Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market

İbrahim Dağlı; Levent Kösekahyaoğlu

doi:10.25204/iktisad.901039

Araştırma Makalesi

Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 16, 348 - 359, 31.10.2021

İbrahim Dağlı Levent Kösekahyaoğlu

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.901039

Öz

The purpose of this paper is twofold. The first is to present a historical perspective for the theoretical and conceptual change experienced in skill-biased technological change. The second is to test whether the job polarization hypothesis would be confirmed for Turkey. In this study, which is a qualitative analysis, using descriptive analysis method employment data obtained from ILOSTAT database between the years 1982-2019 for Turkey has been organized, categorized, summarized and interpreted. A cause-effect relationship has been established between the findings and comparisons have been made between the cases. In the descriptive analysis, it has been seen that Turkey has been experiencing a significant job polarization for the last two decades. After 2000, the share of high-skilled and low-skilled occupations in total employment has increased, and the share of medium-skilled occupations has decreased in Turkey. This situation is considered to be due to the technology is complementary for the high-skilled labor and the new job opportunities created by the growth of the service sector for the low-skilled.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Skill-Biased Technological Change, Job Polarization, Routine-Biased Technological Change

Kaynakça

Acemoglu, D. and Autor, D. (2010). Skills, tasks and technologies: Implications for employment and earnings. NBER Working Paper No. 16082.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2018a). Low-skill and high-skill automation. Journal of Human Capital, 12(2), 204-232.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2018b). Artificial intelligence, automation and work. NBER Working Paper No: 24196, National Bureau of Economic Research Inc.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2020). Unpacking skill bias: automation and new tasks. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110, 356-61.
Aguirregabiria, V. and Alonso-Borrego, C. (2001). Occupational structure, technological innovation, and reorganization of production. Labour Economics, 8(1), 43-73.
Akcomak, S. and Gurcihan, B. H. (2013). Türkiye işgücü piyasasinda mesleklerin önemi: Hizmetler sektörü istihdamı, işgücü ve ücret kutuplaşması”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Çalışma Tebligi, 13/21.
Autor, D. (2010). The polarization of job opportunities in the us labor market: implications for employment and earnings. Center for American Progress and The Hamilton Project.
Autor, D. H. and Dorn, D. (2013). The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553-97.
Autor, D. H., Katz, L. F. and Kearney, M. S. (2006). The polarization of the U.S. labor market. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 96(2), 189-94.
Autor, D., Levy, F. and Murnane R. (2003). The skill-content of recent technological change: An empirical investigation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 1279-1333.
Balsmeier, B. and Woerter, M. (2019). Is this time different? How digitalization influences job creation and destruction. Research Policy, 48(8), 103765.
Card, D. and Dinardo, J.E. (2002). Skill-biased technological change and rising wage inequality: some problems and puzzles. Journal of Labor Economics, 20(4), 733-83.
Chiacchio, F., Petropoulos, G. and Pichler, D. (2018). The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages: a local labour market approach. Bruegel Working Paper, 18 April 2018, Issue 02.
Dachs, B. (2018). The impact of new technologies on the labour market and the social economy. The STOA Project, The European Parliament's Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Panel.
Eurostat (2020). European Commission Eurostat [database]. Available from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database?node_code=org.
Falk, M. and Seim, K. (2001). The impact of information technology on high-skilled labor in services: Evidence from firm-level panel data. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 10(4), 289-323.
Fonseca, T., Lima, F. and Pereira, S. C. (2018). Job polarization, technological change and routinization: Evidence for portugal. Labour Economics, 51, 317-39.
Gera, S., Gu, W. and Lin, Z. (2001). Technology and the demand for skills in Canada: An industry-level analysis, Canadian Journal of Economics, 34(1), 132-48.
Goos, M. and Manning, A. (2007). Lousy and lovely jobs: the rising polarization of work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 118-33.
Goos, M., Manning, A. and Salamons, A. (2014). Explaining job polarization: routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509-26.
Griliches, Z. (1969). Capital-skill complementarity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, 465-68.
Haile, G., Srour, I. and Vivarelli, M. (2017). Imported technology and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Eurasian Business Review, 7(1), 1-23.
Ikenaga, T. (2009). Polarization of the Japanese Labor Market: The adoption of IT and changes in task contents. The Japanese Journal of Labour Studies, 584, 73-90.
ILO (2018). The impact of technology on the quality and quantity of jobs. The Future of Work, International Labour Office (ILO), Issue Brief Series No 6.
ILOSTAT (2020). International Labour Organization database [database]. Available from https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/.
Jaimovich, N. and Siu, H.E. (2012). The trend is the cycle: job polarization and jobless recoveries. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 18334, Revised November 2018.
Meschi, E., Taymaz, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2011). Trade, technology and skills: Evidence from Turkish microdata. Labour Economics, 18, 60–70.
Meschi, E., Taymaz, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2016). Globalization, technological change and labor demand: a firm level analysis for Turkey. Review of World Economics, 152, 655–80.
MGI (2018). Skill shift automation and the future of the workforce. McKinsey Global Institute, Discussion Paper, May 2018.
Michaels, G., Natraj, A. and Van Reenen, J. (2010). Has ICT polarized skill demand? Evidence from eleven countries over 25 years. NBER Working Paper, No. 16138.
Montresor, G. (2019). Job polarization and labour supply changes in the UK. Labour Economics, 58, 187-203.
Piva, M., Santarelli, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2005). The skill bias effect of technological and organisational change: Evidence and policy implications. Research Policy, 34(2), 141-57.
Piva, M., Santarelli, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2006). Technological and organizational changes as determinants of the skill bias: Evidence from the Italian machinery industry. Managerial and Decision Economics, 27, 63-73.
Raquel, S. and Federico, B. (2018). The routine biased technical change hypothesis: a critical review. Joint Research Centre, Technical Report, European Commission, Luxembourg.
Tinbergen, J. (1974). Substitution of graduate by other labour. Kyklos, 27(2), 217-26.
Tinbergen, J. (1975). Substitution of academically trained by other manpower. Review of World Economics, 111(3), 466-76.
Tuzemen, D. (2019) Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States. Economics Letters, 175, 97-100.
Vom Lehn, C. (2018). Understanding the decline in the U.S. labor share: Evidence from occupational tasks. European Economic Review, 108, 191–220.
Welch, F. (1970). Education in production. Journal of Political Economy, 78, 35-59.
World Bank (2020). The World Bank DataBank [database]. Available from https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx.

