BRIC Ülkelerinde CO₂ Emisyonlarının Yeni Belirleyicileri: Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Temiz Enerji Tüketimi ve Finansal Gelişmenin Rolünün Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

BRIC ülkelerinde hızlanan ekonomik büyüme ve yüksek politika belirsizlikleri son yıllarda çevresel baskıları belirgin biçimde artırmaktadır. İklim ve ekolojik sorunların hızla ivmelenmesi, politika yapıcıların daha sıkı çevre politikaları yürürlüğe koymasına imkân tanımıştır. Bu çalışma, 1997-2024 döneminde BRIC ekonomilerinde çevresel bozulmanın yeni belirleyicilerini araştırmaktadır. Kişi başına CO₂ emisyonu bağımlı değişken; kişi başına reel GSYH, temiz enerji tüketimi, ekonomik politika belirsizliği endeksi ve bankacılık temelli finansal gelişme ise açıklayıcı değişkenlerdir. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve eğim heterojenliği Pesaran CD ve delta testleriyle, serilerin bütünleşme dereceleri CIPS ve CADF testleriyle; uzun dönem ilişkiler Westerlund eşbütünleşme testiyle analiz edilmiştir. Uzun dönem katsayıları, ortak şokları ve yapısal farklılıkları dikkate alan Panel AMG tahmincisiyle elde edilmiştir. Bulgular, ekonomik büyümenin tüm ülkelerde emisyonları artırdığını; finansal kalkınmanın çevre üzerindeki etkisi ise ülkelere göre farklılaşmakta kimi durumda emisyon artırıcı, kimi durumda azaltmakta, temiz enerjinin panel genelinde azaltıcı etkide bulunduğunu ve belirsizliğin çoğu ülkede çevresel bozulmayı derinleştirdiğini göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, BRIC ülkelerinde temiz enerji finansmanı, yeşil bankacılık standartları ve öngörülebilir politika çerçevesinin birlikte tasarlanması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ekonomik politik belirsizlik
• temiz enerji
• finansal kalkınma
• panel veri analizi

The New Drivers of CO₂ Emissions in BRIC Countries: Assessing the Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty, Clean Energy Consumption and Financial Development

Abstract

Rapid economic growth (GDP) and heightened policy uncertainty have intensified environmental pressures in BRIC economies, prompting stricter environmental regulation. This study examines the drivers of ecological degradation in BRIC countries from 1997 to 2024. Per capita CO₂ emissions are the dependent variable, while real GDP per capita, clean energy consumption (CE), the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, and bank-based financial development (FD) serve as regressors. Cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity are tested using Pesaran’s CD and delta statistics; integration is assessed with CIPS and CADF unit-root tests; and long-run relationships are evaluated via the Westerlund cointegration approach. Long-run coefficients are estimated with the panel Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator, which accommodates common shocks and structural heterogeneity. Results show that GDP increases emissions in all BRIC economies. FD has country-specific effects, either raising or reducing emissions. CE lowers emissions at the panel level, whereas policy uncertainty worsens environmental quality in most cases. The findings support coordinated clean-energy finance, green banking standards, and predictable policy frameworks.

Keywords

• economic policy uncertainty
• clean enerji
• financial development
• panel data analysis

Kaynakça

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