Financial Failure Risk Estimation: An Application on Mining and Quarrying Businesses

Öz

Developments in national economies, technological developments, economic crises and epidemics have made the concept of failure important. Changes and developments at the micro and macro level affect the financial structures of businesses. In order to ensure their sustainability, businesses need to take measures against changing conditions and risks that may arise. In this context, the aim of the study is to estimate the financial failure risks of businesses operating in the mining and quarrying sector in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). Within the scope of the study, the financial statements of the enterprises operating in the mining and quarrying sector for the years 2017-2023 were obtained from the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP) website and subjected to analysis. The financial failure risks of the businesses in the study were determined by using Altman ZI Score Model, Springate and Fulmer Models, which are risk estimation methods. As a result of the study, it was determined that the financial failure status of the enterprises differed in terms of models and years. In future studies, it is recommended to include different sectors in the scope of the study, to extend the study period or to use other financial failure prediction models such as Beaver, Ohlson, Zmijeswki and Canada.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Failure
• Altman Z Score
• Springate Model
• Fulmer Model.

Finansal Başarısızlık Risk Tahmini: Madencilik ve Taş Ocakçılığı İşletmeleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Öz

Ülke ekonomilerinde yaşanan gelişmeler, teknolojik gelişmeler, ekonomik krizler ve salgın hastalıklar finansal başarısızlık kavramını önemli hale getirmiştir. Mikro ve makro düzeyde yaşanan değişimler ve gelişmeler işletmelerin finansal yapılarını etkilemektedir. İşletmelerin sürdürülebilirliklerini sağlamak adına değişen koşullara ve ortaya çıkabilecek risklere karşı önlem almaları gerekmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın amacı, Borsa İstanbul’da (BİST) madencilik ve taş ocakçılığı sektöründe faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin finansal başarısızlık risklerinin tahmin edilmesidir. Çalışma kapsamında madencilik ve taş ocakçılığı sektöründe faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin 2017-2023 yıllarına ilişkin finansal tabloları Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu (KAP) internet sitesinden temin edilerek analize tabi tutulmuştur. Çalışmada yer alan işletmelerin finansal başarısızlık riskleri, risk tahmin yöntemlerinden Altman ZI Skor Modeli, Springate ve Fulmer Modelleri kullanılarak tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda işletmelerin finansal başarısızlık durumlarının modeller ve yıllar itibariyle farklılık gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonraki çalışmalarda farklı sektörlerin çalışma kapsamına alınması, çalışma döneminin genişletilmesi veya Beaver, Ohlson, Zmijeswki ve Canada gibi diğer finansal başarısızlık tahmin modellerinin kullanılması sunulacak öneriler arasındadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Başarısızlık
• Altman Z Skor
• Springate Modeli
• Fulmer Modeli.

Kaynakça

1. Akyüz, F. (2020). Taş ve toprağa dayalı sektörde faaliyet gösteren şirketlerin finansal başarısızlık risklerinin tahmin edilmesi. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13(1), 4-51. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.652278
2. Altman, E. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2978933
3. Altman, E. (2000). Predicting financial distress of companies: revisiting the z-score and zeta models. A. R. Bell, C. Brooks, ve Marcel P. (Ed.), Handbook of research methods and applications in empirical finance (s. 428-456). Economics 2013. https://doi.org/10.4337/9780857936080.00027
4. Avcı, P. (2024). İşletmelerin finansal başarısızlık riskine sermaye yapısının etkisi: KOBİ sanayi endeksi. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 8(1), 174-188. https://doi.org/10.30586/1422016
5. Azam, A., Ahmed, B., Sultana, S. ve Mulla, N. A. (2023). Comparative analysis of financial health of selected indian metals and mining companies using the altman z-score, and zmijewski models. European Economic Letters, 13(5), 519-528. https://www.eelet.org.uk/index.php/journal/article/view/782
6. Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Selected Studies, 4, 70-112. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2490171
7. Boda, M. ve Uradnicek, V. (2016). The portability of altman’s z-score model to predicting corporate financial distress of Slovak companies. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 22(4), 532-553. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1197165
8. Buele, I., Tigsi, A. ve Solano, S. (2021). Financial analysis and forecasting of business failure applied to manufacturing companies. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 25(2), 1-11. https://www.abacademies.org/articles/financial-analysis-and-forecasting-of-business-failure-applied-to-manufacturing-companies-10412.html