Beceri Yanlı Teknolojik Değişim ve İşgücü Kutuplaşması ve Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasından Kanıtlar

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 16, 348 - 359, 31.10.2021

İbrahim Dağlı Levent Kösekahyaoğlu

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.901039

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı iki yönlüdür. Birincisi, beceri yanlı teknolojik değişimde yaşanan teorik ve kavramsal değişim için tarihsel bir perspektif sunmaktır. İkincisi, Türkiye için işgücü kutuplaşması hipotezinin geçerli olup olmadığını test etmektir. Nitel bir analiz olan bu çalışmada, betimsel analiz yöntemi kullanılarak ILOSTAT veri tabanından elde edilen 1982-2019 yılları arası Türkiye’ye ait istihdam verileri düzenlenmiş, sınıflandırılmış, özetlenmiş ve yorumlanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular arasında neden-sonuç ilişkisi kurularak olgular arasında karşılaştırmalar yapılmıştır. Yapılan betimsel analiz sonucunda Türkiye'de son yirmi yılda belirgin bir işgücü kutuplaşması yaşandığı görülmüştür. Türkiye’de 2000 yılı sonrasında yüksek-vasıflı ve düşük-vasıflı mesleklerin toplam istihdam içindeki payı artmış ve orta-vasıflı mesleklerin payı azalmıştır. Bu durumun yüksek-vasıflılar için teknolojinin tamamlayıcı olmasından, düşük vasıflılar için hizmet sektörünün büyümesiyle yaratılan yeni iş fırsatlarından kaynaklandığı değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Beceri Yanlı Teknolojik Değişim, İşgücü Kutuplaşması, Rutin Yanlı Teknolojik Değişim

