The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment, GDP, Export Volume and Air Transportation: Evidence from Japan and South Korea

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 24, 410 - 427, 30.06.2024

Ayşe Özge Artekin

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1405734

Öz

The major aim of this study is to reveal whether there is any empirical relationship between export volume, economic growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and air transport for Japan and South Korea in between 1979-2022 by performing the Johansen co-integration, impulse response, and variance decomposition analyzes. In this sense, according to the results of the Johansen co-integration test, it has been found that there is a long-term stable relationship among economic growth, FDI, export volume and air transport for Japan and South Korea between 1979 and 2022. In addition, both variance decomposition and impulse response analysis are applied in order to reveal the impact of economic growth, FDI and export volume on air transport, taking into account all countries including Japan and South Korea. The VAR model is used to test the linear interdependence among the four variables for the respective countries from 1979 to 2022. The lag orders of all VAR models are chosen as 2 according to the Akaike information criterion. After obtaining the VAR analysis as stationary, the impulse response model is employed to test the relationships between the relevant variables and which independent variable affected the dependent variable comparing to others. The results indicate that economic growth in South Korea between 1979 and 2022 has a strong impact on air transport compared to other independent variables except Japan. The results of variance decomposition analysis demonstrate parallelism with impulse response tests.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Air Transportation, Export Volume, Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, Cointegration Test.

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım, GSYİH, İhracat Hacmi ve Havayolu Taşımacılığı Arasındaki İlişki: Japonya ve Güney Kore'den Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, 1979-2022 dönemleri arasında Japonya ve Güney Kore için ihracat hacmi, ekonomik büyüme, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım (DYY) ve hava taşımacılığı arasında ampirik bir ilişki olup olmadığını Johansen eş-bütünleşme, etki tepki ve varyans ayrıştırması analizlerini uygulayarak sınamaktır. Bu bağlamda, Johansen eş bütünleşme testi bulgularına göre, 1979-2022 yılları arasında Japonya ve Güney Kore için ekonomik büyüme, DYY, ihracat hacmi ve hava taşımacılığı arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki mevcut olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, Japonya ve Güney Kore dâhil olmak üzere tüm ülkeler dikkate alınarak ekonomik büyüme, DYY ve ihracat hacminin hava taşımacılığı üzerindeki etkisini ortaya çıkarmak için hem varyans ayrıştırması hem de etki-tepki analizi uygulanmıştır. 1979'dan 2022'ye kadar ilgili ülkeler için dört değişken arasındaki ilişkinin var olup olmadığını test etmek için VAR modeli kullanılmıştır. Tüm VAR modellerinin gecikme uzunluğu Akaike bilgi kriterine göre 2 olarak seçilmiştir. VAR analizi durağan çıktıktan sonra ilgili değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri ve hangi bağımsız değişkenin bağımlı değişkeni daha fazla etkileyip etkilemediğini test etmek için etki tepki modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, 1979 – 2022 yılları arasında Japonya dışında Güney Kore'de ekonomik büyümenin diğer bağımsız değişkenlere kıyasla hava taşımacılığı üzerinde güçlü etkiye sahip olduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Varyans ayrıştırması analizi sonuçları ise etki tepki testleri ile paralellik göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Havayolu Taşımacılığı, İhracat Hacmi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım, Eş-bütünleşme Testi.

Kaynakça

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