9. Ernayani, R. (2020). Predicting the potenial bankruptcy of coal mining companies using altman z-score method during 2012-2016 period. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 8(1), 491-500. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.8160
10. Fauzi, S. E., Sudjono ve Saluy, A. B. (2021). Comparative analysis of financial sustainability using the altman z-score, springate, zmijewski and grover models for companies listed at indonesia stock exchange sub-sector telecommunication period 2014–2019. Journal of Economics and Business, 4(1), 57-78. https://www.asianinstituteofresearch.org/_files/ugd/ed8b62_74108b215ab444029a0aeefc8d940249.pdf
11. Fidan, M. E. (2021). BİST’te işlem gören tekstil, giyim eşyası ve deri sektörü işletmelerinin altman-z skor yöntemi ile finansal başarısızlık tahmini. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(3), 1945-1969. https://doi.org/10.20491/isarder.2021.1239
12. Fulmer, J., Moon, J., Gavin, T. ve Erwin, J. (1984). A bankruptcy classification model for small firms. Journal of Commercial Bank Lending, 66(11), 25-37. https://bibliotecabancaditalia.on.worldcat.org/oclc/1192608433
13. Gül, M. ve Yılmaz, T. (2023). Altman z skor modeline göre finansal başarı ve belirleyicileri. İşletme Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(2), 202-218. https://doi.org/10.33416/baybem.1297200
14. Hamid, M. G., Mohammed, G. A., Omar, K. M. T. ve Haji, S. M. R. (2023). Using altman and sherrod z- score models to detect financial failure for the banks listed on the ıraqi stock exchange (ıse) between 2009-2013. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(4), 01-12. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/8956072.pdf
15. Huo, Y. H. (2006). Bankruptcy situation model in small business: the case of restaurant firms. Hospitality Review, 24(2), 47-58. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1424&context=hospitalityreview
16. Imanzadeh, P., Jouri, M. M. ve Sepehri, P. (2011). A study of the application of springate and zmijewski bankruptcy prediction models in firms accepted in tehran stock exchange. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 11(5), 1546-1550. https://www.ajbasweb.com/old/ajbas/2011/November-2011/1546-1550.pdf
17. Iskandar, D. (2019). Predicting the possibility of bankruptcy in coal mining company: springate s-score method. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 4(10), 1-8. https://ijisrt.com/assets/upload/files/IJISRT19OCT1582.pdf
18. Karels, G. V. ve Prakash, A. J. (1987). Multivariate normality and forecasting of business bankruptcy. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 14(4), 573-593. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-5957.1987.tb00113.x
19. Mamarimbing, M. ve Soweignyo, F. (2022). Bankruptcy analysis of mining sector listed on indonesia stock exchange. Klabat Journal of Management, 3(1), 1-17. https://ejournal.unklab.ac.id/index.php/kjm/article/download/806/674
20. Medetoğlu, B. ve Tutar, S. (2023). Springate s ve fulmer h skor modelleri ile finansal başarısızlık testpiti: Borsa istanbul tekstil, giyim eşyası ve deri sektörü üzerine bir uygulama. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 24(1), 307-319. https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1186265
21. Mulyati, S. ve İlyasa, Ş. (2020). The comparative analysis of altman z-score, springate, zmijewski, and internal growth rate model in predicting the financial distress (empirical study on mining companies listed on indonesia stock exchange 2014-2017). Kinerja, 24(1), 82-95. https://doi.org/10.24002/kinerja.v24i1.3231
22. Nimbalkar, P ve Nagendra, M. (2022). Bankruptcy prediction for cement industry in india using altman z score model. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 22(24), 77-85. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4253357
23. Nurfadillah, P. S. ve Yulianti, E. (2024). Accuracy analysis of the financial distress prediction model using altman z-score, springate, zmijewski and grover in the oil, gas and geothermal mining subsectors listed on the indonesian stock exchange (beı). Jurnal Ekonomi, 13(01), 2202-2215. https://ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/Ekonomi/article/view/3843
24. Ohlson, J.A. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2490395