Kaynakça

Acemoglu, D. and Autor, D. (2010). Skills, tasks and technologies: Implications for employment and earnings. NBER Working Paper No. 16082.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2018a). Low-skill and high-skill automation. Journal of Human Capital, 12(2), 204-232.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2018b). Artificial intelligence, automation and work. NBER Working Paper No: 24196, National Bureau of Economic Research Inc.
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P. (2020). Unpacking skill bias: automation and new tasks. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110, 356-61.
Aguirregabiria, V. and Alonso-Borrego, C. (2001). Occupational structure, technological innovation, and reorganization of production. Labour Economics, 8(1), 43-73.
Akcomak, S. and Gurcihan, B. H. (2013). Türkiye işgücü piyasasinda mesleklerin önemi: Hizmetler sektörü istihdamı, işgücü ve ücret kutuplaşması”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Çalışma Tebligi, 13/21.
Autor, D. (2010). The polarization of job opportunities in the us labor market: implications for employment and earnings. Center for American Progress and The Hamilton Project.
Autor, D. H. and Dorn, D. (2013). The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553-97.
Autor, D. H., Katz, L. F. and Kearney, M. S. (2006). The polarization of the U.S. labor market. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 96(2), 189-94.
Autor, D., Levy, F. and Murnane R. (2003). The skill-content of recent technological change: An empirical investigation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 1279-1333.
Balsmeier, B. and Woerter, M. (2019). Is this time different? How digitalization influences job creation and destruction. Research Policy, 48(8), 103765.
Card, D. and Dinardo, J.E. (2002). Skill-biased technological change and rising wage inequality: some problems and puzzles. Journal of Labor Economics, 20(4), 733-83.
Chiacchio, F., Petropoulos, G. and Pichler, D. (2018). The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages: a local labour market approach. Bruegel Working Paper, 18 April 2018, Issue 02.
Dachs, B. (2018). The impact of new technologies on the labour market and the social economy. The STOA Project, The European Parliament's Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Panel.
Eurostat (2020). European Commission Eurostat [database]. Available from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database?node_code=org.
Falk, M. and Seim, K. (2001). The impact of information technology on high-skilled labor in services: Evidence from firm-level panel data. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 10(4), 289-323.
Fonseca, T., Lima, F. and Pereira, S. C. (2018). Job polarization, technological change and routinization: Evidence for portugal. Labour Economics, 51, 317-39.
Gera, S., Gu, W. and Lin, Z. (2001). Technology and the demand for skills in Canada: An industry-level analysis, Canadian Journal of Economics, 34(1), 132-48.
Goos, M. and Manning, A. (2007). Lousy and lovely jobs: the rising polarization of work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 118-33.
Goos, M., Manning, A. and Salamons, A. (2014). Explaining job polarization: routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509-26.
Griliches, Z. (1969). Capital-skill complementarity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, 465-68.
Haile, G., Srour, I. and Vivarelli, M. (2017). Imported technology and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Eurasian Business Review, 7(1), 1-23.
Ikenaga, T. (2009). Polarization of the Japanese Labor Market: The adoption of IT and changes in task contents. The Japanese Journal of Labour Studies, 584, 73-90.
ILO (2018). The impact of technology on the quality and quantity of jobs. The Future of Work, International Labour Office (ILO), Issue Brief Series No 6.
ILOSTAT (2020). International Labour Organization database [database]. Available from https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/.
Jaimovich, N. and Siu, H.E. (2012). The trend is the cycle: job polarization and jobless recoveries. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 18334, Revised November 2018.
Meschi, E., Taymaz, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2011). Trade, technology and skills: Evidence from Turkish microdata. Labour Economics, 18, 60–70.
Meschi, E., Taymaz, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2016). Globalization, technological change and labor demand: a firm level analysis for Turkey. Review of World Economics, 152, 655–80.
MGI (2018). Skill shift automation and the future of the workforce. McKinsey Global Institute, Discussion Paper, May 2018.
Michaels, G., Natraj, A. and Van Reenen, J. (2010). Has ICT polarized skill demand? Evidence from eleven countries over 25 years. NBER Working Paper, No. 16138.
Montresor, G. (2019). Job polarization and labour supply changes in the UK. Labour Economics, 58, 187-203.
Piva, M., Santarelli, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2005). The skill bias effect of technological and organisational change: Evidence and policy implications. Research Policy, 34(2), 141-57.
Piva, M., Santarelli, E. and Vivarelli, M. (2006). Technological and organizational changes as determinants of the skill bias: Evidence from the Italian machinery industry. Managerial and Decision Economics, 27, 63-73.
Raquel, S. and Federico, B. (2018). The routine biased technical change hypothesis: a critical review. Joint Research Centre, Technical Report, European Commission, Luxembourg.
Tinbergen, J. (1974). Substitution of graduate by other labour. Kyklos, 27(2), 217-26.
Tinbergen, J. (1975). Substitution of academically trained by other manpower. Review of World Economics, 111(3), 466-76.
Tuzemen, D. (2019) Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States. Economics Letters, 175, 97-100.
Vom Lehn, C. (2018). Understanding the decline in the U.S. labor share: Evidence from occupational tasks. European Economic Review, 108, 191–220.
Welch, F. (1970). Education in production. Journal of Political Economy, 78, 35-59.
World Bank (2020). The World Bank DataBank [database]. Available from https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx.

