneth R. The Concept of Corporate Strategy. 2.bs. Irwin, Homewood, IL, 1980.
2. Anissa, Frini ve Anne-Claire Boury-Brisset. "An Intelligence Process Model Based on a Collaborative Approach", Collective C2 in Multinational Civil-Military Operations -16th ICCRTS-. Quebec: Defence R&D Canada – Valcartier, 2011.
3. Bartes, František. "Five-Phase Model of the Intelligence Cycle of Competitive Intelligence", Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, (2013).
4. Boyd, John R. "Organic Design for Command Control". 1987.
5. Clark, Robert M. Intelligence Analysis a Target-Centric Approach California: CQ Press, 2013.
6. Clausewitz, Carl Von. On War. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1832.
7. Davies, Philip, Ian Rigden ve Kristian Gustafson. “The Intelligence Cycle is Dead, Long Live the Intelligence Cycle: Rethinking Intelligence Fundamentals for a New Intelligence Doctrine.” Understanding the Intelligence Cycle içinde, Editör: Mark Phythian, 56-75. New York: Routledge, 2013.
8. Dempsey, Martin E. Joint Intelligence. Washington: Joint Publication, 2-0, 2013.

9. Evans, Geraint. “Rethinking Military Intelligence Failure – Putting the Wheels Back on the Intelligence Cycle.” Defence Studies, (2009): 22-46.
10. Glass, Robert R. ve Philip B. Davidson. Intelligence is for Commanders, Hamburg: Military Service Publishing Company, 1948.
11. Goodman, Allen ve Bruce Berkowitz. Strategic Intelligence for American National Security, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1989.
12. Grant T. Hammond, “The OODA Loop”, A Discourse on Winning and Losing içinde, Editör: Grant T. Hammond, Maxwell AFB: Air University Press, 2018, 383-387.
13. Hill, Terry ve Roy Westbrook, “SWOT Analysis: It’s Time for a Product Recall.” Long Range Planning 30, sy.1 (1997): 46–52.
14. Hughes-Wilson, John. Military Intelligence Blunders and Cover-Ups, London: Robinson Publishing, 2004.
15. Hulnick, Arthur, "What's Wrong with The Intelligence Cycle." Intelligence and National Security 21, sy.6, (2006):959-979.
16. Johnston, Rob. Analytic Culture in The US Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study, Washington: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 2005.
17. Jones, R.V., “A sidelight on Bletchley, 1942”, Intelligence and National Security 9, sy.1 (1994):1-11.
18. Kindsvater, Larry C. 2007. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol47no1/article03.html (04.04.2020).
19. Krizan, Lisa. Intelligence Essentials for Everyone, Washington: Joint Military Intelligence Collage, 1999.
20. Lowenthal, Mark M. Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy; 4.bs. Washington: CQ Press, 2008.
21. Omad, David. “The Cycle of Intelligence”, Routledge Companion to Intelligence Studies içinde, Editör: Robert Dover, Michael S. Goodman ve Claudia Hillebrand, 1.bs. 59-70. New York, Routledge, 2014.
22. Pirolli, Peter ve Card, Stuart. “The Sensemaking Process and Leverage Points for Analyst Technology as Identified Through Cognitive Task Analysis” 2005.
23. Resendez, Carlos Francisco Lerma. "The Intelligence Cycle as a Tool for Effective Information Security Infrastructure Design.” European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (EISIC) 2013. Uppsala, (2013): 194-197.
24. Reuser, Arno. "The RIS Open Source Intelligence Cycle." Journal of Mediterranean and Balkan Intelligence, (2015): 29-43.
25. Treverton, Gregory F. Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
26. Valk, Guillaume Gustav de. Dutch Intelligence - Towards a Qualitative Framework for Analysis. Doktora Tezi University of Groningen, 2005.
27. Warner, Michael "The Past and Future of the Intelligence Cycle". Understanding Intelligence Cycle içinde Editör: Mark Phythian, 24-34. New York: Routledge, 2013.
28. Wheaton, Kristan J. "Let's Kill The Intelligence Cycle." Sources and Methods. 2011. https://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com (Erişim Tarihi: 09.02.2020).
29. Wheelen, Thomas L., J. David Hunger, Alan N. Hoffman, Charles E. Bamford. Strategic Management and Business Policy Globalization, Innovation and Sustainability, 15.bs. Pearson Education Limited, 2018