Türkiye’de Verimlilik Göstergeleri ve Sanayi İstihdamı: Bölgesel Panel Verilerden Bulgular

Öz

Bu araştırmanın amacı, Türkiye'de bölgesel düzeyde sanayi sektöründe istihdam dinamikleri ve verimlilik göstergeleri arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektir. Sanayi sektörü hem üretim hem de istihdam açısından Türkiye ekonomisi için kritik öneme sahiptir. Bununla birlikte, artan enerji maliyetleri, dışa bağımlılık ve teknolojik dönüşüm, sanayi istihdamını şekillendiren temel dinamikler arasındadır. Bu çerçevede, çalışma öncelikle işgücü verimliliği ve enerji verimliliğinin istihdam üzerindeki etkisini araştırırken, aynı zamanda GSYİH'deki sanayi payı, üniversite mezunlarının oranı ve patent başvuruları gibi kontrol değişkenlerini de dikkate almaktadır. Analiz, 2004-2023 dönemini kapsamaktadır ve Türkiye'nin 26 İBBS-2 bölgesini kapsayan bir panel veri setini kullanmaktadır. Serilerin durağanlığı test edildikten sonra, panel ARDL tahmin stratejisine dayalı olarak tahminler yapılmıştır. Bulgular, uzun vadede işgücü verimliliğinin istihdamı olumsuz etkilediğini, enerji verimliliğinin ise istihdamı olumlu etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, sanayi payının, yükseköğretim mezun oranının ve patent başvurularının uzun vadeli istihdamı artırıcı etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Genel olarak, çalışma, enerji verimliliği politikalarının yalnızca enerji güvenliğini sağlama ve dışa bağımlılığı azaltma açısından değil, aynı zamanda istihdamı destekleme açısından da önemli bir potansiyele sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bağlamda, sonuçlar politika yapıcılar için değerli bilgiler sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sanayi istihdamı
• İşgücü verimliliği
• Enerji verimliliği
• Bölgesel analiz
• Panel ARDL

Productivity Indicators and Industrial Employment in Türkiye: Evidence from Regional Panel Data

Abstract

The objective of this research is to analyze the association between employment dynamics and productivity indicators in the industrial sector at the regional level in Türkiye. The industrial sector holds critical importance for the Turkish economy, both in terms of production and employment. However, rising energy costs, external dependency, and technological transformation are among the key dynamics shaping industrial employment. Within this framework, the study primarily explores the influence of labor productivity and energy productivity on employment, while also considering control variables such as the portion of industry in GDP, the ratio of university graduates, and patent applications. The analysis spans the period from 2004 to 2023 and utilizes a panel dataset comprising 26 NUTS-2 regions in Türkiye. After testing the stationarity of the series, estimations were conducted based on the panel ARDL estimation strategy. The findings unveil that, in the long term, labor productivity harms employment, whereas energy productivity has a positive influence on employment. Moreover, the share of industry, the proportion of higher education graduates, and patent applications are found to have long-term employment-enhancing effects. Overall, the study demonstrates that energy efficiency policies hold significant potential not only for ensuring energy security and reducing external dependency but also for supporting employment. In this regard, the results provide valuable insights for policymakers.

Keywords

• Industrial employment
• Labor productivity
• Energy productivity
• Regional analysis
• Panel ARDL

Kaynakça

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