Toplam 40 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	İngilizce
Konular	Ekonomi
Bölüm	Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar	İbrahim Dağlı 0000-0001-8199-821X Levent Kösekahyaoğlu 0000-0002-5466-5396
Yayımlanma Tarihi	31 Ekim 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi	22 Mart 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2021 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 16

Kaynak Göster

APA	Dağlı, İ., & Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2021). Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market. İktisadi İdari Ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(16), 348-359. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.901039
AMA	Dağlı İ, Kösekahyaoğlu L. Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market. İKTİSAD. Ekim 2021;6(16):348-359. doi:10.25204/iktisad.901039
Chicago	Dağlı, İbrahim, ve Levent Kösekahyaoğlu. “Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market”. İktisadi İdari Ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi 6, sy. 16 (Ekim 2021): 348-59. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.901039.
EndNote	Dağlı İ, Kösekahyaoğlu L (01 Ekim 2021) Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi 6 16 348–359.
IEEE	İ. Dağlı ve L. Kösekahyaoğlu, “Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market”, İKTİSAD, c. 6, sy. 16, ss. 348–359, 2021, doi: 10.25204/iktisad.901039.
ISNAD	Dağlı, İbrahim - Kösekahyaoğlu, Levent. “Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market”. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi 6/16 (Ekim 2021), 348-359. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.901039.
JAMA	Dağlı İ, Kösekahyaoğlu L. Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market. İKTİSAD. 2021;6:348–359.
MLA	Dağlı, İbrahim ve Levent Kösekahyaoğlu. “Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market”. İktisadi İdari Ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, c. 6, sy. 16, 2021, ss. 348-59, doi:10.25204/iktisad.901039.
Vancouver	Dağlı İ, Kösekahyaoğlu L. Skill-Biased Technological Change and Job Polarization and Evidences from The Turkish Labor Market. İKTİSAD. 2021;6(16):348-59.