Long-Run Effects of Uncertainty, Exchange Rates, and Income on Services Trade: Evidence from the G7 Countries

Öz

This study empirically examines the long-run determinants of total services trade in the G7 countries over the 1997-2024 period. Using annual panel data from the World Bank and the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) database, the study includes EPU index, the real effective exchange rate (REER) and gross domestic product (GDP) as the main explanatory variables. Cointegration is tested using the Westerlund test, while long-run coefficients are estimated using AMG and CCEMG estimators, which account for cross-sectional dependence and unobserved common factors. The findings show that REER appreciation has a statistically significant negative effect on total services trade (−0.70 to −0.80), whereas increases in GDP significantly raise it (0.83 to 1.09), indicating the importance of price competitiveness and economic scale in the long run. However, the EPU coefficient is not statistically significant with either estimator. The absence of a significant long-run effect of policy uncertainty may be related to the structural resilience of G7 economies. Accordingly, preserving price competitiveness appears to be important for policies supporting services trade in the G7 countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Services trade
• economic policy uncertainty
• real effective exchange rate
• AMG–CCEMG
• G7

Belirsizlik, Döviz Kuru ve Gelirin Hizmet Ticareti Üzerindeki Uzun Dönem Etkileri: G7 Ülkelerinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, G7 ülkelerinde toplam hizmet ticaretinin uzun dönem belirleyicilerini, 1997-2024 dönemi için ampirik olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada Dünya Bankası ve Ekonomi Politikası Belirsizliği (Economic Policy Uncertainty, EPU) veri tabanlarından elde edilen yıllık panel veriler kullanılarak EPU endeksi, reel efektif döviz kuru (Real Effective Exchange Rate, REER) ve ülkelerin kendi gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (GSYİH) düzeyi temel açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Westerlund testiyle sınanmış, uzun dönem katsayıları ise yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve gözlenemeyen ortak faktörleri dikkate alan AMG ve CCEMG panel tahmincileri ile tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, REER’deki değerlenmenin toplam hizmet ticaretini istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönde (-0,70/-0,80) etkilediğini, buna karşılık GSYİH artışlarının toplam hizmet ticaretini artırdığını (0,83/1,09) ve böylece hizmet ticaretinin uzun dönemde fiyat rekabetçiliği ve ekonomik ölçek kanallarıyla şekillendiğini göstermektedir. EPU katsayısı ise her iki modelde de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunamamıştır. Bu durum, politika belirsizliğinin hizmet ticareti üzerinde anlamlı uzun dönem etkisinin tespit edilememesinin G7 ekonomilerinin yapısal dayanıklılığı ile ilişkili olabileceğini düşündürmektedir. Bu sonuçlar, G7 ülkelerinde hizmet ticaretini desteklemeye yönelik politikalarda fiyat rekabetçiliğinin korunmasının önem taşıdığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hizmet ticareti
• ekonomi politikası belirsizliği
• reel efektif döviz kuru
• AMG–CCEMG
• G7

Kaynakça

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