TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON VE İSTİHDAM ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: BOOTSTRAP ROLLING WINDOW NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için enflasyon ile istihdam arasında nedensellik ilişkisini test etmektir. İlk olarak, serilerin durağanlıkları, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) ikinci nesil çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testiyle incelenmiştir. Daha sonra, seriler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testiyle sınanmıştır. Son olarak, eşbütünleşme sonuçlarına bağlı olarak seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisine Hatemi-J (2012) ve Balcılar vd. (2010) tarafından geliştirilen Rolling Window nedensellik testleri ile bakılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiye göre, istihdamın pozitif şoklarından enflasyondaki negatif şokları; istihdamın negatif şoklarından enflasyondaki negatif şokları ve enflasyonun pozitif şoklarından istihdamın pozitif şokları yönünde nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca dönem bazında da enflasyondan istihdama (2006M6-2006M11; 2009M12-2010M3 ve 2016M6-2017M1), istihdamdan enflasyona ise (2009M2-2009M5; 2009M10-2010M3; 2011M2-2011M4;2012M12-2013M7; 2014M7-2014M4; 2015M6-2015M8; 2017M4-2017M6) dönemlerinde nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Phillips Eğrisi
• Türkiye Ekonomisi
• Enflasyon
• İstihdam

RELATIONSHIP OF INFLATION BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY: BOOTSTRAP ROLLING WINDOW CAUSALITY TEST

Öz

The purpose of this study is to test the causality between employment and inflation for Turkey. Firstly, the stationarities of the series were examined by the second-generation unit root test (Carrion-i-Silvestre et al., 2009) with multiple structural breaks. Later, the existence of cointegration relationship between series was tested with Maki (2012) multiple structural break cointegration test. Finally, depending on the cointegration results, the causality relationship between the series was studied by Rolling Window causality tests which is developed by Hatemi-J (2012) and Balcilar et al. (2010).According to the asymmetrical relationship between the variables, causality has been determined among the positive shocks of employment, negative shocks in inflation; from negative shocks of employment to negative shocks of inflation and from positive shocks of inflation, towards positive shocks of employment. In addition, on a period basis, from inflation to employment (2006M6-2006M11; 2009M12-2010M3 and 2016M6-2017M1), from employment to inflation (2009M2-2009M5; 2009M10-2010M3; 2011M2-2011M4; 2012M12-2013M7; 2014M7-2014M4; 2015M6-2015M8; 2017M4-2017M6) It was concluded that there was a causality relationship in the periods of.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Phillips Curve
• Turkish Economy
• Inflation
• Employment

Kaynakça

1. Akkuş, G. E. (2012). Phillips Eğrisi: Enflasyon-İşsizlik Değiş-Tokuşu Teorik Bir İnceleme. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuasi, 62(2), 99-151.
2. Al-zeaud, H. (2014). The Trade-off between Unemployment and Inflation Evidence from Causality Test for Jordan. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 4(4), 103-111.
3. Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., & Arslanturk, Y. (2010). Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Causal Nexus Viewed Through a Bootstrap Rolling Window. EnergyEconomics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
4. Bayrak, M. & Kanca, O.C. (2013). Türkiye’de Philips Eğrisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 8(3), 97-115.
5. Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L, Kim D. & Perron P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory, 25,1754-1792.
6. Ewing, B. T. & Seyfried, W. L. (2003). Modeling the Phillips Curve: A Time- Varying Volatility Approach. Applied Econometrics and International Development, AEEADE, 3-2, 7-24.
7. Fu, B. (2020). Is the Slope of the Phillips Curve Time-Varying? Evidence from unobserved components models. Economic Modelling, 88, 320-340.
8. Furuoka, F. (2007). Does the “Phillips Curve” Really Exist? New Empirical Evidence from Malaysia. Economics Bulletin, 5(16),1-14.

9. Gruen, D., Pagan, A. & Thompson, C. (1999). The Phillips Curve in Australia. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), 223-258.
10. Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
11. Hindrayanto, I., Samarina, A. & Stanga, I. M. (2019). Is the Phillips Curve Still Alive? Evidence from the Euro Area. Economics Letters, 174, 149-152.
12. Karacan, R. (2018). Phillips Eğrisi Yaklaşımı ile Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve İşsizlik Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi, Social Mentality and Researcher Thinkers Journal, 4(10), 242-249.
13. Katria, S., Bhutto, N.A., Butt, F., Domki A.A., Khawaja, HA. & Khalid J. (2011). Trade off between Inflation and Unemployment. In Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Business Management, 1-18.
14. Kogid, M., Asid, R., Mulok, D., Lily, J. & Loganathan, N. (2011). Inf¬lation-Unemployment Trade-off Relationship in Malaysia. Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 1(1),100-108.
15. Kuştepeli, Y. (2005). A Comprehensive Short-Run Analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips Curve, Applied Economics, 37, 581-591.
16. Maden, S.I., Baykul, A. & Akgün, E. (2018). Türkiye’de 1980 Sonrası Enflasyon ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişkinin Zaman Serileri ile Analizi. Kent Akademi Dergisi, 4(13), 53-63.
17. Maki, D. (2012). Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
18. Mankiw, N.G. (2001). The Inexorable and Mysterious Trade-off Bet¬ween Inflation and Unemployment. Economic Journal, 111(471)- 45-61.
19. N'Guessan, C. F. J. (2018). Nonlinear Equilibrium Relationship Between Inflation and Employment: Evidence from CôteD’ivoire. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 7(1), 76-82.
20. Okafor, I.G., Chijindu, E.H. & Ugochukwu, U.S. (2016). Responsiveness of Unemployment to Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ni¬geria. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology 2(4), 173-179.
21. Özer, M. O. (2020). Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve İşsizlik Oranları Arasındaki Uzun Dönemli İlişkinin Analizi: Phillips Eğrisine Fourier Yaklaşımı. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 39, 179-192.
22. Phillips, A. W. (1958). The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957, Economica, 25(100), 283–299.
23. Russell, B. & Banerjee, A. (2008). The Long-Run Phillips Curve and Non-stationary Inflation. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(4),1792-1815.
24. Sasongko, G. & Huruta, A. D. (2019). The Causality between Inflation and Unemployment: the Indonesian Evidence. Business: Theory and Practice, 20, 1-10.
25. Ştefan, C. & Bratu, A. (2016). The Inflation-Unemployment Trade off in a Macroeconometric Model. British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences 12(1),22-31.
26. Škare, M. & Caporale, G. M. (2014). Short-and Long-Run Linkages between Employment Growth, Inflation and Output Growth: Evidence from a Large Panel. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 20(3), 554-575.
27. Touny, M.A. (2013). Investigate the Long-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment in Egypt. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(7),115-125.
28. Tunay, K.B. (2010). 50. Yılında Phillips Eğrisi: Makro Ekonomik İstikrar ve Maliyetleri. İstanbul. Beta Basım Yayım.
29. TÜİK, (2020). İşgücü İstatistikleri. www.tuik.gov.tr (ET: 01.07.2020).
30. Umaru, A. & Zubairu, A.A. (2012). An Empirical Analysis of the Re¬lationship between Unemployment and Inflation in Nigeria from 1977–2009. Economics and Finance Review, 1 (12), 42-61.
31. Uysal, D. & Erdoğan, S. (2003). Enflasyon ile İşsizlik Oranı Arasındaki İlişki ve Türkiye Örneği (1980-2002). SÜ İİBF Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1(6), 35-36.
32. Vermeulen, J.C. (2017). Inflation and Unemployment in South Africa: Is the Phillips Curve Still Dead? SouthernAfrican Business Review, 21: 20-54.