TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION TOWARDS EMERGING MARKETS: A COMPARATIVE PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Yıl 2020, , 287 - 304, 31.10.2020

Çağlar Karaduman

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.767467

Cited By: 1

Öz

This study aims to reveal how absorbable foreign direct investment (FDI) and macroeconomic performance affect technology diffusion along with patent applications, imports and human capital in 14 selected emerging markets (EMs) between 1980-2017. To do this, a new approach for indexing macroeconomic performance is suggested and a strongly balanced panel was investigated with two different econometric approaches. Key findings are as follows: (i) suggested macroeconomic performance index performs well under pooled mean group and dynamic common correlated effects estimations and proves the importance of macroeconomic outlook for developing countries, (ii) the positive effect of human capital on total factor productivity turns to negative when common factors are included in the estimation, meaning that international technology spillovers are a key source of productivity increases for developing countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Technology diffusion, emerging markets, productivity, pooled mean group, dynamic common correlated effects

TEKNOLOJİNİN GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERE DİFÜZYONU: BİR KARŞILAŞTIRMALI PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, patent başvuruları, ithalat ve beşerî sermayenin yanında absorbe edilebilir doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) ve makroekonomik performans verilerini de dikkate alarak seçilmiş 14 gelişmekte olan ülke için 1980-2017 döneminde teknoloji difüzyonunu incelemektedir. Bu amaç bağlamında makroekonomik performansı endekslemeye yönelik farklı bir yaklaşım önerilmiş ve dengeli bir panel veri seti üzerinde iki ayrı ekonometrik yaklaşım ile çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular şunlardır: (i) önerilen makroekonomik performans indeksi karma ortalama grup ve dinamik ortak korelasyonlu etkiler tahminlemeleri kapsamında iyi performans sergilemiş ve makroekonomik görünümün gelişen ülkeler için önemini ortaya koymuştur, (ii) beşerî sermayenin toplam faktör verimliliği üzerindeki pozitif etkisi ortak faktörlerin analize dahil edilmesiyle negatife dönmektedir. Bunun anlamı, uluslararası teknoloji yayılımı etkilerinin gelişmekte olan ülkeler için anahtar verimlilik kaynaklarından biri olduğudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

teknoloji difüzyonu, gelişmekte olan ülkeler, verimlilik, karma ortalama grup, dinamik ortak korelasyonlu etkiler

