Jeopolitik Riskler Savunma Harcamalarını Etkiliyor mu? Panel ARDL Yaklaşımı İle Bir Analiz

Öz

Doğası gereği jeopolitik riskler son derece öngörülemez ve yönetilmesi zor bir risk türüdür. Bu riskler, ticari entegrasyon ve küreselleşmeyle birlikte dünya genelinde her geçen gün daha da artmaktadır. Jeopolitik risklerin artması, ülkeleri güvenlik konusunda endişelendirmekte ve onları silahlanma yarışına itebilmektedir. Böylece küresel ölçekte savunma harcamalarında ciddi artışlar söz konusu olabilmektedir. Bu çalışma, jeopolitik risk ve savunma harcamaları ilişkisini aralarında Türkiye’nin de bulunduğu beş ülkeli bir örneklemde incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda panel ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılarak ilgili ülkelere ait 1993-2021 dönemi verileri ile analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz bulguları, uzun dönemde jeopolitik riskin savunma harcamaları üzerinde anlamlı pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre jeopolitik riskin artması, analiz edilen ülkelerde savunma harcamalarını artırmaktadır. Ancak kısa dönemde jeopolitik risklerin savunma harcamaları üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi söz konusu değildir. Bu sonuçlar dâhilinde egemen ülkelerin gerek komşularla ilişkilerde gerekse bölgesel çıkarlar doğrultusunda sorunlarını barışçıl yollarla çözümlemeleri, jeopolitik riskleri ve dahi savunma harcamalarını azaltabilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Jeopolitik risk
• savunma harcamaları
• panel ARDL
• Türkiye

Do Geopolitical Risks Affect Defense Expenditures? An Analysis With Panel ARDL Approach

Öz

By their nature, geopolitical risks are highly unpredictable and difficult to manage. These risks are increasing day by day around the world with commercial integration and globalization. Increasing geopolitical risks make countries worry about security and may push them into an arms race. This study examines the relationship between geopolitical risk and defense expenditures in a sample of five countries, including Türkiye. A panel ARDL method was used to analyze the 1993–2021 period data of the relevant countries for this purpose. Analysis findings show that geopolitical risk positively affects defense expenditures in the long term. Accordingly, the increase in geopolitical risk increases defense expenditures in the analyzed countries. However, there is no effect in the short term. As a result, sovereign states can reduce geopolitical risks and even defense expenditures if they resolve their problems peacefully, both in relations with their neighbors and in line with regional interests.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Geopolitical risk
• defense expenditures
• Panel ARDL
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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