25. Ova, A. (2023). BİST gıda ve içecek endeksinde yer alan şirketlerin finansal durum analizi. Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(3), 670-682. https://doi.org/10.31592/aeusbed.1212833
26. Panigrahi, A. (2019). Validity of altman's zscore model in predicting financial distress of pharmaceutical companies. Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies Journal of Economics and Public Policy, 4(1), 65-73. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3326312
27. Rahmawati, A., Nurleni, ve Putri, S. A. (2023). Bankruptcy analysis using altmat z-score method at mining company pt adaro tbk 2015-2021. BISMA: Business and Management Journal, 1(4), 10-16. https://doi.org/10.59966/bisma.v1i04.324
28. Setiawan, F. (2021). Financial distress analysis using altman z-score model in sharia banking in Indonesia. Iqtiıshoduna: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam[Online], 10(2), 105-122. https://doi.org/10.36835/iqtishoduna.v10i2.938
29. Shahwan, T. M. (2015). The effects of corporate governance on financial performance and financial distress: evidence from egypt. Corporate Governance, 15(5). 641-662. https://doi.org/10.1108/CG-11-2014-0140
30. Soelton, M., Muhsin, Saratian, E. T. P., Arief, H. ve Vizano, N. A. (2019). Analysis of bankruptcy prediction wıth altman z-score and zmijewski x-score model in coal mining industry listed in indonesia stock exchange 2015-2017 period. South East Asia Journal of Contemporary Business, Economics and Law, 20(5), 158-166. https://seajbel.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/klıcels14_246.pdf
31. Springate, G. (1978). Predicting the possibility of failure in a canadian firm: a discriminant analysis. Simon Fraser University.
32. Swalih, M. M., Adarsh, K. B. ve Sulphey, M. M. (2021). A study on the financial soundness of indian automobile industries using altman z-score. Accounting, 7(2), 295-298. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2020.12.001
33. Tan, E. ve Wibisana, T. A. (2020). A comparative analysis altman (z-score) revision and springate (s-score) model in predicting financial distress in the manufacturing company indonesia stock exchange. Journal of Reseacrh in Business, Economics, and Education, 2(4), 831-841. https://e-journal.stiekusumanegara.ac.id/index.php/jrbee/article/view/123
34. Tanjung, S. (2020). Comparative analysis of altman z-score, springate, zmijewski and ohlson models in predicting financial distress. EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 6(3), 126-137. https://doi.org/10.36713/epra4162
35. Tekin, B. ve Gör, Y. (2022). Finansal başarısızlık tahmin modelleri ve bankacılık sektörü mali tabloları üzerinden bir uygulama: altman ve springate modelleri. Adıyaman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15(40). 373-404. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/adyusbd
36. Tepeli, Y. ve Kahraman, Y. E. (2023). Firmalarda borçlanma yapısının finansal başarı üzerindeki etkisi: bıst tüm endeksi şirketlerinde bir araştırma. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (100), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1313616
37. Türk, Z. ve Kürklü, E. (2017). Financial faliure estimate in bist companies with altman (z-score) and Springate (s-score) models. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 1(1), 1-14. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/319546
38. Usmansyah, U. ve Pudjiastuty, P. (2023). To recognize indication of financial distress and or bankruptcy of five textile company for five years period using five financial distress models. Study of Management, Economic and Bussines, 2(1), 24-33. https://doi.org/10.57096/return.v1i05.35
39. Yendrawati, R. ve Adiwafi, N. (2020). Comparative analysis of z-score, springate, and zmijewski models in predicting financial distress conditions. Journal of Contemporary Accounting, 2(2), 72-80. https://doi.org/10.20885/jca.vol2.iss2.art2
40. Yetik H. ve Uygurtürk, H. (2023). Finansal başarısızlık risk tahmini: çimento sektörü işletmeleri üzerine bir araştırma. Journal of International Banking Economy and Management Studies, 6(2), 67-87. https://doi.org./10.52736/ubeyad.1299522
41. Yıldız, Ş. ve Gürkan, S. (2022). Finansal başarısızlık tahmin modellerinin karşılaştırılması: borsa istanbul turizm şirketlerinde bir araştırma. Ekonomi, İşletme ve Yönetim Dergisi, 6(2), 235-262. https://doi.org/10.7596/jebm.31122022.005