Kaynakça

• Accolley, D. (2003). The Determinants and Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment, MPRA Papers.
• Acs, Z. J. & Audretsch, D. B. (1989). Patents as a Measure of Innovative Activity. Kyklos International Review for Social Sciences, 42(2).
• Adamopoulos, T. & A. Akyol (2006). Relative Stagnation Alla Turca. York University, Department of Economics, Toronto.
• Alcacer, J. & Gittelman, M. (2006). Patent Citations as a Measure of Knowledge Flows: The Influence of Examiner Citations. Review of Economics and Statistics, 8(8), 774-779.
• Almeida, P. & Kogut, B. (1999). Localization of Knowledge and the Mobility of Engineers in Regional Networks. Management Science, 45(7).
• Amann, E. & Virmani, S. (2015). Foreign Direct Investment and Reverse Technology Spillovers: The Effect on Total Factor Productivity. OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2014: 129-153.
• Andrews, D., Nicoletti, G. & Timiliotis, C. (2016). Digital Technology Diffusion: A Matter of Capabilities, Incentives or Both? OECD Economics Department, WP No: 1476.
• Asteriou, D., Pilbeam, K. & Pratiwi, C. E. (2020). Public Debt and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence for Asian Countries. Journal of Economics and Finance 2020, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-020-09515-7.
• Ayalew, S., Babu, M. C. & Rao, L. K. M. (2012). Comparison of New Approach Criteria for Estimating the Order of Autoregressive Process. IOSR Journal of Mathematics, 1(3).
• Baltabaev, B. (2014). Foreign Direct Investment and Total Factor Productivity Growth: New Macro‐Evidence. The World Economy, 37(2).
• Banerjee, A. & Carrion-I-Silvestre, J. L. (2017). Testing for Panel Cointegration Using Common Correlated Effects Estimator. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 38.
• Benhabib, J. & Spiegel, M. M. (2005). Human Capital and Technology Diffusion. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1(A).
• Bernard, A. B. & Jensen, J. B. (1999). Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect or Both? Journal of International Economics, 47(1999), 1–25.
• Bessen, J. (2006). The Value of U.S. Patents by Owner and Patent Characteristics. Working Paper Series on Law and Economics, No: 06(46), Boston University School of Law.
• Bessen, J. & Maskin, E. (2009). Sequential Innovation, Patents, and Imitation. The RAND Journal of Economics, 40(4).
• Bijsterbosch, M. & Kolasa, M. (2010). FDI and Productivity Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe an Industry-Level Investigation. Review of World Economics, 145, 689-712.
• Bleaney, M. F. (1996). Macroeconomic Stability, Investment and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 48, Elsevier.
• Blomquist, J. & Westerlund, J. (2013). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels with Serial Correlation. Economics Letters, 121(3).
• Bloom, N. & Van Reenen, J. (2001). Real Options, Patents, Productivity and Market Value: Evidence from a Panel of British Firms. Institute for Fiscal Studies WP, No: W00/21.
• Born, B. & Breitung, J. (2016). Testing for Serial Correlation in Fixed Effects Panel Data Models. Econometric Reviews, 35(7).
• Chee, Y. L. & Nair, M. (2010). Is FDI Spillover Conditioned on Financial Development and Trade Liberalization: Evidence from UMCs. Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 2(2), 26-34.
• Chudik, A. & Pesaran, M. H. (2013). Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogenous Dynamic Panel Data Models with Weakly Exogenous Regressors. CESifo Working Papers, No:4232.
• Clerides S., Lach, S. & Tybout, James R. (1998). Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro- Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, And Morocco. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 903-947
• Coe, D., & E. Helpman, (1995). International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review, 39, 859–887.
• Cohen, W. M. & Levinthal, D. A. (1989). Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D. The Economic Journal, 99(397), 569-596.
• Durham, J. B. (2004). Absorptive Capacity and The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment And Equity Foreign Portfolio Investment on Economic Growth. European Economic Review, 48(2), 285-306.
• Driffield, N. & Henry, M. (2007). Trade, FDI and Technology Diffusion in Developing Countries: The Role of Human Capital and Institutions.
• Edquist, H. & Henrekson, M. (2017). Do R&D and ICT Affect Total Factor Productivity Growth Differently? Telecomminucations Policy, 41(2).
• Ekren, N., Aykaç Alp, E. & Yağmur, M. H. (2017). Macroeconomic Performance Index: A New Approach to Calculation of Economic Wellbeing. Applied Economics, 49(53).
• Engelbrecht, H. (2002). Human Capital and Economic Growth: Cross-Section Evidence for OECD Countries. The Economic Record, 79 Special Issue, 40–51.
• Ertur, C. & Musolesi, A. (2016). Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32(3).
• Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R. & Timmer, M. P. (2015). The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, available for download at www.ggdc.net/pwt
• Ferrier, G. D., Reyes, J. & Zhu, Z. (2016). Technology Diffusion on The International Trade Network, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 18(2).
• Geng, D. & Saggi, K. (2019). Foreign Direct Investment and International Technology Diffusion. Oxford Research Encyclopedia, Economics and Finance, DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.241.
• Griliches, Z. (1981). Market Value, R&D, and Patents. Economics Letters, 7(2).
• Griliches, Z. (1998). R&D and Productivity: The Unfinished Business, R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence. University of Chicago Press.
• Grossman, G. M. & Helpman E. (1990). Trade, Knowledge Spillovers and Growth. NBER Working Paper No. 3485.
• Habib, M., Abbas, J. & Noman, R. (2019). Are Human Capital, Intellectual Property Rights, and Research and Development Expenditures Really Important for Total Factor Productivity? An Empirical Analysis. IJSE, 46(6).
• Hall, B., Jaffe, A. & Trajtenberg M. (2005). Market Value and Patent Citations. RAND Journal of Economics, 3(6), 16-38.
• Hallward-Dremier, M., Iarossi, G. & Sokoloff, Kenneth L. (2005). Exports and Manufacturıng Productivity in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis with Firm-Level Data.
• Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271.
• Hermes, N. & Lensink, R. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development and Economic Growth, Journal of Development Studies, 40(1), 142-163.
• Herwartz, H. & Lange, A. (2020). Bootstrapping in Macroeconometrics, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University.
• Hoekman, Bernard M., Maskus, Keith E. & Saggi, K. (2005). Transfer of Technology to Developing Countries: Unilateral and Multilateral Policy Options, World Development, 33(10), 1587–1602
• Iacovone, L., Javorcik, B., Keller, W. & Tybout, J. (2009). Walmart in Mexico: The Impact of FDI on Innovation and Industry Productivity.
• Islam, N. (1995). Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4), 1127-1170.
• Jayasuriya, D. (2011). Improvements in The World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Rankings: Do They Translate into Greater Foreign Direct Investment Inflows? Development Policy Centre Discussion Paper No:8.
• Johnson, A. (2006). The Effects of FDI Inflows on Host Country Economic Growth. CESIS Working Paper Series, Paper No.58, Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
• Kao, C. (1999). Spurious Regression and Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, 90, 1-44.
• Kapetanios, G., Pesaran, M. H. & Yamagata, T. (2011). Panels with Nonstationary Multifactor Error Structures. Journal of Econometrics, 160, 326–348.
• Keller, W. (2000). Geographic Localization of International Technology Diffusion. NBER Working Papers No: 7509.
• Keller, W. (2010). International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Spillovers. Handbook of Economics Volume II, 794-825.
• Kneller, R. (2005). Frontier Technology, Absorptive Capacity and Distance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(1), 1-23.
• Kim, J. & Park, J. (2018). The Role of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Middle-Income Countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(6).
• Krueger, A. B. & Lindahl, M. (1999). Education for Growth in Sweden and the World. NBER Working Paper No. 7190.
• Lee, J. H. & Hong, K. S. (2010). Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects. ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 220. Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB).
• Lichtenberg, F. & Pottelsberghe, B. P. (1996). International R&D Spillovers: A Re-exemination. NBER Working Papers, 5668.
• Lopez-Rodriguez, J. & Martinez-Lopez, D. (2017). Looking Beyond the R&D Effects on Innovation: The Contribution of Non-R&D Activities to Total Factor Productivity Growth in the EU. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 40.
• Mannasoo, K., Hein, H. & Ruubel, R. (2018). The Contributions of Human Capital, R&D Spending and Convergence to Total Factor Productivity Growth, Regional Studies, 52(12).
• Mayer, J. (2001). Technology Diffusion, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. UNCTAD Discussion Papers from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, No:154.
• McNeil, L. (2014). The Impact of Export Demand on Domestic Productivity Improvement. Global Business and Economics Research Journal, 3, 1-14.
• Nelson, Richard R. & Phelps, Edmund S. (1966). Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion, and Economic Growth, The American Economic Review, 56(1/2), 69-75.
• Pakes, A. (1986). Patents as Options: Some Estimates of The Value of Holding European Patent Stocks, Econometrica, 54, 755-784.
• Parente, S. & Prescott, E. (1994). Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development, Journal of Political Economy, 102(2), 298-321.
• Pedroni P. (1997) Panel Cointegration; Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis: New results. Working Paper, Indiana University.
• Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1).
• Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models. Economics Letters, 58(1), 17-29.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446).
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Papers 1240.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and Inference In Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure, Econometrica, 74, 967–1012.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Economics, 22(2).
• Pesaran, M. H. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93.
• Pietrzak, M. B. & Balcerzak, A. P. (2016). Quality of Human Capital and Total Factor Productivity in New EU Member States, Chapters, in: T. Loster & T. Pavelka (ed.),The 10th International Days of Statistics and Economics. Conference Proceedings. September 8-10, 2016, edition 1, volume 1, pages 1492-1501, Institute of Economic Research.
• Rodriguez-Clare, A. & Alfaro, L. (2004). Multinationals and Linkages: an Empirical Investigation. 2004 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics No:145.
• Sarkar, P. (2007). Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Growth? Panel Data and Time Series Evidence from Less Developed Countries, 1970-2002.
• Shackelton, R. (2013). Total Factor Productivity Growth in Historical Perspective, Working Paper 2013(01), Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office.
• Sichelman, T. M. (2010). Commercializing Patents. Stanford Law Review, 62(2).
• Tao, Y. & Yu, J. (2017). Model Selection for Explosive Models. Advances in Econometrics Vol. 41.
• Srholec, M. (2007). High-Tech Exports from Developing Countries: A Symptom of Technology Spurts or Statistical Illusion? Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 143(2), 227-255
• Teixeira, A. & Fortuna, N. (2010). Human Capital, R&D, Trade, and Long-run Productivity: Testing the Technological Absorption Hypothesis for the Portuguese Economy: 1960-2001. Research Policy, 39(3), 335-350.
• Tintin, C. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment, Productivity Spillovers and Labor Quality. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 4, 57-66.
• Westerlund, J. (2007). Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2).
• Westerlund, J. & Edgerton, D. L. (2007). A Panel Bootstrap Cointegration Test. Economics Letters, 97(3).
• World Bank, (1993). The East Asian Economic Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. Oxford University Press.
• World Bank, (2020). World Bank Online Databank: World Development Indicators (WDI), https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, Date of Access: March 27th, 2020.
• Yaoxing, Y. (2010). The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness and Growth in Cote d’Ivoire. International Journal of Business and Management, 5, 99-107.
• Yıldırım, Y. (2013). An Approach to Estimate Depreciation Rate for Constructing R&D Capital Stock. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 13, 113-131.